Palaeoclimatic cycles, global environmental changes and new glacial periods induced by the impact of extraterrestrial bodies

In terms of Earth-Sun geometry, the Milankovitch theory has successfully explained most of the cyclic palaeoclimatic variations during the history of the Earth, especially in the Quaternary. In this paper, the authors suggest that the impact of extraterrestrial bodies on the Earth may be another mechanism to cause palaeoclimatic cycles, global environmental changes and new glacial periods. Based on geological and geochemical records in the boundary layers produced by six huge Cenozoic bolide-impact events (65, 34, 15, 2.4, 1.1, 0.73 Ma B.P.), including those at 34, 15, 1.1 and 0.73 Ma B. P. which are represented by four famous tektite-strewn fields, the process and mechanics of palaeoclimatic cycles and global environmental catastrophes induced by extraterrestrial impact are discussed in detail. Impact-generated dust, soot and aerosol floating in the stratosphere could result in short-term (<1 year), rapid drop in temperature immediately after impact. Through self-regulation of the Earth’s climate system, the temperature at the surface slowly went up within 100a and maintained stable for a long time at 250K. If there were no other factors leading to the break-down of the newly-established equilibrium, a new glacial pound would be initiated. Estimating from the thickness of δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O anomalies in sediments across the impact boundary layer and deposition rate, the duration of two stages of the palaeoclimate cycle in the form of cold weather—greenhouse effect—normal weather was 10⁴ – 10⁵a, respectively. The conclusion deduced from the above model is supported by palaeotemperature change recorded by oxygen isotope in sediments across the impact boundary layer. The study was granted by the Scientific and Technological Bureau of Resources and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZ952-J1-031) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China.     

The Tropospheric Gas-Phase Degradation of NH3 and Its Impact on the Formation of N2O and NOx

The gas-phase degradation of NH3 in the atmosphere still has many uncertainties. One of them is the possible isomerisation of NH2O to NHOH, as indicated by kinetic studies. Since NH2O is formed during the gas-phase oxidation of ammonia in the troposphere, this reaction can potentially influence the subsequent production of N2O and NOx. So far, the isomerisation has never been implemented into current chemical schemes describing the atmospheric gas-phase degradation of NH3 and its atmospheric relevance has never been assessed. The N2O yield from NH3 degradation is calculated to be in the range of 10–43 %. It depends on the NO2 and O3 concentrations, but is independent of the NH3 concentration. Compared with the results from recent literature, the N2O yield derived from the new mechanism is 20–80% lower, implying a smaller global N2O source strength of 0.4 Tg yr- 1. The production of NH2SO2 seems to be less important for the atmospheric degradation of NH3. NH3 oxidation is a sink for NOx at NOx mixing ratios of more than about 1 ppb and a source at lower NOx burdens.     

Modeling the Sudden Decrease in CH_4 Growth Rate in 1992

1.IntroductionMethane(CH#)isanimportantgreenhousegasinatmosphere.ThemainremovalprocessofCH4inatmosphereisreactedwithOHwhichisdeterminedbytheabundanceofmethane,carbonmonoxide(CO)andnitrousoxides(NO.)whoseemissionshaveincreasedgreatlybecauseofhumanacti...     

初值信息在气候预测中的作用

应用胞映射全局分析方法,研究初值信息在气候预测中的作用。针对人们认识气候的实际过程,分别提出4种初始条件,研究一个最大简化的大气模式做逐日级别预报和量值预报以及月平均级别预报和量值预报的能力。结果表明,初值信息掌握得越多,预报误差就越小,预报的相对准确率就越高。     

全球环境变化与人体健康

以全球增暖为标志的全球环境变化已经出现。这一变化对人体健康和人类社会的生存和未来发展将产生极为重大的影响。人类自身活动是引起全球环境变化的一个最为活跃的因子。但是,对人类活动,包括个人和社会集体行为,对全球环境变化的影响和机制,全球环境变化又是怎样反作用于人类社会,以及人类如何适应未来全球环境变化等问题研究甚少。由于人体健康直接关系到每个人,“环境变化与人体健康问题”应该作为全球环境变化研究中的研究核心之一,应加强社会科学界、环境科学界和医学界之间的合作研究。同时,应积极开展国际合作,加大研究成果的宣传力度,增强全民环保意识。       

Local Uniqueness in the Global Village: Heritage Tourism in Singapore

It is commonly assumed that the development of tourist attractions, the formulation of tourism policies, and the marketing of destination areas are dictated by the needs and interests of foreign visitors. What is ignored is the role that local factors and agencies play in these processes. This paper explores the way local and non-local factors are responsible for shaping the form and function of tourism development. Drawing upon the case of Singapore, I examine the country's heritage tourism phenomenon as the outcome of “local” and “global” forces. This argument is elaborated along three lines of enquiry. They include: (a) a study of the government's tourism policies; (b) an examination of marketing and promotional strategies; and (c) a look at a particular urban landscape—the Little India Historic District. To conceptualize the global-local nexus, the paper embraces two bodies of theory. They are the “locality concept” advanced by industrial geographers in the 1980s, and writings on “globalism/localism” by cultural/economic geographers in the 1990s. Both theoretical discussions reinforce the argument that place uniqueness need not be sacrificed as a result of globalization. They also provide a way of viewing tourism geographies as the product of global and local forces.     

Changes of Snow Cover Thickness Measured by Conventional Mass Balance Methods and by Global Positioning System Surveying

The most labour-intensive and time-consuming part of many mass balance programmes is the acquisition of snow depth data. The standard technique, which involves probing the snow cover at intervals along a series of profiles, generally by an individual on skis, may involve more than 300 discrete measurements along a total of more than 20 km of profiling at a single glacier. Kinematic surveying with a global positioning system (GPS) in differential mode provides much more information about changes of glacier surface level and snow thickness between surveys. The positions of a large number of points can be fixed in a relatively short time by GPS surveying, and the technique is usable in adverse weather conditions. With real-time kinematic GPS surveying, it is possible to return to the same positions (longitude, latitude) during successive field programmes, and a previously followed route can be retraced precisely. GPS surveying facilitates the production of accurate glacier maps for mass balance programmes. Data obtained by snow depth probing and GPS surveying in 1995 at Austre Okstindbreen, the largest glacier of the Okstindan area, Norway (66°N), indicate that repeated GPS surveys are likely to provide a large amount of information on withinyear and between-year changes of surface topography and are not subject to the errors in mass balance calculations which arise from probing snow depths along selected profiles. Kinematic GPS surveying of several glaciers within an area would overcome the difficulties arising when mass balance studies are confined to a single glacier within a particular area.     

气候变化对沅江流域径流影响研究

温室气体排放量增加造成气候变化,对全球资源环境产生重要影响.本文在水量平衡基础上,建立考虑气象要素和地形变化的月水文模型,利用实测径流资料对模型在时空尺度上进行验证.利用全球气候模型(GCMs)预测的未来气候变化情形,对处于湿润区的沅江流域径流过程进行预测.分析结果表明,该区域径流过程对降雨和气温变化十分敏感.根据英国Hadcm2模型对本世纪中叶气候变化预测结果,沅江流域未来年降雨量减少0.43%气温升高1.55℃,丰水期降雨增加,而枯水期将有较大幅度减少.年径流量相应减少6.8%,丰水期径流量增大11%,枯水期径流减少47%,不利于防洪和水资源开发利用.     

SCE-UA方法在新安江模型参数优化中的应用

以前在使用新安江模型时人们遇到的最大困难可归因于缺乏有效的参数全局优化的数学方法,事实上对于一个缺乏经验的人来说,模型参数的人工试错计算的过程是一个相当不容易的过程,并且耗时颇多,为此,近些年来研究者们正在探索把概念性水文模型中的专家经验与自动优化计算相结合的方法或者数学优化中的全局优化方法,如SEC-UA方法,本文首先简述新安江模型,而后采用3个大小和气候条件各不相同的流域对SCE-UA算法就在新安江模型计算的参数优化进行了研究,研究结果表明,SCE-UA算法用来进行新安江模型的参数优化所取得的效果是好的,从率定和检验的结果来看,SCE-UA算法可以使得率定的新安江模型的参数达到全局最优并且从概念上也合理。     

紧致的Hilbert曲线Gray码索引算法

Hilbert曲线具有良好的聚簇性,使其成为设计全球立体网格多维数据索引的重要工具。但当数据集在不同维度上的分布密度存在较大差异时,常规Hilbert曲线索引会出现大量的冗余。对此,本文基于Gray码推导分析了Hilbert曲线索引的构造特点,进而设计实现了紧致Hilbert曲线索引算法,在保持Hilbert曲线良好聚簇性的同时,避免了数据维度分布差异带来的索引冗余问题。试验结果表明,相比常规Hilbert索引,紧致Hilbert曲线索引计算复杂度相当,在实例数据测试中编码耗时减少约40%,索引存储空间减少约46%,排序速度约为Hilbert排序的4.3倍。