Temporal variation of modulated-wave-train geometries and their influence on vertical bending moments of a container ship

A towing experiment was conducted using a modulated wave train to investigate the vertical bending responses of a hydro-structural container ship model. In the experiment, a spatially periodic modulated wave train, as a model of a freak wave in successive high waves mimicking the so-called three sisters, was generated by the recently established higher-order spectral method wave generation (HOSM-WG) method. HOSM-WG enables us to control the location and timing of the maximum crest height in a wave tank. With precise control of the towing carriage, an experiment was conducted in which the timing of the encounters between the ship model and the modulated wave train was accurately determined. The maximum sagging moment (SM) was found to increase in proportion with the encounter wave height. However, because of differences in the relative depth of the fore and aft troughs, the maximum SM is highly variable for a given wave height. The temporal wave-geometry evolution caused the relative trough-depth to vary significantly within a wave period in the vicinity of the maximum crest height. As a result, depending on the encounter timing, the SM varied considerably for a given wave height. The temporal variation of the wave geometry is a robust feature of a modulated wave train and is common between the spatially periodic and temporally periodic modulated wave trains.     

海马齿浮床对富营养化海湾营养盐削减的模型评价：以东山湾八尺门养殖海域为例

Many coastal seas are severely eutrophic and required to reduce nutrient concentrations to meet a certain water quality standard. We proposed a method for nutrient removal by planting Sesuvium portulacastrum at the water surface using the floating beds in the aquaculture area of the Dongshan Bay as an example, which is an important net-cage culture base in China and where dissolved inorganic nitrogen(DIN) and dissolved inorganic phosphate(DIP) reach 0.75 mg/L and 0.097 mg/L, respectively far exceeding China's Grade IV water quality standards.Numerical simulations were taken using the ecological model, field observations and field plantation experimental results to assess the environmental restoration effects of planting S. portulacastrum at some certain spatial scales. Our field experiments suggested that the herbs can absorb 377 g/m~2 nitrogen and 22.9 g/m~2 phosphorus in eight months with an inserting density of ～60 shoot/m~2. The numerical experiments show that the greater the plantation area is, the more nutrient removal. Plantation in ～12% of the study area could lower nutrients to the required Grade II standards, i.e., 0.2 mg/LDIN≤0.3 mg/L and 0.015 mg/LDIP≤0.03 mg/L.Here the phytoremediation method and results provide helpful references for environmental restoration in other eutrophic seas.     

函数模型与随机模型双约束的GPS-InSAR数据融合方法建立三维形变场

针对InSAR技术研究地表三维形变时监测信息不足的问题,以GPS监测信息为先验信息,建立附有随机模型约束的地表三维形变模型。考虑到SAR卫星极轨方式运行导致LOS向观测量对南北向形变不敏感的问题,以GPS南北向形变观测值作为强约束,构建三维形变解算的函数约束条件。模拟数据与西安地区实测数据的计算结果表明,基于随机模型与函数模型共同约束的地表三维形变参数最小二乘解的精度优于仅有函数模型约束或仅有随机模型约束及无任何约束的参数解精度。     

基于GPS和水准数据的微粒群算法联合反演祁连山北缘断裂三维滑动速率

将微粒群算法与位错理论模型相结合,采用中国地壳运动观测网络提供的青藏高原地区2001~2004年GPS测量数据和2000~2006年水准测量数据,通过常规定权和附有相对权比的方法对祁连山北缘断裂的三维滑动速率进行联合反演,并与蚁群算法反演结果进行对比。结果表明,微粒群算法收敛速度快、稳定性高,结合经典位错理论模型,是一种可以有效求解断层三维滑动速率反演问题的优化算法,在大地测量反演领域极具应用潜力。     

中国旅游城市生态安全系统评估与类型划分研究 ——基于节点权重约束网络DEA模型

采用 DPSIR概念模型作为旅游生态安全系统的基本形态,引入网络 DEA模型测度系统运行效率,从“投入-产出”的研究视角探究旅游生态安全系统内部作用机理。采用结构方程模型对网络 DEA模型的结构及权重加以限制,构建具有节点权重约束的网络 DEA评价模型,对主要旅游城市生态安全系统实例进行实证研究。研究结果认为：将生态安全系统分为自然运行阶段、管理反馈阶段2阶段进行效率评价,加权综合得出各旅游城市生态安全系统的综合评价值,以此为依据将样本城市划分为按系统效率的评价结果将其分划为绿色发展型、稳步发展型、高效发展型、双向提升型和管理能力缺失型,针对各类型旅游城生态安全系统特点提出改善其生态安全系统状况的建议。     

A high-precision heuristic model to detect home and work locations from smart card data

Smart card-automated fare collection systems now routinely record large volumes of data comprising the origins and destinations of travelers. Processing and analyzing these data open new opportunities in urban modeling and travel behavior research. This study seeks to develop an accurate framework for the study of urban mobility from smart card data by developing a heuristic primary location model to identify the home and work locations. The model uses journey counts as an indicator of usage regularity, visit-frequency to identify activity locations for regular commuters, and stay-time for the classification of work and home locations and activities. London is taken as a case study, and the model results were validated against survey data from the London Travel Demand Survey and volunteer survey. Results demonstrate that the proposed model is able to detect meaningful home and work places with high precision. This study offers a new and cost-effective approach to travel behavior and demand research.     

Late pleistocene (Devensian) glaciofluvial outwash at Banc-y-Warren,near Cardigan (west Wales)

On the southwest-facing slopes of a bedrock ridge lying between Cardigan Bay to the north and the Afon Teifi to the south stands a group of hills in which 30-35 m of cross-laminated and parallel-laminated sands with lenticular upward-fining gravel sequences are overlain by 10-12 m of gravel in a single foreset bed. The sediments mantle a surface of till sloping gently toward the southwest, were transported toward the southwest (across one margin of the Afon Teifi valley), and were cut by a system of densely arranged conjugate normal faults striking northwest-southeast. The lenticular gravels and fault system suggest that the deposits accumulated as a glaciofluvial outwash spread, and on top of an ice-lobe that became isolated in the Teifi valley during the downwasting of a glacier which had occupied Cardigan Bay and much of the country to the south. The large gravel foresets capping the succession are the only indication at Banc-y-Warren of the former existence of a lake, but neither a large nor deep body of water need be envisaged.     

梅雨降水季节预测的多方法比较

基于1961—2000年逐月降水观测资料和全球大气再分析资料,分析了6—7月长江中下游(108°～123°E,27°～33°N)梅雨的时空分布特征。通过观测诊断和数值试验确定了影响梅雨异常偏多的3个前期因子:4—5月平均的西北太平洋海平面气压正异常;3月至5月北大西洋海平面气压负变压倾向;1月至4月西伯利亚的2 m温度负倾向。利用这3个具有物理意义的影响因子构建了梅雨季节预测模型,该模型在训练期(1961—2000年)和独立预测期(2001—2022年)均具有显著的预测技巧(相关系数分别为0.79和0.77,均方根误差分别为0.59和0.68)。同时,基于相似的潜在预测因子,对比了利用偏最小二乘回归方法和5种机器学习方法(随机森林、轻量级梯度提升机、自适应提升、类别型特征提升、极端梯度提升)建立的预测模型的技巧。虽然训练期(1961—2000年)偏最小二乘回归和机器学习建模拟合效果更高,但在独立预测期(2001—2022年)上述模型的预测技巧显著降低(相关系数均低于0.44,均方根误差均大于0.93),出现了明显的过拟合问题。本研究强调梅雨的短期气候预测应建立在物理机制基础之上,而使用机器学习方法需谨慎。     

新疆大红柳滩伟晶岩型锂矿深部结构与区域成矿模型解释

为揭示花岗岩- 伟晶岩型锂等稀有金属矿成矿系统的深部结构,对西昆仑造山带大红柳滩伟晶岩型锂矿集区开展了大地电磁测深法(MT)探测。通过MT三维反演电阻率模型,探测到两个0~20 km深度范围的高阻体,反映了出露于地表的大红柳滩复式花岗岩基和半隐伏的大红柳滩东花岗岩基;20~80 km深度范围内发现的大范围高导异常,则反映了深达上地幔的地壳重熔形成的大规模长英质岩浆储库。可见,成矿母岩大红柳滩花岗岩基是有根的,而且是规模巨大深达上地幔的岩浆储库,它们为超大型大红柳滩伟晶岩型锂矿的形成提供了物源和热源。与松潘- 甘孜甲基卡超大型伟晶岩型锂矿集区对比,尽管川西甲基卡地区地表出露的花岗岩有限,但MT三维反演电阻率模型显示,其也存在深达上地幔的大范围高导异常,同样反映了大规模长英质岩浆储库的存在,只是剥蚀深度浅,上侵的花岗岩未被剥蚀出来而已。从而,深剥蚀的大红柳滩地区表现为大面积花岗岩出露的“热隆”特征,而浅剥蚀的甲基卡地区则表现为花岗岩围岩“片麻岩穹隆”热变质构造特征。西昆仑- 松潘- 甘孜伟晶岩型锂等稀有金属巨型成矿带两端的晚三叠世超大型矿床是大规模地壳重熔长英质岩浆作用中心的产物,由于锂等稀有金属的喜水性,H2O的饱和度是造就伟晶岩型锂超常富集的关键,并在长英质岩浆储库、上侵花岗岩和伟晶岩不同分异演化阶段,锂的“预富集”为大规模伟晶岩型锂矿成矿奠定了重要基础。     

基于部件可靠度和多阶段动态库存的备件管理决策

基于部件可靠度和多阶段动态库存理论,分析了备件需求与库存管理。提出了基于部件可靠度的动态需求模型;以部件的寿命服从指数分布为例,结合实际生产中备件的使用情况,通过确定备件储备的时间点,动态确定各周期备件的需求量。在确定备件动态需求量的基础上,采用多阶段动态库存理论确定了订货次数和每次订货数量,使库存量更符合实际和趋于合理。通过算例分析,给出了最小库存费用,表明基于部件可靠度和多阶段动态库存的备件管理具有一定的实际意义。