基于分区的局域神经网络时空建模方法研究

区域数据表现为两种尺度的空间特性:反映全局特征的空间依赖性和反映局域特征的空间波动性.空间波动性表现为空间数据在局部地区的聚集或高低交错现象.在研究区域数据时空预测性建模时,从降低数据的空间波动和不平稳性对模型预测能力的影响角度出发,提出了一种基于分区的局域神经网络时空非线性建模的思路.分区过程由基于空间邻接关系的K-means聚类算法完成.不同的分区方案通过相关性、波动性、紧凑性等指标进行评价和优选.在确定最优分区方案的基础上,对各子区分别采用两层前馈网络进行建模,模型的输入不仅要考虑本区内单元的作用,而且要考虑相邻子区的边界效应.各神经网络模型的时空预测能力通过平均相均差和动态相似率等指标进行衡量.最后,通过对法国94个县每周流感报告病例的时空建模分析表明,与全局神经网络模型相比,基于分区的局域神经网络模型具有更好的预测能力.     

Geochemistry and environmental effect of cadmium in the super-large Jinding Pb-Zn deposit,Yunnan Province,China

The Jinding Pb-Zn deposit in Yunnan Province is the representative of a Cd-enriched area and mining activities lead to the release of Cd into the hypergenic ecosystem, resulting in Cd pollution. The concentrations of Cd vary greatly from one type to another type of rocks in the mining district. In the host rock, Cd concentrations range from 50×10^-6 to 650×10^-6 with an average of 310×10^-6. In primary ores, Cd concentrations range from 14×10^-6 to 2800×10^-6 with an average of 767×10^-6. However, in oxidized ores, Cd concentrations are highest, varying within the range of 110×10^-6 to 8200×10^-6 , averaging 1661×10^-6. It is shown that the oxidized ores are the main carder and environmental source of Cd. Leaching test showed that Pb/Zn ores are easy to oxidize and thereafter release Cd and other harmful elements. These leached elements in the leachate may be precipitated rapidly in the order of Zn〉Pb〉Cd. As for the concentration distribution of Cd in the Bijiang River, it is estimated to be 15.7 μg/L Cd in water, 49.3 mg/L in suspended substances, and 203.7 mg/L in sediments. The average value of Cd in soil from the polluted area is 83.0 mg/kg. Natural weathering of Cd-rich rocks and minerals imposes a potential environmental risk on the aquatic ecosystem of the Bijiang catchment.     

三峡水库区兴山后坝滑坡成因分析

文章通过对三峡水库区兴山后坝滑坡的地质、结构及变形特征研究以及稳定性分析,阐明了该滑坡成因和影响因素。研究发现,滑坡活动主要受地形地貌、地层岩性、人类工程活动以及降雨等因素的影响。运用剩余推力法对比分析天然及暴雨条件下不同层位的滑坡稳定性系数,得出在暴雨作用下滑坡表层滑带稳定性系数最小,不同滑带的稳定性受降雨的影响也各不相同,呈表层〉浅层〉深层的规律;这主要受滑带土的粘土矿物组分的影响。     

地下矿产开采对天然气管道工程的安全影响评价

西气东输天然气管道工程途经兖州市,穿越杨庄、杨村、兴隆庄等煤矿矿区,压覆煤层埋深变化较大。该文采用预测法对各煤矿在不同开采条件下分煤层对管道运营安全的危害程度进行了评价分析。通过计算表明,煤矿开采埋深越浅,煤层越厚,对管道危害越严重。兴隆庄煤矿3煤层、杨村煤矿煤16t、煤17开采对管道影响强烈,杨庄煤矿煤16t、煤17开采对管道影响中等,兴隆庄煤矿煤16t、煤17开采对管道运营影响小。     

泥石流堆积物的粒度分布及其分形结构

泥石流堆积物主要由砾石、砂砾、粉粒和粘粒组成,组成泥石流堆积物的颗粒级配变幅很大,从直径大于数十米的巨砾到肉眼难以看见的几微米的胶体微粒均有分布,大小颗粒粒径之比可达106—107。泥石流堆积物颗粒具有明显的自相似性和无标度区间。本文以小江流域多处泥石流堆积物为研究对象,采用图解法全面分析了泥石流堆积物的粒度组成特征,根据分形理论计算了泥石流堆积物颗粒的分维值,对泥石流堆积物的分形特征进行探讨,并与泥石流堆积物粒度特征相联系,发现分维很好的反映了泥石流堆积物颗粒组成及其粒度分布特征。将泥石流堆积物颗粒分维与泥石流的粘性、形成年代等性质相联系,以找出它们彼此之间的关系。     

矿山固体废弃物对地质环境的影响分析

在山西省重点地区固体废弃物现状调查研究的基础上,通过试样试验,分析研究了固体废弃物对土壤、大气、水环境的污染,探讨了对固体废弃物的治理及利用,为研究矿山生态环境地质研究提供参考,同时积累工作经验。     

Mechanism for the rapid motion of the Qianjiangping landslide during reactivation by the first impoundment of the Three Gorges Dam reservoir, China

The first impoundment of the Three Gorges Dam reservoir in China started from a water surface elevation of 95 m on June 1, 2003 and reached 135 m on June 15, 2003. Shortly after the water level reached 135 m, many slopes began to deform and some landslides occurred. The Qianjiangping landslide is the largest one; it occurred on the early morning of July 14, 2003 and caused great loss of lives and property. Field investigation revealed that, although failure occurred after the reservoir reached 135 m, the stability of the slope was already reduced by preexisting sheared bedding planes. To study the mechanism of the rapid motion of this reactivated landslide, two soil samples were taken from a yellow clay layer and a black silt layer in the sliding zone, respectively, and a series of ring shear tests were conducted on the samples. One series of ring shear tests simulates the creep deformation behavior, while the other series simulates different shear rates. Conclusions drawn from analysis of the ring shear tests indicate that the mechanism of the rapid motion of the reactivated landslide was caused by the rate effect of the black silt layer during the motion phase after the creep failure. The yellow clay layer did not play any important role in the rapid motion in the 2003 event.     

Composition-Induced Variations in SIMS Instrumental Mass Fractionation during Boron Isotope Ratio Measurements of Silicate Glasses

An analytical artefact is reported here related to differences in instrumental mass fractionation between NIST SRM glasses and natural geological glasses during SIMS boron isotope determinations. The data presented demonstrated an average 3.4‰ difference between the NIST glasses and natural basaltic to rhyolitic glasses mainly in terms of their sputtering-induced fractionation of boron isotopes. As no matrix effect was found among basaltic to rhyolitic glasses, instrumental mass fractionation of most natural glass samples can be corrected by using appropriate glass reference materials. In order to confirm the existence of the compositionally induced variations in boron SIMS instrumental mass bias, the observed offset in SIMS instrumental mass bias has been independently reproduced in two laboratories and the phenomenon has been found to be stable over a period of more than one year. This study highlights the need for a close match between the chemical composition of the reference material and the samples being investigated.     

煤炭采空区处理的新方法与实例分析

位于乌鲁木齐市南湖路以西的煤炭采空区面积达67 100.5m^2,区内构造从南到北主要由八道湾向斜和七道湾背斜组成,地层产状变化不大。该矿区开采较深,且采空区塌陷区有明显的地下水活动迹象。在对深孔大体积采空区注浆时,比较各种常见注浆治理方法,均存在不同的制约因素,故决定采用灌浆爆破压密法对采空区进行压实加固。经现场爆破试验,该区重复爆破次数在3～5次左右。灌浆爆破压密处理后,对不同土层进行取样对比分析,得到其相应密度（增加）及空隙比（减少）的变化分别为：杂填土14.1%,-7.9%;素填土5.9%,-3.3%;塌落煤层7.8%,-7.7%。根据压缩数据及现场测量,处理后的土体沉降2～4m,部分空体地段的沉降量达10～20m,治理效果明显。     

Sedimentary characteristics of terrigenous debris at site MD05-2905 in the northeastern part of the South China Sea since 36 ka and evolution of the East Asian monsoon

Sediments with high sedimentation rate at site MD05-2905 in the Northeastern slope of the South China Sea provide unique materials for a high-resolution study on the paleoenvironment. Based on precise dating of AMS ¹⁴C, grain size analysis of terrigenous debris at core MD05-2905 was conducted after organic matter, biological carbonate and biogenic opal were removed. The results show that 15.5–63.5 μm coarse grain size ingredients may indicate East Asian winter monsoon changes and that 2–9 μm fine grain size ingredients may be used as a proxy of evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon. The results of grain size analysis, which suggest East Asian monsoon intensity, reveal that a winter monsoon dominated the glacial regime and a summer monsoon dominated the Holocene regime. It was also shown that the summer monsoon increased gradually, experienced several abrupt changes and reached a culmination in the early Holocene (11200–8500 a B.P.) since 36 ka. Controlled by precession periodicity, it may be related with the amount of solar radiation at the highest stage, which needs further study. __________ Translated from Advances in Earth Science, 2007, 22(10): 1012–1018 [译自: 地球科学进展]