红河断裂带的GPS观测数据反演

本文利用1999和2003年的GPS观测数据,通过在欧亚框架下的数据反演,并根据断裂带的活动性质和活动性的强弱,将测区范围内的红河断裂带分为三段（见图3示）：北段断裂带、南段断裂带和中间转换区.     

球面退化四叉树格网的剖分及变形分析

为有效解决经纬度格网与四元三角网(QTM)在全球空间数据管理与操作中存在的不足,提出一种新的全球离散格网剖分方法——球面退化四叉树格网(DQG),给出该格网的剖分原理与编码规则,并对其进行几何变形计算与分析。结果表明:DQG既具有经纬度格网结构简单的特征,又具有QTM几何变形稳定等优点。     

改进的最小生成树自适应空间点聚类算法

针对传统的最小生成树聚类算法存在使用全局不变阈值确定噪声边,聚类需要用户根据经验确定初始化聚类参数,如“边权值倍数容差”,“边长变化因子”等,聚类不能发现局部噪声的问题,本文提出了一种改进的最小生成树自适应空间点聚类算法。该算法在无需用户输入参数的前提下,克服主观因素的影响,根据最小生成树边长的数理统计特征定义裁剪因子。算法首先从宏观层面对最小生成树进行首轮删枝操作,消除全局环境下的噪声边,进而根据各子树的边长统计情况,自适应设定局部裁剪因子,进行第二轮删枝操作,消除局部环境下的噪声边。最后,采用1个模拟数据和1个实际应用验证算法的有效性,结果表明本文提出的改进算法在无需人为提供经验参数的环境下能够发现任意形状、不同密度的簇,能够准确的识别出空间点中的噪声数据,从而能够实现空间点数据背后隐藏信息的自动挖掘。     

From China’s Heavy Precipitation in 2020 to a “Glocal” Hydrometeorological Solution for Flood Risk Prediction

The prolonged mei-yu/baiu system with anomalous precipitation in the year 2020 has swollen many rivers and lakes,caused flash flooding,urban flooding and landslides,and consistently wreaked havoc across large swathes of China,particularly in the Yangtze River basin.Significant precipitation and flooding anomalies have already been seen in magnitude and extension so far this year,which have been exerting much higher pressure on emergency responses in flood control and mitigation than in other years,even though a rainy season with multiple ongoing serious flood events in different provinces is not that uncommon in China.Instead of delving into the causes of the uniqueness of this year’s extreme precipitation-flooding situation,which certainly warrants in-depth exploration,in this article we provide a short view toward a more general hydrometeorological solution to this annual nationwide problem.A“glocal”(global to local)hydrometeorological solution for floods(GHS-F)is considered to be critical for better preparedness,mitigation,and management of different types of significant precipitation-caused flooding,which happen extensively almost every year in many countries such as China,India and the United States.Such a GHS-F model is necessary from both scientific and operational perspectives,with the strength in providing spatially consistent flood definitions and spatially distributed flood risk classification considering the heterogeneity in vulnerability and resilience across the entire domain.Priorities in the development of such a GHS-F are suggested,emphasizing the user’s requirements and needs according to practical experiences with various flood response agencies.     

土体约束对海底管道整体屈曲的影响机理研究

高温高压下海底管道的整体屈曲稳定性分析是管道设计的重要组成部分,而选取多长的管道进行分析对其整体屈曲稳定性结果影响显著。依据临界管长将管道分为"长管"与"短管",基于动力显式分析方法,揭示了长管与短管在发生整体屈曲过程中,屈曲幅值与波长、管壁轴向压力、轴向应变及轴向位移的变化规律;研究了土体约束力影响管道临界长度的规律性,分析了土体约束力系数对长管与短管整体屈曲变形的影响。研究发现,土体约束力对短管的整体屈曲行为影响显著,短管的整体屈曲幅值随土体约束力系数的增大呈现先增大后减小的趋势。该项研究对区分不同长度管道的整体屈曲类型进而采取有效防控措施具有重要参考价值。     

一个基于MOM的全球海洋数值同化预报系统

随着国家战略利益的拓展,国家对全球海洋环境预报保障的需求日益凸显。近年来,国家海洋环境预报中心研发并建立我国首个涵盖全球大洋的"全球海洋数值预报系统",该预报系统由MOM4全球海洋环流模式及三维变分同化系统组成。该系统的建立,实现了全球范围海洋环流预报业务全覆盖,为我国探索深海大洋环境的迫切需求提供有力保障,明显提升了我国海洋环境预报能力,体现了我国海洋数值预报技术的发展和进步。该系统的历史回报试验和业务化试运行结果表明其对全球海洋环境要素具有较好的预报能力,其预测结果已经在实际业务中得到了应用,在"雪龙号"极地遇险脱困、马航MH370失联飞机搜救等重大事件的预报保障任务中发挥了重要作用,为我国实施海洋强国战略,推进实施"21世纪海上丝绸之路"的战略构想,应对海上突发事件、维护国家海洋权益等各个方面提供有力的科技支撑和保障,并成为我国全球海洋预报业务的重要参考依据。     

Effects of ocean acidification and high temperatures on the bryozoan Myriapora truncata at natural CO2 vents

There are serious concerns that ocean acidification will combine with the effects of global warming to cause major shifts in marine ecosystems, but there is a lack of field data on the combined ecological effects of these changes due to the difficulty of creating large‐scale, long‐term exposures to elevated CO₂ and temperature. Here we report the first coastal transplant experiment designed to investigate the effects of naturally acidified seawater on the rates of net calcification and dissolution of the branched calcitic bryozoan Myriapora truncata (Pallas, 1766). Colonies were transplanted to normal (pH 8.1), high (mean pH 7.66, minimum value 7.33) and extremely high CO₂ conditions (mean pH 7.43, minimum value 6.83) at gas vents off Ischia Island (Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy). The net calcification rates of live colonies and the dissolution rates of dead colonies were estimated by weighing after 45 days (May–June 2008) and after 128 days (July–October) to examine the hypothesis that high CO₂ levels affect bryozoan growth and survival differently during moderate and warm water conditions. In the first observation period, seawater temperatures ranged from 19 to 24 °C; dead M. truncata colonies dissolved at high CO₂ levels (pH 7.66), whereas live specimens maintained the same net calcification rate as those growing at normal pH. In extremely high CO₂ conditions (mean pH 7.43), the live bryozoans calcified significantly less than those at normal pH. Therefore, established colonies of M. truncata seem well able to withstand the levels of ocean acidification predicted in the next 200 years, possibly because the soft tissues protect the skeleton from an external decrease in pH. However, during the second period of observation a prolonged period of high seawater temperatures (25–28 °C) halted calcification both in controls and at high CO₂, and all transplants died when high temperatures were combined with extremely high CO₂ levels. Clearly, attempts to predict the future response of organisms to ocean acidification need to consider the effects of concurrent changes such as the Mediterranean trend for increased summer temperatures in surface waters. Although M. truncata was resilient to short‐term exposure to high levels of ocean acidification at normal temperatures, our field transplants showed that its ability to calcify at higher temperatures was compromised, adding it to the growing list of species now potentially threatened by global warming.     

The relationship between the canonical ENSO and the phase transition of the Antarctic oscillation at the quasi-quadrennial timescale

A correlation analysis is performed to investigate the relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Antarctic oscillation (AAO) at the quasi-quadrennial (QQ) timescale.It is found that the cold tongue index (CTI) and the AAO index (AAOI) are negatively correlated with about a 7-month lead-time,while they are positively correlated with about a 15-month lag-time.To further explore this relationship,complex empirical orthogonal function analysis is employed in the QQ sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies from 1951 to 2002.The results indicate that,during the ENSO cycle,there exists one kind of global tropical wave of wavenumber 1 (GTW1) propagating eastward.With the traveling of GTW1,the tropical SLP anomaly tends to intrude into the southern mid-latitudes.Accordingly,three strong signals travel synchronously along the circumSouth-Pacific path,and a relatively weak signal extends eastward and poleward over the South Ocean in the Atlantic-Indian Ocean sector.Following the propagation of these signals,the AAO phase tends to be reversed progressively.As a result,there exists an evident lead-lag correlation between CTI and AAOI.It can be concluded that ENSO plays a key role in the phase transition of AAO at the QQ timescale.It is also noticed that this regular relationship is only evident in the canonical ENSO events,for which sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies extend westward from the tropical eastern Pacific.On the other hand,the similar relationships are not found among those atypical ENSO events for which SST anomalies spread eastward from the central Pacific,such as the 1982-1983 ENSO event.     

经济地理学视角下的旅游发展理论演进

经济地理学是一门非常活跃和发展演化很快的学科.近30年来,经济地理学的发展演化带动了旅游发展理论的演变.回顾旅游发展理论研究的进展,依次有依附理论、生命周期理论、社区研究方法、福特主义、弹性专业化和全球商品链理论,这些理论在旅游方面的应用和研究,从时间和数量上都明显滞后于生产实践活动,说明旅游研究还处于经济地理学科"边缘化"的地位.在今天经济全球化的背景下,旅游产业在迅猛发展之时,旅游发展理论的建设更应与经济地理学紧密结合,由"边缘"走向"核心".     

后疫情时代全球石油供需格局研究

2017年以来,全球石油消费持续疲软,消费增速呈逐渐下降的趋势,新冠肺炎疫情对石油需求的打击更是"雪上加霜".本文回顾了疫情发生以来国际原油价格及大型油气公司股票价格的走势,探讨了疫情对全球石油需求和供应市场的影响,研判了短期及中长期全球石油供需格局,得出了三点结论:(1)疫情对全球石油需求产生重大冲击,预计2020年...