利用前兆事件对云南地区地震进行中短期预测研究

对某些类型的主震事件, 进行中短期预测也许是可能的. 利用Varnes, Bufe和Varnes提出的破裂时间法模拟前兆地震能量加速释放模型,通过实际观测资料与理论公式的拟合, 可以建立主地震事件的中短期预测技术, 用以确定表示主震的地点、时间和震级大小. 本文使用的是云南区域台网的地震目录资料，覆盖的时间段为1965~2002年. 统计分析表明，在此37年时间内，等于或大于2.5级地震资料是相当完整的. 本文对云南地区的30次主震事件进行了模拟，其中25次主震事件由前兆序列模拟得到的预测时间和震级与实际值相当接近，主震震级预测精度约0.57个震级单位，假定已知前兆序列中最后一次事件，则预测主震发生时间误差约0.64年.对另外的5次主震事件，由于没有足够的前兆事件来充分确定前兆能量加速曲线或是存在对能量加速释放曲线的干扰事件，而不能进行破裂时间法模拟.本文的研究结果还表明，由于云南是破坏性地震和中小地震活跃的地区，因此，主地震与前兆事件最佳搜索半径不存在明显的线性关系.主震矩与系数k，m之间存在强烈的相关性，利用主震地震矩与系数的关系和限制指数m的取值范围，可进一步缩小预测时间和预测震级的最佳拟合区范围，提高了模拟主震事件的预测精度. 本文采用破裂时间法对30次主震事件进行拟合，80％以上获得了较好的结果. 显示出该方法在预测已知主震事件序列的能力方面大有希望，因此，利用前兆事件对未来主震事件进行中短期预测的前景是令人鼓舞的.      

An Algorithm for the Determination of All Significant Pathways in Chemical Reaction Systems

When the output of a complex chemical model is analysed, a typical topic isthe determination of pathways, i.e., reaction sequences, that produce ordestroy a chemical species of interest.A representative example is the investigation of catalytic ozone destruction cycles in the stratosphere.An algorithm for the automatic determination of pathways in any given reactionsystem is presented. Under the assumption that reaction rates are known, it finds all significant pathways, i.e., all pathways with a rate above a prescribed threshold.The algorithm forms pathways step by step, starting from single reactions.The chemical species in the system are consecutively considered as `branching points'.For every branching-point species, each pathway producing it is connected witheach pathway consuming it.Rates proportional to `branching probabilities' are calculated.Pathways with a rate that is smaller than a prescribed threshold arediscarded.If a newly formed pathway contains sub-pathways, e.g., null cycles, it is split into these simpler pathways.In order to demonstrate the performance of the algorithm, it has been applied to the determination of catalytic ozone destruction cycles and methaneoxidation pathways in the stratosphere.     

GEOLOGICAL MARKS OF A POSSIBLE EXTRATERRESTRIAL IMPACT EVENT ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SINIAN/CAMBRIAN IN TIANMENSHAN IN WESTERN HUNAN

Geologic marks related to extraterrestrial impact events, such as impact split gravels, impact brecciate layers, impact dikes, microirghizites, microtektites, especially meteoritic residues, were discovered on the boundary between Sinian/Cambrian at Tianmenshan of Western Hunan, which may possibly demonstrate that an extraterrestrial impact event has ever occurred there on the S/C boundary.     

Matuyama-Brunhes reversal and Kamikatsura event on Maui: paleomagnetic directions, Ar/Ar ages and implications

Eighty-nine basaltic lava flows from the northwest wall of Haleakala caldera preserve a concatenated paleomagnetic record of portions of the Matuyama-Brunhes (M-B) reversal and the preceding Kamikatsura event as well as secular variation of the full-polarity reversed and normal geomagnetic field. They provide the most detailed volcanic record to date of the M-B transition. The 24 flows in the transition zone show for the first time transitional virtual geomagnetic poles (VGPs) that move from reverse to normal along the Americas, concluding with an oscillation in the Pacific Ocean to a cluster of VGPs east of New Zealand and back finally to stable polarity in the north polar region. All but one of the 16 Kamikatsura VGPs cluster in central South America. The full-polarity flows, with ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages spanning a total of 680 kyr, pass a reversal test and give an average VGP insignificantly different from the rotation axis, with standard deviation consistent with that for other 0-5 Ma lava flows of similar latitude. Precise ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating consisting of 31 incremental heating experiments on 12 transitional flows yields weighted mean ages of 775.6±1.9 and 900.3±4.7 ka for the M-B and Kamikatsura transitional flows, respectively. This Matuyama-Brunhes age is ∼16 kyr younger than ages for M-B flows from the Canary Islands, Tahiti and Chile that were dated using exactly the same techniques and standards, suggesting that this polarity transition may have taken considerably longer to complete and been more complex than is generally believed for reversals.     

Large aftershocks triggering by Coulomb failure stress following the 2001 M_S=8.1 great Kunlun earthquake

IntroductionItisshowedbyresearchesonearthquakestresstriggeringrecentlythatsmall'static'stresschangesduetopermanentfaultdisplacementcanalterthelikelihoodof,ortrigger,earthquakesonnearbyfaults(Harris,1998).Manystudiesoftriggeringinthenear-field,particularlyofaftershocks,showthesestaticchangesaretriggeringagent(Kilb,etal,2000).ReasenbergandSimpson(1992)studiedthere-sponseofregionalseismicitytothestaticstresschangeproducedbyLomaPrietaearthquake,andtheresultsshowedthataftershockratesincreasedinre…     

Development characteristics of interlayer oxidation zone type of sandstone uranium deposits in the southwestern Turfan-Hami basin

The known uranium ore and anomaly occur-rences are distributed mainly in the southwestern part of the Turfan-Hami basin. The focus of current explo-ration is placed on the leachable interlayered oxidation zone type of sandstone uranium deposits. Uranium deposits in the sedimentary basin can be classified into three types in accordance with their host rock types, i.e. the sandstone-type uranium deposits, the coal rock-type uranium deposits and the mud-stone-type uranium deposits. The sandstone…     

Stability of arsenopyrite and As(III) in low-temperature acidic solutions

Arsenopyrite is one of the most important pri-mary arsenic mineral. In the Eh-pH diagram of the As-O2-S-H2O system, if the total arsenic concentration (TAs) is taken to be 0.75 mg/L, the total sulfur con-centration, 32 mg/L, the temperature, 25℃and the pressure, one atmosphere pressure for the discrimina-tion of arsenic species, it may be found that under hy-pergene conditions, arsenopyrite is a moderately stable mineral. Only in the strongly alkaline and reducing environment can arsenopy…     

ENSO事件与鲁西北夏季降水的关系

应用近百年ENSO事件的研究成果和ENSO事件影响年的资料，统计分析近50年来ENSO事件与鲁西北夏季降水关系，为短期气候预测和汛期气象服务提供参考依据。     

2002年6月13日重庆区域大暴雨分析

通过对重庆西部“6 1 3”区域大暴雨的分析 ,发现此次天气过程是一次典型的高原涡与西南涡耦合 ,结合地面弱冷空气条件下产生的 ,同时对ECMWF和T2 1 3数值预报产品进行了简要的分析 ,发现ECMWF和T2 1 3的形势预报能力都比较好 ,但T2 1 3的部分物理量要素和降水量预报能力还有待提高。     

中国稻田甲烷产生和排放研究 Ⅰ.产生和排放机理及其影响因子

综合论述了近 2 0年来中国稻田甲烷排放的研究状况 ,包括中国稻田甲烷排放通量的观测 ,稻田甲烷生成的生物学机理及产生、转化、传输的机理研究 ,稻田甲烷排放的影响因子 ,主要介绍了稻田甲烷产生和氧化过程、影响甲烷排放的因子