试论未来全球气候变化

未来全球气候变化是人们关注的重大课题。从内蒙古盐湖近２０ｋａ气候演变的研究可知，地质时期和历史时期气候波动变化是有规律可循的。用已经了解的这种变化规律来予测未来气候变化是有价值的。研究表明，未来１ｋａ左右全球为暖期，之后将进入下一个冰期。     

地幔流体的前缘研究

地幔流体是与地幔环境处于平衡的气体和挥发分。其主要化学组分为碳、氢、氧、氮、硫（ＣＨＯＮＳ）。它以富于地球内部原始组分为特征，但也包含部分再循环组分。地幔挥发分在弱还原条件下主要为ＣＯ２－Ｈ２Ｏ，强还原环境则以ＣＨ４－Ｈ２Ｏ－Ｈ２为主。地幔流体地球化学的重要性质为：（１）易溶于硅酸盐熔体；（２）净化作用；（３）再沉淀作用。近年来，有关地幔流体中稀有气体和挥发分的起源、分布及同位素组成等前缘领域的研究已取得重要进展。当前拟优先探索的问题包括气体裂化与金刚石成因，非生物成因地幔烃，地幔流体与成矿作用，以及地幔挥发分注入与地壳重熔等。     

The temporal and spatial characteristics of the surface air temperature variations over the Antarctic and its surrounding area

The characteristics of the spatial distribution, temporal variations trend and oscillation for the surface air temperature variations during 1957—1993 in the Antarctic and its surrounding area were analyzed. The results show that the short-time climate change in the Antarctic is complex both temporally and spatially. The Antarctic is by no means the strongest responding region to the global greenhouse effect. There is a distinguished difference in the trends of the temperature changes for the Antarctic and global mean, which could not be explained simply by the global greenhouse effect. Project supported by the National Antarctic Key Project of China (85-905).     

A Review of Research on Human Activity Induced Climate ChangeⅠ. Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols

Extensive research on the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, carbon cycle modeling, and the characterization of atmospheric aerosols has been carried out in China during the last 10 years or so. This paper presents the major achievements in the fields of emissions of greenhouse gases from agricultural lands, carbon cycle modeling, the characterization of Asian mineral dust, source identification of the precursors of the tropospheric ozone, and observations of the concentrations of atmospheric organic compounds. Special, more detailed Information on the emissions of methane from rice fields and the physical and chemical characteristics of mineral aerosols are presented.     

Sorption of carbon dioxide–methane mixtures

The paper reports the results of experiments concerning the sorption/desorption processes, observed under laboratory conditions, in two types of coal extracted from operational coal-mines in Poland, using CH₄ and CO₂ to observe their relative inter-reaction with the coal samples when introduced in varying proportions and conditions. Numerous studies concerning the sorption/desorption phenomena have described the operational mechanisms and the relationship of mine gases to the organically-created coal-body in mines. The differences in the behaviour of certain gases is twofold: firstly the essentially different characteristics of CO₂ and CH₄, and secondly the structure of the coal-bed itself: its degree of metamorphism and content of macerals. From the results yielded, it was observed that the divergence of the isotherms of sorption of CH₄ and other gases in comparison with the isotherms of sorption of CO₂ and a CO₂/CH₄ mixture differed and that the curve on the sorption isotherm was more clearly distinct after the introduction of CO₂ molecules to the system: coal with a higher degree of metamorphism—CH₄, which is closely related to the rigidity of the structure according to the level of metamorphism. Since coals with higher carbon content exhibit lower molecular bonding than low-carbonised coals, the characteristic feature of the bonds in the first case is their mobility. Knowledge of the physical and chemical properties of hard coals, as well as their interaction with mining gases, is of great use in solving problems concerned with the extraction of methane from mines or its storage in goafs.     

The impact of biofuel-induced food-price inflation on dietary energy demand and dietary greenhouse gas emissions

Dramatic increases in liquid biofuel production have led to concerns about associated impacts on food prices, with many modeling studies showing significant biofuel-related price inflation. In turn, by changing patterns of food demand, biofuel production may indirectly influence greenhouse gas emissions. We estimated changes to dietary energy (calorie) demand and greenhouse gas emissions embodied in average diets under different biofuel-related food-price scenarios for Brazil, China and the United States, using food-price projections and food-price elasticities. Average energy demand decreased in all countries, from about 40 kcal per person per day in Brazil under a moderate price inflation scenario – a reduction of 1% relative to the (2009) reference scenario – to nearly 300 per day in the United States with high price inflation – almost 8% of reference levels. However, emissions per calorie increased slightly in all three countries. In terms of total greenhouse gas emissions, the results are suggestive of overall reductions only in the United States, where average reductions ranged from about 40 to 110 kg of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per person per year. In China, the direction of impact is unclear, but the net change is likely to be small. Brazilian results were sensitive to parameter values and the direction and magnitude of impact is therefore uncertain. Despite the uncertainty, even small changes (positive or negative) in individual dietary emissions can produce large changes at the population level, arguing for the inclusion of the dietary pathway in greenhouse gas accounting of liquid biofuels.     

Origin and evolution of geothermal fluids from Las Tres Vírgenes and Cerro Prieto fields,Mexico – Co-genetic volcanic activity and paleoclimatic constraints

Major and trace elements, noble gases, and stable (δD, δ¹⁸O) and cosmogenic (³H, ¹⁴C) isotopes were measured from geothermal fluids in two adjacent geothermal areas in NW-Mexico, Las Tres Vírgenes (LTV) and Cerro Prieto (CP). The goal is to trace the origin of reservoir fluids and to place paleoclimate and structural-volcanic constraints in the region. Measured ³He/⁴He (R) ratios normalized to the atmospheric value (R_a = 1.386 × 10⁻⁶) vary between 2.73 and 4.77 and are compatible with mixing between a mantle component varying between 42 and 77% of mantle helium and a crustal, radiogenic He component with contributions varying between 23% and 58%. Apparent U–Th/⁴He ages for CP fluids (0.7–7 Ma) suggest the presence of a sustained ⁴He flux from a granitic basement or from mixing with connate brines, deposited during the Colorado River delta formation (1.5–3 Ma). Radiogenic in situ ⁴He production age modeling at LTV, combined with the presence of radiogenic carbon (1.89 ± 0.11 pmC – 35.61 ± 0.28 pmC) and the absence of tritium strongly suggest the Quaternary infiltration of meteoric water into the LTV geothermal reservoir, ranging between 4 and 31 ka BP. The present geochemical heterogeneity of LTV fluids can be reconstructed by mixing Late Pleistocene – Early Holocene meteoric water (58–75%) with a fossil seawater component (25–42%), as evidenced by Br/Cl and stable isotope trends. CP geothermal water is composed of infiltrated Colorado River water with a minor impact by halite dissolution, whereas a vapor-dominated sample is composed of Colorado River water and vapor from deeper levels. δD values for the LTV meteoric end-member, which are 20‰–44‰ depleted with respect to present-day precipitation, as well as calculated annual paleotemperatures 6.9–13.6 °C lower than present average temperatures in Baja California point to the presence of humid and cooler climatic conditions in the Baja California peninsula during the final stage of the Last Glacial Pluvial period. Quaternary recharge of the LTV geothermal reservoir is related to elevated precipitation rates during cooler-humid climate intervals in the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene. The probable replacement of connate water or pore fluids by infiltrating surface water might have been triggered by enhanced fracture and fault permeability through contemporaneous tectonic–volcanic activity in the Las Tres Vírgenes region. Fast hydrothermal alteration processes caused a secondary, positive δ¹⁸O-shift from 4‰ to 6‰ for LTV and from 2‰ to 4‰ for CP geothermal fluids since the Late Glacial infiltration.     

Origin of the Breno and Esino dolomites in the western Southern Alps (Italy): Implications for a volcanic influence

The Esino Limestone of the western Southern Alps represents a differentiated Ladinian-Lower Carnian (?) carbonate platform comprised of margin, slope and peritidal inner platform facies up to 1000 m thick. A major regional subaerial exposure event lead to coverage by another peritidal Lower Carnian carbonate platform (Breno Formation). Multiphase dolomitization affected the carbonate sediments. Petrographic examinations identified at least three main generations of dolomites (D1, D2, and D3) that occur as both replacement and fracture-filling cements. These phases have crystal-size ranges of 3–35 μm (dolomicrite D1), 40–600 μm (eu-to subhedral crystals D2), and 200 μm to 5 mm (cavity- and fracture-filling anhedral to subhedral saddle dolomite D3), respectively.The fabric retentive near-micritic grain size coupled with low mean Sr concentration (76 ± 37 ppm) and estimated δ¹⁸O of the parent dolomitizing fluids of D1 suggest formation in shallow burial setting at temperature ∼ 45–50 °C with possible contributions from volcanic-related fluids (basinal fluids circulated in volcaniclastics or related to volcanic activity), which is consistent with its abnormally high Fe (4438 ± 4393 ppm) and Mn (1219 ± 1418 ppm) contents. The larger crystal sizes, homogenization temperatures (D2, 108 ± 9 °C; D3, 111 ± 14 °C) of primary two-phase fluid inclusions, and calculated salinity estimates (D2, 23 ± 2 eq wt% NaCl; D3, 20 ± 4 eq wt% NaCl) of D2 and D3 suggest that they formed at later stages under mid-to deeper burial settings at higher temperatures from dolomitizing fluids of higher salinity, which is supported by higher estimated δ¹⁸O values of their parent dolomitizing fluids. This is also consistent with their high Fe (4462 ± 4888 ppm; and 1091 ± 1183 ppm, respectively) and Mn (556 ± 289 ppm and 1091 ± 1183 ppm) contents, and low Sr concentrations (53 ± 31 ppm and 57 ± 24 ppm, respectively).The similarity in shale-normalized (SN) REE patterns and Ce (Ce/Ce*)_SN and La (Pr/Pr*)_SN anomalies of the investigated carbonates support the genetic relationship between the dolomite generations and their calcite precursor. Positive Eu anomalies, coupled with fluid-inclusion gas ratios (N₂/Ar, CO₂/CH₄, Ar/He), high F⁻ concentration, high F/Cl and high Cl/Br molar ratios suggest an origin from diagenetic fluids circulated through volcanic rocks, which is consistent with the co-occurrence of volcaniclastic lenses in the investigated sequence.     

Salinity of the Archaean oceans from analysis of fluid inclusions in quartz

Fluids trapped in inclusions in well-characterized Archaean hydrothermal quartz crystals were analyzed by the extended argon–argon method, which permits the simultaneous measurement of chlorine and potassium concentrations. Argon and nitrogen isotopic compositions of the trapped fluids were also determined by static mass spectrometry. Fluids were extracted by stepwise crushing of quartz samples from North Pole (NW Australia) and Barberton (South Africa) 3.5–3.0-Ga-old greenstone belts. The data indicate that fluids are a mixture of a low salinity end-member, regarded as the Archaean oceanic water, and several hydrothermal end-members rich in Cl, K, N, and radiogenic parentless ⁴⁰Ar. The low Cl–K end-member suggests that the salinity of the Archaean oceans was comparable to the modern one, and that the potassium content of the Archaean oceans was lower than at present by about 40%. A constant salinity of the oceans through time has important implications for the stabilization of the continental crust and for the habitability of the ancient Earth.     

长江中下游六省大气甲烷柱浓度时空分布

甲烷(CH4)是造成气候变暖的主要温室气体之一。为了了解长江中下游水稻种植区CH4浓度的分布情况,本次研究基于温室气体观测卫星(greenhouse gases observing satellite,GOSAT)和大气红外探测仪(atmospheric infrared sounder,AIRS)卫星反演的数据产品,对我国长江中下游六省大气CH4柱浓度的时空分布特征进行了研究。研究结果表明,由GOSAT反演的长江中下游六省大气CH4浓度呈逐年增长趋势,其年均浓度由2011年的1817×10^?9增长至2018年的1875×10^?9,高于东三省、华北平原和全国平均水平。区域平均年增长量为8.2×10^?9 a^?1。各省年际增长幅度略有差异,纬度偏低的江西、湖南和浙江三省大气CH4浓度高且增长量偏大,纬度偏高的湖北、安徽和江苏三省大气CH4浓度略低且增长量偏小。长江中下游六省大气CH4呈现较强的季节变化特征,湖北、湖南、江西和浙江峰值出现在9月,安徽、江苏峰值出现在8月。垂直方向上长江中下游六省CH4浓度随气压降低,浓度逐渐减小,呈现出明显的季节变化特征,近地面层GOSAT反演的最高值出现在夏季,最低值出现在春季;高层最高值出现在秋季,最低值出现在春季。AIRS反演的大气CH4浓度空间分布上北高南低,与GOSAT反演结果不一致,可能由于AIRS主要反映了对流层中层大气状况而GOSAT更多的反映了近地面层大气CH4的变化。其垂直方向上呈现高度越高,浓度越低,不同高度上秋季浓度均最高。