一次春季黄海海雾和东海层云关系的研究

结合多种观测数据和数值模拟结果对2011年3月12—13日的一次黄海海雾过程进行分析。观测数据分析表明:此次黄海海雾过程与东海层云之间存在密切的联系。地面高低压位置为水汽从层云区向北输送提供了有利的环流条件;黄海上空天气尺度下沉运动,加强了海洋大气边界层(MABL)层结的稳定性,MABL顶自南向北高度降低,有利于水汽在向北输送过程中不断向海面聚集;下沉导致的干层以及逆温层对海雾的发生发展起重要作用。模式结果进一步证明天气尺度下沉运动与MABL内的下沉在29°—30°N附近同位相叠加,使得该海区上空的下沉运动明显增强,边界层高度迅速下降。下沉可能会导致气块温度升高,云滴蒸发,来自层云区的水汽随流场向北向下输送逐渐接近冷海面凝结成雾,近海面水汽的平流输送使海雾进一步向北发展。本研究为海雾预报提供新的参考思路。     

高速公路软土地基沉降变形监测分析与预报

通过对高速公路软土地基沉降变形监测的非等步长观测序列进行数据处理后,变成等步长的数据序列,运用GM(1,1)模型进行变形分析与预报,得出了有益的结论。     

Change of multifractal thermal characteristics in the western Philippine sea upper layer during internal wave-soliton propagation

The upper layer (above 140 m depth) temperature in the western Philippine Sea near Taiwan was sampled using a coastal monitoring buoy (CMB) with 15 attached thermistors during July 28–August 7, 2005. The data were collected every 10 min at 1, 3, 5, 10, 15, and 20 m using the CMB sensors, and every 15 sec at 15 different depths between 25 m and 140 m. Internal waves and solitons were identified from the time-depth plot of the temperature field. Without the internal waves and solitons, the power spectra, structure functions, and singular measures (representing the intermittency) of temperature field satisfy the power law with multi-scale characteristics at all depths. The internal waves do not change the basic characteristics of the multifractal structure. However, the internal solitons change the power exponent of the power spectra drastically, especially in the low wave number domain; they also break down the power law of the structure function and increase the intermittency parameter. The physical mechanisms causing these different effects need to be explored further.     

基于稳定同位素方法的吕泗渔场近岸海域主要生物潜在碳源及营养级分析

基于稳定同位素方法,对2018年吕泗渔场近岸海域夏季主要生物种类的潜在碳源及其营养级进行分析,利用IsoSource模型计算该海域消费者的3大碳源（浮游植物、悬浮颗粒有机物、底质有机物）贡献值,并比较叠加潜在碳源影响前后主要生物种类的营养级变化。结果表明,浮游植物和底质有机物对37种主要生物种类的贡献比例分别为58.7%和28.2%,而悬浮颗粒有机物的贡献较小。因此判定吕泗渔场近岸海域夏季主要生物种类的潜在碳源主要是浮游植物和底质有机物。通过分别叠加3大潜在碳源和单一物种作为基准值构建两个营养级谱,右营养级谱的生物种类营养级范围为1.74～3.92,比左营养级谱平均下降0.19个营养级,尽管两个营养级谱的整体趋势走向不变,但部分鱼类和多数虾类的营养位置发生改变。右营养级谱的基准值随着潜在碳源叠加比例的不同而变化,能有效反映生物营养级,更适用于低营养级的虾蟹类。但对于处于中高级消费者位置的鱼类来说,这种叠加的效果影响不大。     

A comparison of the main methods for estimating probabilities of extreme still water levels

Sea-level return periods are estimated at 18 sites around the English Channel using: (i) the annual maxima method; (ii) the r-largest method; (iii) the joint probability method; and (iv) the revised joint probability method. Tests are undertaken to determine how sensitive these four methods are to three factors which may significantly influence the results; (a) the treatment of the long-term trends in extreme sea level; (b) the relative magnitudes of the tidal and non-tidal components of sea level; and (c) the frequency, length and completeness of the available data. Results show that unless sea-level records with lengths of at least 50 years are used, the way in which the long-term trends is handled in the different methods can lead to significant differences in the estimated return levels. The direct methods (i.e. methods i and ii) underestimate the long (> 20 years) period return levels when the astronomical tidal variations of sea level (relative to a mean of zero) are about twice that of the non-tidal variations. The performance of each of the four methods is assessed using prediction errors (the difference between the return periods of the observed maximum level at each site and the corresponding data range). Finally, return periods, estimated using the four methods, are compared with estimates from the spatial revised joint probability method along the UK south coast and are found to be significantly larger at most sites along this coast, due to the comparatively short records originally used to calibrate the model in this area. The revised joint probability method is found to have the lowest prediction errors at most sites analysed and this method is recommended for application wherever possible. However, no method can compensate for poor data.     

SSA1—1型声学水位在长江口潮位站的应用

本文介绍了长江口区水文泥沙概况，举例说明了ＳＳＡ１－１型声水位计在崇头潮位站比测试验和投产应用情况，结果表明该水位计是收集长江口区潮位资料较理想的仪器。     

Response of a climate model to tidal mixing parameterization under present day and last glacial maximum conditions

Experiments with a climate model were conducted under present day and last glacial maximum conditions in order to examine the model’s response to a vertical mixing scheme based on internal tide energy dissipation. The increase in internal tide energy flux caused by a 120 m reduction in sea level had the expected effect on diffusivity values, which were higher under lower sea level conditions. The impact of this vertical diffusivity change on the Atlantic meridional overturning is not straightforward and no clear relationship between diffusivity and overturning is found. There exists a weak positive correlation between overturning and changes to the power consumed by vertical mixing. Most of the climatic response generated by sea level change was not related to alterations in the internal tide energy flux but rather to the direct change in sea level itself.     

Lacustrine basin unconventional resource plays: Key differences

There has been a revival in hydrocarbon source rock characterization and development associated with growing interest in unconventional resources, where these fine-grained organic-rich rocks act as both source and reservoir. To-date, the exploration focus on shale reservoirs has been largely on marine systems. Lacustrine source rocks for conventional resources are geographically important, dominating regions such as China, Indonesia, and Brazil's resource-base. However, they have been generally untested for unconventional resources.There are a number of key differences in the nature of these hydrocarbon systems that should be considered when assessing whether lacustrine systems may represent future unconventional opportunities in areas where the conventional resource-base is dominated by lacustrine-sourced oil. Among the key differences between these depositional systems is the greater sensitivity to high frequency climatic variability within lacustrine systems. Lacustrine systems are highly sensitive to changes in the balance between precipitation and evaporation, which may lead to rapid changes in lake level, potentially exceeding 600 m. These changes in depositional conditions are geologically rapid and may occur over periods of thousands of years. Such changes can reduce the areal extent of potentially thick source rock intervals to only those portions of a basin where a permanent deep lake was present. Thus the core unconventional target area may be geographically limited compared with their marine counterpart. Although potentially areally limited, a review of many lacustrine source rocks suggests that their thicknesses are often significantly greater than marine source rocks. An examination of the more distal portions of lacustrine systems, where better source rock potential is present reveals that there is generally limited connectivity between source and conventional reservoir. In these settings, such as the Wind River basin (Waltman Shale), the hydrocarbons remain trapped within the shales, potentially leading to over-pressured hydrocarbon charged systems. Such conditions suggest that although areally limited, viable unconventional targets may exist, if suitable reservoir conditions are present. Finally, the character of the oils produced is different in these settings, with lacustrine oils being waxy and displaying different hydrocarbon generation and cracking kinetics. High wax oils display distinct flow characteristics, being more viscous, and may offer different production challenges than their non-waxy marine equivalents. Additionally, differences in their cracking kinetics may indicate that the timing of gas generation for shale gas plays may differ significantly from marine systems.     

Role of piles in mitigating the movement of pipes in soft grounds during embankment loading

Abstract

Pipes buried in soft ground can be damaged due to the vertical and lateral movement of the ground during the construction of the embankment. To investigate such a movement of the soft ground, full-scale tests using embankment piles and stabilizing piles were conducted for 70?days. A pile-supported embankment has been used to reduce the deformation of soft ground by transferring the embankment load through piles to the firm layer below the soft ground, whereas stabilizing piles have been employed to resist the lateral earth pressure that is induced in soft ground by embankment loads. The Coupling Area (CA), which was defined as the quantitative index to determine the resistance effect of both settlement and lateral flow of the soft ground when the embankment was reinforced, is adapted. The analysis results of the CA indicate that the piled embankment was more effective for preventing the damage to buried pipe installed near the embankment, while the stabilizing piles had almost the same effect as the piled embankment when the pipe was buried far away from the embankment.