深远海调查作业流程的探索与思考

随着海洋活动的进一步开展、海洋资源的深入研究以及近年来国内外海底观测技术的大力发展,对深远海调查作业规范化、程序化及安全性的要求也逐步提高。文章以"大洋一号"船实践经验为例,分析定点取样类、拖曳类、走航探测类3类作业的区别、特点及安全要素,探索建立安全性更高的深远海调查作业流程及应急处置通则。文章认为应对不同条件下作业流程的制定进行进一步的探索和细化,应根据船舶、海区环境、作业类别、设备特点及人员配备等实际情况制定行之有效的适应本航次要求的作业流程,以支撑调查作业有序、快速、安全、可靠的开展。     

产业技术变迁与全球技术创新体系空间演化

以1990~2014年全球96个国家和地区为研究对象,在对全球产业技术变迁研究基础上,对全球技术创新体系的等级层次性及其演化机制进行研究。结果发现： ① IPC（International Patent Classification,国际专利分类）-USPC（United States Patent Classification,美国专利分类）-NAICS（North American Industry Classification System,北美产业分类体系）的专利分类至产业分类识别系统为研究不同空间尺度下的产业技术创新变迁提供了全新的视角和方法,全球最具创新力的产业有着由机械产业向信息通信产业变迁的趋势;② 以信息通信产业、机械产业、电气设备产业和医疗设备产业为代表的全球产业技术创新能力在这25 a间都呈现出显著的两极分化和空间集聚趋势;③ 全球技术创新体系正由大西洋格局向太平洋格局演进,东亚地区成为全球技术创新的增长极;④ 国家研发支出规模、国家经济规模和国家文化包容性对国家技术创新能力有着明显的正向影响,但研发人员数量和国家人口总数对国家技术创新能力的作用不明显。     

Evaluation and Driving Force Analysis of Marine Sustainable Development based on the Grey Relational Model and Path Analysis

With the rapid development of the marine economy, the demand for marine resources development and the pressure on marine environmental protection are gradually increasing. It is critical to evaluate and analyze the driving forces of marine sustainable development in order to promote the coordinated development of the marine economy, resources and environment. Taking Jiangsu Province of China as an example, this paper constructs an evaluation index system for marine sustainable development from the three aspects of marine economy, resources and environment, and calculates the weight of the variation coefficient for each indicator. Based on the grey relational model, the average value of the relational degree, calculated by the average value method of correlation coefficients and the weighting method, is then used to evaluate the status of marine sustainable development in this province. The comprehensive index model is used to analyze the dynamic trend of the evolution of marine sustainable development. The driving forces of marine sustainable development are analyzed by the path analysis method combined with the average values of the grey relational degree for each indicator. This analysis found that the marine sustainable development in 2016 and 2012 was good, the situation in 2007 was bad, and the remaining years were intermediate. Compared with the previous years, the optimal conditions of 2008 and 2012 were obvious. The main driving factors of marine sustainable development are cargo throughput of coastal ports, economic losses caused by storm surges in coastal areas, the area of marine nature reserves in coastal areas, coastal wind power generation capacity, and marine biodiversity.     

滑坡前兆突变异常识别方法

将滑坡位移观测值时间序列视为非平稳随机过程, 采用建立系统的同态模型的方法提取短期异常 , 并给出了异常识别准则、有序度计算公式; 用一阶差分进行高通滤波的方法提取临滑异常并进行预测; 根据异常时刻组成的灾变日期集用灰色灾变模型进行预测。     

聊城市种植业优势产业选择研究

运用多目标灰色局势决策理论方法,结合聊城市具体实际,按照产值、收入、分业比重等指标,分析和确定聊城市各县市区的优势产业,并提出最佳发展方案。     

圈闭含油气性信息灰色聚集ART网络聚类评价法

对托库测区 10种物探综合信息进行油气圈闭性评价,采用信息灰色聚集法压缩信息形成灰色聚集样本属性,采用ART网络聚类法自动对聚集信息进行聚类分析,达到圈闭含油气性评价的目的。该方法具有智能化程度和可信度较高的特点。     

System Analysis of Disaster Prevention Design Criteria for Coastal and Estuarine Cities

—In China,estuarine and coastal cities are mostly regional economic development centers.Thedisasters by combined effect of upper reach flood,storm surge and typhoon waves are primary obstaclesto the economic development of such cities.Thus the risk analysis and system analysis of flood-stormsurge-wave disaster,economic loss and flood-storm surge control measures play a very important role inthe sustainable development of coastal cities.There are three types of coastal cities for consideration.Thefirst type of city is like Tianjin.The most significant damage is from the upper reach flood.The effect ofstorm surge is negligible,because in the estuary of the Haihe River,tidal locks are built.The Grey MarkovModel(GMM)is used to forecast the flood peak level.GMM combines the Grey system and the Markovtheory into a high-precision model.The predicted flood peak levels are close to the measured data.A syn-thetic model is established for economic assessment,risk analysis and flood-control benefit estimation.Asa n     

西藏那曲牧区雪灾损失的多因子灰色关联分析

通过那曲地区牧区雪灾的定性分析,应用灰色系统理论的关联分析方法,以1985年、1995年两次雪灾的平均损失率为参考数列;以气温、降水、稳定的积雪日数、草地退化比例、草场实际载畜量、草地超载比例,冬储草量作为比较数列,对那曲地区雪灾损失进行多因素关联分析。研究结果客观、定量地揭示了雪灾损失与各影响因素之间的相互关系,为那曲地区雪灾的抗灾防灾提供了科学的依据。     

用灰色关联法探讨干旱地区蒸发器的代表性

本文以20m²蒸发池为标准,选定咍地坡站和阿克苏站1982-1988年的部分同期观测资料,研究其它蒸发器的代表性。采用灰色关联法计算各种蒸发器与20m²蒸发器的关联度。结果表明:咍地坡站,ф20cm的关联度最高,其次为ITII-3000;阿克苏站,ITII-3000型关联度最高,其次为E-601。该结果与20m²蒸发量与各型号的线性相关分析结果不同。哈地坡站线性相关系数以ITII-3000最大,其次足E-601;阿克苏站以E-601最大,ITII-3000次之。     

龙羊峡水库入库径流变化特征及趋势预测

根据龙羊峡水库入库径流代表站－唐乃亥水文站年及汛期径流量观测资料,分析了入库径流的变化特征,并利用灰色系统中的残差序列周期修正ＧＭ（１,１）模型,对其近期及未来的变化趋势进行了预测。