Truncation of the distribution of ground-motion residuals

Recent studies to assess very long-term seismic hazard in the USA and in Europe have highlighted the importance of the upper tail of the ground-motion distribution at the very low annual frequencies of exceedance required by these projects. In particular, the use of an unbounded lognormal distribution to represent the aleatory variability of ground motions leads to very high and potentially unphysical estimates of the expected level of shaking. Current practice in seismic hazard analysis consists of truncating the ground-motion distribution at a fixed number (ε _max) of standard deviations (σ). However, there is a general lack of consensus regarding the truncation level to adopt. This paper investigates whether a physical basis for choosing ε _max can be found, by examining records with large positive residuals from the dataset used to derive one of the ground-motion models of the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project. In particular, interpretations of the selected records in terms of causative physical mechanisms are reviewed. This leads to the conclusion that even in well-documented cases, it is not possible to establish a robust correlation between specific physical mechanisms and large values of the residuals, and thus obtain direct physical constraints on ε _max. Alternative approaches based on absolute levels of ground motion and numerical simulations are discussed. However, the choice of ε _max is likely to remain a matter of judgment for the foreseeable future, in view of the large epistemic uncertainties associated with these alternatives. Additional issues arise from the coupling between ε _max and σ, which causes the truncation level in terms of absolute ground motion to be dependent on the predictive equation used. Furthermore, the absolute truncation level implied by ε _max will also be affected if σ is reduced significantly. These factors contribute to rendering a truncation scheme based on a single ε _max value impractical.     

杭州地区大气水分特征及相关问题的初步探讨

用1951年1月至2003年12月NCEP/NCAR再分析格点比湿、垂直速度资料,以及杭州站降水量资料,分析了杭州地区对流层整层可降水量、低层空气垂直上升运动强度以及地面降水量的演变特点。结果发现,可降水量与低层空气垂直上升运动具有显著的年代际变化,且这两者均利于降水的时段,降水量不一定偏多,这说明空中水资源具有很大的开发空间。对杭州6月大气可降水量的长期变化特征与全球同纬度地区作了对比,发现近53年来,杭州地区6月份降水量处于下降趋势。     

2022年1月8日青海门源6.9级地震机器学习地震预警震级估计与现地阈值报警的回溯验证

2022年1月8日1时45分青海省海北州门源县发生6.9级地震, 周边地区普遍有感, 并导致多条高铁线路临时停运. 本文利用这次地震获取的大量烈度计加速度记录, 基于正在进行系统研发的机器学习地震预警方法模块, 对地震预警震级估计与现地阈值报警进行了回溯验证. 结果表明: 在地震发生后3.1 s, 震级估计为6.5级, 且震级估计误差不受信噪比和震中距变化的影响, 随着首台触发后时间的增加, 震级估计逐渐接近实际震级. 对于现地地震动速度峰值PGV(Peak Ground Velocity)预测, 各个台站在P波到达后3 s时, 预测PGV与观测PGV呈现1:1线性关系, 随着P波到达后时间窗的增加, 预测PGV逐步接近观测PGV, 且PGV预测误差不受信噪比和震中距变化的影响. 现地台站仪器烈度阈值设置为Ⅵ度时, 报警成功、误报、漏报的百分比分别为99.53%、0%、0.47%, 平均预警时间为19.62 s, 且地震烈度Ⅵ度区内没有发生误报和漏报; 现地台站仪器烈度阈值设置为Ⅶ度时, 报警成功、误报、漏报的百分比分别为99.77%、0%、0.23%, 平均预警时间为9.69 s, 且地震烈度Ⅶ度区内没有发生误报和漏报. 此次回溯验证结果表明: 机器学习方法在这次地震中可以得到鲁棒的震级估计和现地阈值报警结果, 并为该方法的在线测试以及中国地震预警系统升级提供可行性依据; 其次, 在这次地震事件中, 烈度计可为预警提供额外的作用, 这也为烈度计在未来地震预警的研究和应用中提供了更多的可能性.

     

我国断层气测量在地震科学研究中的应用现状

氢气被认为是反应断裂活动最灵敏的地球化学组分之一。研究影响断裂带氢浓度动态变化的主要因素,是科学分析断裂带氢与构造活动关系的基础工作。本文基于河南内乡马山口断层气氢气浓度与辅助测项的连续观测资料,重点分析了氢浓度变化与地温、气温、气压的相关关系,确定了主要影响因素。结果表明,氢气浓度日变化极值介于气温和地温之间,极值点靠近地温一侧。使用逐步回归方法分析进一步证明,地温、温度对氢气浓度均有影响,但地温影响更显著,气压影响不显著。总体来讲,氢浓度会受到地温和气温的双重影响,但与地温关系更为密切。     

Spatial-temporal characterization of the San Andreas Fault by fault-zone trapped waves at seismic experiment site,Parkfield, California

In this article, we review our previous research for spatial and temporal characterizations of the San Andreas Fault (SAF) at Parkfield, using the fault-zone trapped wave (FZTW) since the middle 1980s. Parkfield, California has been taken as a scientific seismic experimental site in the USA since the 1970s, and the SAF is the target fault to investigate earthquake physics and forecasting. More than ten types of field experiments (including seismic, geophysical, geochemical, geodetic and so on) have been carried out at this experimental site since then. In the fall of 2003, a pair of scientific wells were drilled at the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD) site; the main-hole (MH) passed a ～200-m-wide low-velocity zone (LVZ) with highly fractured rocks of the SAF at a depth of ～3.2 km below the wellhead on the ground level (Hickman et al., 2005; Zoback, 2007; Lockner et al., 2011). Borehole seismographs were installed in the SAFOD MH in 2004, which were located within the LVZ of the fault at ～3-km depth to probe the internal structure and physical properties of the SAF. On September 282004, a M6 earthquake occurred ～15 km southeast of the town of Parkfield. The data recorded in the field experiments before and after the 2004 M6 earthquake provided a unique opportunity to monitor the co-mainshock damage and post-seismic heal of the SAF associated with this strong earthquake. This retrospective review of the results from a sequence of our previous experiments at the Parkfield SAF, California, will be valuable for other researchers who are carrying out seismic experiments at the active faults to develop the community seismic wave velocity models, the fault models and the earthquake forecasting models in global seismogenic regions.     

形态参数下地表采动裂缝三维建模及可视化方法

实现对地表采动裂缝的三维建模及可视化能促进裂缝的形状、成因研究,并为开采沉陷监测和生态环境恢复提供科学支持。目前三维建模方法和软件主要面向建筑物、管道、地质体等地物地貌,若直接应用于地表裂缝的建模与表达会存在野外测绘工作量大、形态规律表达不准确、呈现不逼真等问题。本文结合三维地形建模、分形、空间插值等理论,提出了基于几何形态参数的地表裂缝三维建模方法,并利用ArcEngine平台实现了对裂缝的三维可视化;选取甘肃省东峡矿区为试验区,根据裂缝分布与形态预计参数,实现了对区域内裂缝的模拟,并通过与实测数据和高分辨率影像进行对比,验证了该方法能真实逼真呈现裂缝的形态、延伸与细节信息。     

地铁暗挖施工引起的管线与地层沉降关系研究

依托北京地铁4号线公益西桥站工程,建立结构-地层-管线三维弹塑性数值模型,基于管线周边地层沉降及地表沉降实测数据分析,研究西南出入口暗挖施工上方管线周边地层变形规律。通过现场实测数据、数值模拟及经验公式计算结果综合对比,分析了管线刚度对地层变形抵制作用的影响。研究表明：管土相对刚度小于0.18时,管线与土体沉降差小于5%,可用经验公式计算出的管线轴线处地层沉降代替管线沉降。随管线刚度的增大,管线对土体变形的抑制作用逐渐增强,沿深度方向地层沉降量增大速率减小,并会出现负增长,甚至出现地层沉降小于地表沉降的情况。通过对数值计算结果的拟合分析,提出了刚性接头管线与地表沉降比和管土相对刚度的经验公式。工程实例应用结果表明,计算值与实测值偏差小于4%,验证了该方法的适用性。     

CHARACTERISTICS OF TORSIONAL GROUND MOTIONS

Due to the inherent difficulty in directly recording the rotational ground motions, torsional ground motions have to be estimated from the recorded spatially varying translational motions. In this paper, an empirical coherency function, which is based on the recorded motions at the SMART-1 array, is suggested to model the spatial variation of translational motions. Then, the torsional ground motion power spectral density function is derived. It depends on the translational motion power spectral density function and the coherency function. Both the empirical coherency function and the torsional motion power spectral density function are verified by the recorded motions at the SMART-1 array. The response spectra of the torsional motions are also estimated. Discussion on the relations between the torsional motion response spectrum and the corresponding translational motion response spectrum is made. Numerical results presented can be used to estimate the torsional ground motion power spectral density function and response spectrum.     

上边界条件对多年冻土地温场数值模拟结果的影响分析

以玛多地区多年冻土为背景,建立多年冻土地温场的数值计算模型,以不同的方式考虑近 60 a 来的气温变化构成不同的上边界条件,通过模型计算分析不同上边界条件下的不同时期温度场、未来冻土退化特征.结果表明：在上边界条件中采用气象站实测近60 a波动温度值和采用近60 a平均恒定值时,浅层冻土地温差异明显,且越浅层地温与越近时间的上边界条件相关.预测未来100 a冻土地温变化趋势发现,相同升温速率和升温初始温度条件下,上边界采用实测60 a波动温度值对冻土退化过程影响较小;升温初始温度值提高到与趋势线衔接后,冻土退化起始时间从约第45年提前到约第20年;60 a实测温度和升温初始温度值均提高到与其初始温度场上边界条件衔接后,冻土退化起始时间从约第20年提前到约第15年;冻土退化从开始到完全退化经历时间为25 a左右.