马尔科夫理论的优化灰色模型预测建模

针对GM(1,1)模型易受建模数据随机扰动影响,且模型稳定性较差的问题,该文提出了基于马尔科夫(Markov)理论的GM(1,1)预测优化模型。首先,通过最小二乘原理选取GM(1,1)模型的最优初值,利用指数函数法构造新的背景值,同时利用正化残差序列法进一步修正残差。然后,将优化的GM(1,1)模型和马尔科夫理论有机结合,进一步对优化的GM(1,1)模型进行改进,构建了优化的灰色马尔科夫预测模型。最后,以某建筑物的变形实测数据为基础,进行了传统GM(1,1)预测模型、优化的GM(1,1)预测模型和优化的灰色马尔科夫预测模型的实例计算比较,结果表明:优化的灰色马尔科夫预测模型的拟合精度和预测精度优于传统GM(1,1)预测模型和优化的GM(1,1)预测模型,且适用性更强,稳定性更好。     

Maintaining grassroots activism: Transition Towns in Aotearoa New Zealand

As a result of burgeoning social and environmental issues, localisation movements such as Transition Towns are emerging. However, tension exists as to the best scale and method to create and maintain this community activism. In this study, we explore the activities of two Transition Towns in Aotearoa New Zealand through a qualitative mixed methodology, and argue that relational notions of scale and the notion of progressive localisms enable an appreciation of the locally rooted but outward looking nature of Transition activities. In turn, this creates space to acknowledge the diffuse nature of change, redefine success and sustain momentum.     

都市圈中心城市经济辐射力的分形测度及影响因素——基于北京、上海、广州的实证研究

依据中心城市和受辐射城市并构建测度指标体系,引入城市间距离对分形模型进行改进,对我国三大都市圈中心城市的经济辐射力进行客观、全面的分析比较。研究发现:上海对半径300 km范围的辐射力与北京对半径200 km范围的辐射力相当,而广州对半径200 km范围的辐射力相对较差;3个中心城市行政地位差别很大,但政策支持力度对辐射力的影响与其他影响因素相比并无明显优势;金融业发展是辐射力最重要的影响因素,辐射力对城市货运能力和客运能力的依赖度有明显差异。     

两种常用的春玉米干旱等级指标在东北区域的适用性检验

作物干旱等级农业气象指标是开展作物干旱监测、预警和评估的科学依据,其适用性关系到农业气象业务质量和防灾减灾效果。应用东北地区31个春玉米代表站1981 2012年逐日气象资料、土壤湿度资料、玉米生长发育观测资料及产量资料,对东北地区春玉米不同生育阶段土壤相对湿度和水分亏缺指数干旱等级指标进行应用效果检验,比较适用性差异,并利用黑龙江省2013—2016年的资料进行干旱实例分析。结果表明,土壤湿度和水分亏缺指数干旱等级指标均适用于东北区域春玉米不同生长时段干旱识别,且有较好的一致性,两套指标判定的春玉米干旱等级完全相同的占75%左右,相同和基本相同的占95%左右。两套指标对历史和近年玉米干旱事件的判识效果都较好,土壤湿度指标和水分亏缺指数的干旱识别正确率分别在80%和75%以上,土壤湿度指标判定效果更好。两套指标在玉米生育前、中期适宜性略好于后期,在东北三省的应用效果要略好于内蒙古东部,部分干旱年份水分亏缺指数判定的灾情等级偏高,因此,当两套指标判定结果存在差异时,应以土壤相对湿度指标判定结果为准。     

雷击大地密度Ng数值研究

雷击大地密度Ng作为一个重要的气象参数,直接影响雷电灾害风险评估的科学计算。Ng数值的获取有两种方式:一种是由地闪定位网络系统提供,一种是按Ng≈0.1T_d(年均雷暴日)估算。在利用后一种方法获取Ng值时,简单地取0.1T_d并非科学。因为T_d是较大区域范围的平均值,未必是雷电灾害风险评估项目所处区域的真实值;况且Ng值不仅受T_d的影响,还与雷暴时间、雷暴路径、闪电特征、雷灾频次与强度有关。因此,利用后一种方法获取Ng值时,需计入其他气象因素的影响。基于对影响Ng的各种气象因素的分析,将焦作市按行政区划定为65个区域,根据各个区域的气象环境,分析出各个区域的雷电灾害风险等级;根据风险等级,设定风险系数,并结合周边区域气象因素对该区域的影响,计算出Ng的修正系数,修正Ng的取值,使修正后的Ng值更接近真实值。     

Structural analysis and implicit 3D modelling of high-grade host rocks to the Venetia kimberlite diatremes,Central Zone,Limpopo Belt,South Africa

The Beit Bridge Complex of the Central Zone (CZ) of the Limpopo Belt hosts the 519 ± 6 Ma Venetia kimberlite diatremes. Deformed shelf- or platform-type supracrustal sequences include the Mount Dowe, Malala Drift and Gumbu Groups, comprising quartzofeldspathic units, biotite-bearing gneiss, quartzite, metapelite, metacalcsilicate and ortho- and para-amphibolite. Previous studies define tectonometamorphic events at 3.3–3.1 Ga, 2.7–2.5 Ga and 2.04 Ga. Detailed structural mapping over 10 years highlights four deformation events at Venetia. Rules-based implicit 3D modelling in Leapfrog Geo™ provides an unprecedented insight into CZ ductile deformation and sheath folding. D₁ juxtaposed gneisses against metasediments. D₂ produced a pervasive axial planar foliation (S₂) to isoclinal F₂ folds. Sheared lithological contacts and S₂ were refolded into regional, open, predominantly southward-verging, E–W trending F₃ folds. Intrusion of a hornblendite protolith occurred at high angles to incipient S₂. Constrictional-prolate D₄ shows moderately NE-plunging azimuths defined by elongated hornblendite lenses, andalusite crystals in metapelite, crenulations in fuchsitic quartzite and sheath folding. D₄ overlaps with a: 1) 2.03–2.01 Ga regional M₃ metamorphic overprint; b) transpressional deformation at 2.2–1.9 Ga and c) 2.03 Ga transpressional, dextral shearing and thrusting around the CZ and d) formation of the Avoca, Bellavue and Baklykraal sheath folds and parallel lineations.     

水环境质量评价的灰色聚类法

运用灰色聚类法对甘肃金昌市地下水质进行了评价,并与模糊数学方法作了比较。结果表明灰色聚类法不仅具有模糊数学的优点,又弥补了其不完善之处。因此,用灰色聚类法评价水质,方法简便,结论更符合客观实际。     

以数值预报产品为基础的大到暴雪预报系统

利用Ｔ６３数值预报产品,根据灰色系统原理,研制出河南省暴雨２４小时预报系统,并于１９９６年冬季（１９９６年１１月～次年３月）实时业务工作中逐日试报,取得了较为满意的结果,该方法简单明了,便于使用。     

一种基于时序数据的动态聚类分析方法

本文基于灰色关联度和模糊聚类分析原理及多目标决策技术,提出了一种基于时间序列数据的动态聚类分析方法,并以复杂的城市化进程为例加以应用,得出了一些有意义的结果。实践证明,该方法适合于多指标、多时段的（复杂）动态系统建模。     

The Granulite-Facies Rocks of the Northern Segment of the Ribeira Belt, Eastern Minas Gerais, SE Brazil

Granulite rocks are exposed in eastern Minas Gerais, Brazil. Its early neoproterozoic evolution is characterised by a history of an active continental margin, including the accretion of suspect terranes. The Manhuaçu Terrane is one of those which is represented by a granitic continental plutonic arc and terrigeneous metasediments reflecting a continental margin. A metasedimentary gneiss belt at this margin with shallow to deep marine clastic lithologies as well as metavolcanic and metaplutonic mafic rocks was interpreted as an extensive tectonic segment with suspect development in a back-arc setting. Fragments of a volcanic arc are identified and interpreted as an evidence for a probable island-arc domain. The granulites occur as massive rocks as well as high-grade gneisses and show lithological, structural and metamorphic attributes consistent with their host belt type. In the western portion granulites derived from sedimentary protoliths, have been deposited, deformed and metamorphosed together with the mafic intrusions and as well as with their crystallization. Regional uplift exposed these rocks probably immediately after the metamorphism. In these belts the metamorphic grade is not uniform, especially where uplifting has exposed oblique cross sections over the granulitic rocks. Geothermobarometric calculations indicate that the granulites has been generated under T conditions between 800 and 990 ± 50 C and from medium (4.8 kb) to relatively high (10.0 kb) pressures.