全球金融中心的百年竞争:决定金融中心成败的因素及中国金融中心的崛起

本文从全球角度和历史经验论述金融中心发展,尤其是国际金融中心发展的条件、路径和制约因素,并综合"金融地理"、"金融法学"及"时区理论"的观点论述国际金融中心发展及增长。本文并对香港及内地金融中心(上海、北京、深圳)在后金融危机的时代及中国的伟大崛起中的发展机遇,及在全球金融网络的位置及角色和前景作出展望,并对上海建设国际金融中心作出建议。     

中国地理学的发展与全球变化研究

10年来中国地理学研究领域发生了巨大变化,主要表现在大规模地参与了全球变化研究。本文阐述了全球变化的主要研究议题及地理学者可能起到的作用,认为中国长期高速经济增长引起的环境变化比大气层增温的影响大得多,一系列与此有关的重大区域性问题应该得到地理学者的广泛重视。文中还指出了地理学者在全球变化研究中的值得注意的倾向。     

基于全球降水数据估计值的地表径流模拟--以长江上游地区为例

为了评价在相对较短时间内针对长江上游地区地表水径流所建立模型的模拟效果,以及检验以GCM模型和其他卫星数据所估算的降水数据作为输入数据的可行性,选择分布式水文模型HSPF以及1987年和1988年的ISLSCP降水数据作为输入数据。模型模拟结果表明:从整个长江上游地区看,在校正期内,5天平均流量的Nash–Sutcliffe相关系数(R2) 为0.94;在验证期内,Nash-Sutcliffe相关系数(R2) 为0.95。此外,该模型对长江上游主要支流的5天平均流量的模拟效果也很好,R2的值在0.46到0.96之间。例外的情况主要发生在沱江和嘉陵江,模型对2年洪水期的峰值流速的估计值偏低,沱江只有实际值的71%,嘉陵江只有实际值的61%。ISLSCP估计的降水比实际测量的降水频繁且程度要弱,这可能是HSPF不能在所有时间和所有区域都具有较好模拟效果的一个主要原因。     

Trend analysis using nonhomogeneous stochastic diffusion processes. Emission of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>; Kyoto protocol in Spain

In this study, we propose a methodology to analyse the gradual secular trends present in the time evolution of certain endogenous variables, which are of particular interest in environmental research. This methodology is based on modelling such variables by nonhomogeneous stochastic diffusion processes, the trend functions of which may be made to depend on other, exogenous, variables, which are controllable and which affect and model, in turn, the possible irregularities of such trends. The methodology is applied to analyse the evolution of the emission of CO₂ in Spain, and it is shown that the evolution of the Spanish GDP affects the trend component. These circumstances are considered in the context of Spain’s non-compliance with the Kyoto protocol on controlling the emission of greenhouse gases.     

An integrated model to simulate sown area changes for major crops at a global scale

Dynamics of land use systems have attracted much attention from scientists around the world due to their ecological and socio-economic implications. An integrated model to dynamically simulate future changes in sown areas of four major crops (rice, maize, wheat and soybean) on a global scale is pre- sented. To do so, a crop choice model was developed on the basis of Multinomial Logit (Logit) model to model land users' decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives with using a crop utility function. A GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted to simulate the crop yields under a given geophysical environment and farming management conditions, while the International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model was utilized to estimate crop price in the international market. The crop choice model was linked with the GIS-based EPIC model and the IFPSIM model through data exchange. This integrated model was then validated against the FAO statistical data in 2001-2003 and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) global land cover product in 2001. Both validation approaches indicated reliability of the model for ad- dressing the dynamics in agricultural land use and its capability for long-term scenario analysis. Finally, the model application was designed to run over a time period of 30 a, taking the year 2000 as baseline. The model outcomes can help understand and explain the causes, locations and consequences of land use changes, and provide support for land use planning and policy making.     

浑善达克沙地地区的气候变化特征

利用浑善达克沙地地区8个典型气象站近50a的气候资料,以及锡林郭勒盟南部1903-1975年旱涝等级指数数据,主要运用Excel分析了该区时空气候变化特征。近50a来,整个浑善达克沙地地区气温升高的趋势和全球变暖表现一致,而且气温升高更加显著。无论从100a尺度还是50a尺度上看,整个区域在不同的年代都存在有较大的干湿差异;然而降水量的变化趋势表现不同,在50a尺度上,整个区域降水量呈波动中微弱减少的态势,且存在区域差异。从气温、降水量、蒸发量以及平均相对湿度的变化情况看,都有趋势表明浑善达克沙地以朱日和为代表的西北部地区,较中部和东南部有明显暖干化趋势,将可能是未来生态环境更加脆弱的地区。整个区域自1970年以来,年平均风速在减小,但近40a来浑善达克沙地西部地区沙尘暴一直在发展;东部地区的沙尘暴在1980年以前呈增加的趋势,1980年以后则明显减少,但新近频繁发生的沙尘暴表明,东部地区沙尘暴的发展也应当引起关注。     

荒漠灌木梭梭同化枝相对生长速率对温度升高响应的不确定性

近地表大气和陆表温度的升高已经成为一个不争的事实,同时这种趋势还将持续下去。全球变暖不仅改变了热量条件,还改变了水分条件。水热条件可以综合地反映为潜在蒸散量,进而影响植被生产力,而同化组织是植物对环境变化最为敏感的部位。本研究跟踪梭梭同化枝在2010年6-9月的生长动态,测定同化枝的光响应曲线以计算同化枝潜在同化速率,并利用气象数据及Hargreaves公式计算潜在蒸散量。通过分析梭梭同化枝相对生长速率与潜在同化速率,潜在蒸散量与潜在同化速率之间的数量关系,建立了仅仅需要日最低、最高和平均温度,以及太阳总辐射数据,就可以估算梭梭同化枝相对生长速率的简单方法,经统计检验基本可行（P=0.016）。应用该种方法和1960-2000年6-9月本地月平均气象数据,讨论了在全球变暖背景不同的升温模式下,梭梭同化枝相对生长速率变幅的方向和大小的不确定性,由此表明了荒漠生态系统对全球变化响应的复杂性。     

Changes in Global Vegetation Distribution and Carbon Fluxes in Response to Global Warming: Simulated Results from IAP-DGVM in CAS-ESM2

Terrestrial ecosystems are an important part of Earth systems, and they are undergoing remarkable changes in response to global warming. This study investigates the response of the terrestrial vegetation distribution and carbon fluxes to global warming by using the new dynamic global vegetation model in the second version of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Earth System Model (CAS-ESM2). We conducted two sets of simulations, a present-day simulation and a future simulation, which were forced by the present-day climate during 1981–2000 and the future climate during 2081–2100, respectively, as derived from RCP8.5 outputs in CMIP5. CO₂ concentration is kept constant in all simulations to isolate CO₂-fertilization effects. The results show an overall increase in vegetation coverage in response to global warming, which is the net result of the greening in the mid-high latitudes and the browning in the tropics. The results also show an enhancement in carbon fluxes in response to global warming, including gross primary productivity, net primary productivity, and autotrophic respiration. We found that the changes in vegetation coverage were significantly correlated with changes in surface air temperature, reflecting the dominant role of temperature, while the changes in carbon fluxes were caused by the combined effects of leaf area index, temperature, and precipitation. This study applies the CAS-ESM2 to investigate the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate warming. Even though the interpretation of the results is limited by isolating CO₂-fertilization effects, this application is still beneficial for adding to our understanding of vegetation processes and to further improve upon model parameterizations.     

Simulation of cyclones using synthetic data

A number of sensitivity experiments have been conducted to investigate the influence of using synthetic data on cyclone forecasts by a global spectral model. Some well known vortices have been used and the generated wind and pressure profiles are compared. It is found that the Rankine vortex and Holland’s vortex show the best representation of cyclonic circulation. Hence these two vortices are used in the sensitivity studies to simulate two cyclones, one of May 1979 and the other of August 1979. For this purpose the FGGE level-III b data set, produced at ECM WF, UK is used. Synthetic temperature and humidity data are also introduced to make the cyclones more realistic. With the use of Holland’s vortex the system is found to move faster than with the Rankine vortex. Also, the tracks of the cyclones simulated with Rankine vortex are found to be on the left side of the observed track while that of Holland’s vortex is on the right side of the observed track. However, substantial filling up of the systems are noticed with introduction of diabatic initialization of the mass and velocity fields and the forecasts of both the vortices behave differently. It is suggested that proper selection of synthetic vortex, initialization scheme and resolution of the model are very important for better forecast of cyclones.     

全球变暖加剧新疆森林火情

新疆稀缺的森林资源承担着重要的生态服务功能, 林火作为森林生态系统中重要的干扰因子, 与当前全球变暖关系密切, 明确全球变暖对新疆森林火灾的影响及二者关系对于保护新疆森林资源及生态具有重要意义。本研究选取新疆维吾尔自治区1988~2020年森林火灾数据及气候数据, 对二者采用M-K检验、距平分析法、异常度分析法和相关性分析后发现, 1988~2020年期间新疆森林覆盖区域气候显著变暖, 生长季及夏季气温影响当年森林火灾, 而4月降水与6月气温变化对第二年火灾产生重要影响, 气候变化改变燃料湿度、堆积量等燃料条件可能为导致这一现象发生的主要原因。这一研究为全球变暖下新疆林火预警提供重要参考。