Global ENSO-streamflow teleconnection,streamflow forecasting and interannual variability

Abstract

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been linked to climate anomalies throughout the world. This paper presents an overview of global ENSO-streamflow teleconnection and identifies regions where the relationship may be exploited to forecast streamflow several months ahead. The teleconnection is investigated by fitting a first harmonic to 24-month El Niño streamflow composites from 581 catchments worldwide and the potential for forecasting is investigated by calculating the lag correlation between streamflow and two indicators of ENSO. The analyses indicate clear ENSO-streamflow teleconnections in many catchments, some of which are consistent across large geographical regions. Strong and regionally consistent ENSO-streamflow teleconnections are identified in Australia and New Zealand, South and Central America, and weaker signals are identified in some parts of Africa and North America. The results suggest that the ENSO-streamflow relationship and the serial correlation in streamflow can be used to successfully forecast streamflow. The streamflow forecasts can be used to help manage water resources, particularly in systems with high interannual variability in Australia, southern and drier parts of Africa and some areas of North America.     

用解析有限元法嵌入地下水管理模型求最优解

为了弥补当前地下水资源优化管理模型中通用的两种构模方法的缺点,即嵌入法的代数方程组过于庞大、上机困难,和响应矩阵法不保证全局最优,提出了用解析有限元法建立整体非稳定(即带有时间变量)抽水响应矩阵作为约束条件嵌入线性规划模型.这一方法由于具备了空间上表达任一节点在任一时刻的地下水运动规律的能力,克服了上述构模的两大缺点,其推广应用将有利于提高地下水资源的优化开发和管理.     

DIAGNOSTIC STUDY FOR INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION OF THE MIDDLE-HIGH LATITUDES IN A LOW RESOLUTION GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL

In this paper, five-year simulated data from a low-resolution global spectral model with triangular trunca-lion at wavenumber 10 are analyzed in order to study dynamical features and propagation characteristics ofintraseasonal oxillations over the mid-latitudes and the tropical atmosphere. The simulations show that thereis the 30-50 day periodic oscillation in the low-resolution spectral model without non-seasonal external forcing,and spatial scale of the intraseasonal oscihations is of the globe .Further analysis finds that propagation charac-ters of intraseasonal oscillations over the mid-latitudes and the tropics are different. The 30-50 day oscillationover the tropics exhibits structure of the velocity potential wave with wavenumber 1 in the latitudinal and thecharacter of the traveling wave eastward at speed of 8 longitudes/day. However, the 30-50 day oscillationsin mid-latitude atmosphere exhibit phase and amplitude oscillation of the standing planetary waves and theyare related to transform of teleconnection patterns over the mid-latitudes. The energy is not only transferredbetween the tropics and the middle-high latitudes, but also between different regions over the tropics. Based on the analysis of 5-year band pass filtered data from a 5-layer global spectral model of Jow-ordetwith truncated wavenumber l0,investigation is done of the source of intraseasonal oscillations in the extratropicalmodel atmosphere and its mechanism. Results show that (1) the convective heat transferred eastward alongthe equator serves as the source of the intraseasonal oxillation both in the tropical and the extratropical atmos--phere; (2) the velocity-potential wave of a zonal structure of wavenumber 1 gives rise to oxillation in divergentand convergent wind fields of a dipole-form as seen from the equatorial Indian Ocean to the western Pacificduring its eastward propagation, thus indicating the oscillation in the dipole-form heat soure:e/sink pattertl; (3)the tropical heat-source oscillation is responsible for the variation in phase and intensity of the extratropicalstationary wave train, and the interaction between the oscillating low-frequency inertial gravity and stationaryRossby modes that are probably mechanisms for the oscillations ip the middle-high latitudes.     

1993年7—9月的全球地震动态

１９９３年第三季度，全球地震活动水平为中等偏高，明显高于上半年平均水平。日本北海道西南近海发生７．６级浅源地震，但不属于日本海沟地震。埃及西奈半岛发生５．７级地震，为今年亚欧带西段之最大地震。马里亚纳群岛发生８．１级中深震，使西北太平洋地区地震水平达到全球第一。兴都库什地区接连发生三次较大中深震，可能对我国西部地区地震活动有影响。墨西哥恰帕斯州近海发生７．３级地震，美洲带新的地震活动轮回正式开始。印度南部发生６．３级中强震，属于板内地震。     

The global distribution of methane in the troposphere

Methane has been measured in air samples collected at approximately weekly intervals at 23 globally distributed sites in the NOAA/GMCC cooperative flask sampling network. Sites range in latitude from 90° S to 76° N, and at most of these we report 2 years of data beginning in early 1983. All measurements have been made by gas chromatography with a flame ionization detector at the NOAA/GMCC laboratory in Boulder, Colorado. All air samples have been referenced to a single secondary standard of methane-in-air, ensuring a high degree of internal consistency in the data. The precision of measurements is estimated from replicate determinations on each sample as 0.2%. The latitudinal distribution of methane and the seasonal variation of this distribution in the marine boundary layer has been defined in great detail, including a remarkable uniformity in background levels of methane in the Southern Hemisphere. We report for the first time the observation of a complete seasonal cycle of methane at the South Pole. A significant vertical gradient is observed between a sea level and a high altitude site in Hawaii. Globally averaged background concentrations in the marine boundary layer have been calculated for the 2 year-period May 1983–April 1985 inclusive, from which we find an average increase of 12.8 ppb per year, or 0.78% per year when referenced to the globally averaged concentration (1625 ppb) at the mid-point of this period. We present evidence that there has been a slowing down in the methane growth rate.Presented at the Conference on the Scientific Application of Baseline Observations of Atmospheric Composition (SABOAC), Aspendale, Australia, 7–9 November 1984.     

Termites and global methane—another assessment

New CH₄ emission data from a number of Northern and Southern Hemispheric, tropical and temperate termites, are reported, which indicate that the annual global CH₄ source due to termites is probably less than 15 Tg. The major uncertainties in this estimate are identified and found to be substantial. Nevertheless, our results suggest that termites probably account for less than 5% of global CH₄ emissions.     

关于大陆构造的思考

大陆动力学与全球动力学是当代地学的重在前沿领域。本文在研究青藏高原与周缘盆地的同步演化规律和综合前人最新研究成果的基础上，分析了大陆构造的１０个基本问题，并进一步阐述了层流构造模式，其内容包括：（１）深部层流导致浅部隆陷；（２）层流隆陷构造系统的物质循环过程；（３）大陆层块结构与地温场，应力场的关系；（４）层流构造的阶段发展与复合叠加；（５）层流构造的深部过程及动力学源，特别强调指出应当区大分陆隆     

全球旋回地层学

全球旋回地层学是指在对全球沉积岩进行综合系统研究之基础上，通过估算沉积盆地中源于物源区的沉积物类型和沉积环境条件变化，来预测地层学特征的一种过程一结果模型。其研究内容包括对全球地质演化时期全球海平面变化、全球气候条件、全球构造运动、全球古地理背景、全球沉积环境特征、全球古生物事件及全球矿产形成过程进行动态模拟，强调古气候在地质记录中的意义，注重沉积记录的全球同时性研究；强调各种事件在沉积作用中的意     

1994年全球地震活动综述

１９９４年全球地震活动属于高水平，有４次大深震和４次浅源大地震。全球全年共发生６级以上地震１３４次，超过１９９３年。全球地震活动中心仍在太平洋西北边缘地震带。１０月４日的千岛群岛地震是最大的浅源地震；６月９日的玻利维亚地震是最大的深源地震。１９９４年全球地震活动开始转折，揭开强烈活动期的序幕。各大地震带的Ａ（ｂ）值几乎按同一比例上升，显示全球地震整体性增强。全球地震Ａ（ｂ）值在６月和１０月有两次高