Importance of programme design for potential US domestic GHG offset supply and quality

Greenhouse gas (GHG) offsets are a central feature of most regional and national cap-and-trade systems. A greenhouse offset credit represents a tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) reduced, avoided or sequestered by a project implemented specifically to compensate for emissions occurring elsewhere. Several existing modelling studies estimate the technically and economically achievable supply of GHG offsets from uncapped sources in the US. This analysis is among the few that consider how the design of offset protocols – and the corresponding rules for eligibility, measuring, verifying and awarding offsets – might impact actual offset crediting and the realization of GHG mitigation potential. The presented analysis demonstrates how rules for each of these factors could impact the supply of offset credits, as well as the emissions-reduction benefits of an offset programme. Findings indicate that although lenient offset rules and protocols may bring several times more credits to market than a conservative approach, these gains in offset supply would come at a significant cost to the effectiveness of the cap-and-trade system in achieving its central purpose: reducing overall GHG emissions. In particular, lenient rules and protocols could conceivably lead US emissions to exceed legislative targets by as much as 500 million tonnes CO₂e in 2020.     

澳大利亚能源活动温室气体排放清单编制经验及对我国的借鉴意义

通过对澳大利亚能源活动温室气体排放清单编制的分析,介绍了澳大利亚清单编制的研究框架、组织管理形式,在此基础上提出了健全我国清单编制管理机构、建立稳定畅通的数据来源渠道、逐步开展企业联网直报等建议。这些工作将有助于促使我国清单编制工作逐步常规化和标准化,及时为政策研究和决策制定提供基础数据并积极应对可能面临着递交频率增加和接受国际磋商和分析的挑战。     

瓦里关温室气体本底研究的主要进展

由于温室气体浓度显著增长及其在气候与环境变化中的作用,国际上众多的科学计划和观测体系都把它们的时空分布、源汇及趋势列为重要内容,获得的各种资料在评价人类活动对气候和环境的影响及有关对策研究中起着关键作用.文章阐述了在中国内陆本底地区开展温室气体长期、定点观测的意义和必要性,系统地讨论了10多年来中国瓦里关本底站温室气体本底研究的主要进展.利用瓦里关经严格国际比对和质量控制的大气C02、CH4长期观测资料,结合同期的地面风资料进行统计分析,建立了瓦里关大气C02和CH4本底资料筛选方法;利用本底观测资料,研究了瓦里关大气CO2及其δ13C、CH4和CO本底变化及源汇特征所体现的亚洲内陆地域特点和全球代表性,并进一步与同期、同纬度海洋边界层参比值(MBL)以及北半球其他6个大气本底站同期观测数据对比分析,发现了瓦里关大气CH4和CO独特的季节变化并探讨了成因;根据空气团后向轨迹簇所途经的下垫面源汇同观测的大气CO2和CH4浓度变化之间的关系,探讨了瓦里关大气CO2和CH4的输送来源;利用Hysplit-4扩散与输送模式,计算了冬、夏典型月份人为源和自然生态系统源汇对瓦里关大气CO2浓度变化的贡献.并在现有基础上,提出了有待进一步解决的科学问题.     

冰雪地球的研究进展综述

在大约6~7亿年前的新元古代时期，地球是否曾经被冰雪完全覆盖而成为了一个“冰雪地球”？如果是，什么诱发了这种全球性的冰川期？又是什么导致了它的融化？新元古代时期的极端气候变化对其后的寒武纪生命大爆发有何影响？围绕这些问题，古地质、古生物和古气候学界在最近几年展开了广泛的研究和激烈争论。根据现有的研究结果，地球在新元古代时期确实经历了数次地球历史上最为严重的全球性冰川期，但地球是否被完全冰封还需要更充分的古地质和古生物方面的证据来证明；利用气候模式对各种可能的外部强迫的模拟试验表明“冰雪地球”是很难形成的，并且，如果地球进入完全被冰封的状态，它将是难以被融化的；关于新元古代时期剧烈的气候变化对寒武纪生命大爆发所起的作用存在2种观点，一种认为气候变化导致了原始生命的基因突变并诱发了寒武纪生命爆发，另一种认为这种影响主要是生态方面的。     

A review of the geochemistry of methane in natural gas hydrate

The largest accumulations on Earth of natural gas are in the form of gas hydrate, found mainly offshore in outer continental margin sediment and, to a lesser extent, in polar regions commonly associated with permafrost. Measurements of hydrocarbon gas compositions and of carbon-isotopic compositions of methane from natural gas hydrate samples, collected in subaquatic settings from around the world, suggest that methane guest molecules in the water clathrate structures are mainly derived by the microbial reduction of CO₂ from sedimentary organic matter. Typically, these hydrocarbon gases are composed of > 99% methane, with carbon-isotopic compositions (δ¹³C_PDB) ranging from − 57 to − 73‰. In only two regions, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caspian Sea, has mainly thermogenic methane been found in gas hydrate. There, hydrocarbon gases have methane contents ranging from 21 to 97%, with δ¹³C values ranging from − 29 to − 57‰. At a few locations, where the gas hydrate contains a mixture of microbial and thermal methane, microbial methane is always dominant. Continental gas hydrate, identified in Alaska and Russia, also has hydrocarbon gases composed of > 99% methane, with carbon-isotopic compositions ranging from − 41 to − 49‰. These gas hydrate deposits also contain a mixture of microbial and thermal methane, with thermal methane likely to be dominant. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd     

Thermosphere–ionosphere response at middle and high latitudes during perturbed conditions: A case study

Neutral gas composition and ionospheric measurements taken by the Dynamic Explorer 2 satellite at F2-region heights (280–300 km) during an intense geomagnetic storm (peak Dst=−187 nT) were used to analyze the role of some possible physical mechanisms responsible for the changes of electron density at high and middle latitudes. The storm considered in this study occurred on 26 September 1982. The main features observed were increases of electron density during the initial stages of the storm at middle latitudes; followed by decreases of electron density at high and mid-high latitudes during the main phase of the storm and the first phase of the recovery. Delayed increases of electron density during the recovery phase have also been observed at mid-high latitudes (50–60°). Several mechanisms were discussed in explaining the features observed for the electron density variations.     

Kinetic Modeling the Formation of Low-mature Gases and Analysis of the Possibility to Be Accumulated

At present, shallow gases have received much attention due to low cost in exploration and production. Low-mature gases, as one significant origin to shallow gas, turns to be an important research topic. The present understanding of low-mature gases is confined within some geological cases, and few laboratory studies have been reported. Therefore, the potential and characters of low- mature gases are not clear up to now. Here, two premature samples （one coal and the other shale） were pyrolyzed in a gold confined system. The gaseous components including hydrocarbon gases and non-hydrocarbon gases were analyzed. Based on kinetic modeling, the formation of low-mature gases was modeled. The results showed that during low mature stage, about 178 mL/gTOC gas was generated from the shale and 100 mL/gTOC from the coal. Two third to three fourth of the generated gases are non-hydrocarbon gases such as H2S and CO2. The total yields of C1-5 for the two samples are almost the same, 30-40 mL/gTOC, but individual gaseous hydrocarbon is different. The shale has much lower C1 but higher C2-5, whereas the coal has higher C1 but lower C2-5. Hydrocarbon gases formed during low-mature stage are very wet. The stable carbon isotope ratios of methane range from -40‰ to -50‰ （PDB）, in good consistence with empiric criterion for low-mature gases summed up by the previous researchers. The generation characters suggest that the low-mature gases could be accumulated to form an economic gas reservoir, but most of them occur only as associated gases.     

Impact of climate change on runoff from a mid‐latitude mountainous catchment in central Japan

Hydrologic balance in high‐altitude, mid‐latitude mountain areas is important in terms of the water resources available to associated lowlands. This study examined how current and historical shifts in precipitation (P) patterns and concurrent increases in temperature (T) affected runoff (Q) and other hydrologic components in a mid‐latitude mountain catchment of central Japan, using a combination of long‐term data and a simplified hydrologic model, along with their stochastic treatment. The availability of intensive meteorological and hydrological data from the period 1997–2001 allowed the derivation of key relationships for the current climate that tie the forcing term to the parameters or state variables. By using the data recorded in the period 1965–2001, the force for driving the historical simulation was generated. Based on this model and historical shifts in P and T, the probability density functions of Q (pdf(Q)) was computed. A main novelty in this study is that such a stochastic representation, which is useful for considering the influence of projected shifts in environmental factors on the hydrologic budget, was provided. Despite the large increase in the rate of T in winter and spring, pdf(Q) in spring and summer varied appreciably during the time studied mainly because of an increase in snowmelt. An interannual change in whole‐year Q was robust to shifts in T because while Q in spring increased, in summer it decreased, implying a crucial effect of global warming on mountain hydrologic regimes is change in the timing of Q. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

温室气体源汇及其对气候影响的研究进展

从与人类活动密切相关的温室气体（CO2、CH4、N2O）源汇研究以及温室气体对气候环境的影响等方面论述温室气体研究进展.介绍了国内外有关温室气体源和汇研究,如岩溶系统碳循环、黄土中温室气体组分特征、森林和大陆边缘海二氧化碳、稻田和湿地甲烷排放等方面的研究成果和认识.介绍了冰芯温室气体的部分研究成果和国内外温室气体与气候关系研究中涉及的一些模式及重要结论.结合温室气体源汇及其与气候变化,指出了目前应重视的一些研究内容,如研究陆地和海洋生态系统的碳氮循环问题,温室气体浓度变化与气候变化的相互关系以及气候变化机制.