全球变暖对长江洪水的可能影响及其前景预测

要长江流域近150a间发生的1870、1931、1935、1954与1998年特大洪水灾害损失严重;长江洪水是我国的心腹之患.1990年以来,长江大洪水高频发生,达6次.长江洪水的发生,除湖泊蓄洪功能减弱等因素外,与全球变暖有关.20世纪90年代为近千年中全球最暖的年代,水循环加快,长江中下游夏季降水量为近120a最多的十年,高出1961-1990平均值112mm;而降雨集中和大暴雨降水事件的增加是洪水增加的主要原因.区域气候模式模拟在CO₂倍增时,长江流域温度升高2.2℃,夏季降水增加10%-20%,气溶胶的增加可能使此值降低一些.考虑气候变暖可能促进潜在蒸发增加9%-15%的假定情景,计算在降水增加10%,蒸发增加9%条件下,最大洪峰流量在大通站将会达到8.4×10⁴ m³/s左右,己超过1998年洪峰流量;汉口站7.9×10⁴ m³/s,超过有记录以来所有的洪峰流量;而在宜昌站高达6.94×10⁴ m³/s,超过自有实测记录以来的除1896年和1981年以外所有的洪峰流量.假定情景的最高值出现在降水增加20%,蒸发增加15%时,大通站流量将达到9.45×10⁴ m³/s,超过该站近百年最大值,1954年的9.26×10⁴ m³/s;宜昌站将出现7.82×10⁴ m³/s流量,超过1882年以来所有实测记录值,但比1870年据洪痕推算的10.5×10⁴ m³/s仍有逊色.未来气候若继续变暖,降水量增加将给长江洪水防御带来巨大的压力.但上述估算是粗糙的,有一定的不确定性,需在以后的研究中进一步改进.     

Dominant climate factors influencing the Arctic runoff and association between the Arctic runoff and sea ice

By using the Arctic runoff data from R-ArcticNET V4.0 and ArcticRIMS, trends of four major rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean, whose climate factor plays an important role in determining the variability of the Arctic runoff, are investigated. The results show that for the past 30 years, the trend of the Arctic runoff is seasonally dependent. There is a significant trend in spring and winter and a significant decreasing trend in summer, leading to the reduced seasonal cycle. In spring, surface air temperature is the dominant factor influencing the four rivers. In summer, precipitation is the most important factor for Lena and Mackenzie, while snow cover is the most important factor for Yenisei and Ob. For Mackenzie, atmospheric circulation does play an important role for all the seasons, which is not the case for the Eurasian rivers. The authors further discuss the relationships between the Arctic runoff and sea ice. Significant negative correlation is found at the mouth of the rivers into the Arctic Ocean in spring, while significant positive correlation is observed just at the north of the mouths of the rivers into the Arctic in summer. In addition, each river has different relationship with sea ice in the eastern Greenland Sea.     

阿克苏河流域的面雨量序列及其与径流关系

以数字高程模型 (DEM) 的1km×1km网格数据为基础,对阿克苏河流域14个气象站和水文站的1961~2000年的年降水资料进行了自然正交分解 (EOF),通过回归分析,建立主要特征向量与地理因子的插值模型,给出了一个面雨量序列的计算方法,为建立气候要素的区域平均序列提供了一个有效的解决方案,并由此推算出年阿克苏流域平均年降水量的空间分布以及面雨量序列。径流量与面雨量之比 (R/P) 平均为0.43,最高为0.69 (1997年),最低为0.30 (1963年)。计算出的阿克苏河流域面雨量序列与阿克苏河实测径流量序列的趋势变化率分别为5.79×10⁸ m³/10a和4.29×10⁸ m³/10a,两者均表现出增加趋势,但面雨量的增加速率要比径流量大一些,年际变化幅度也要大,面雨量和径流量的变差系数Cv值分别为0.17和0.13。阿克苏河年径流量的变化与夏季0^oC层高度、年面雨量有着十分密切的关系,表明20世纪90年代以来新疆气候的变化是阿克苏河流域径流稳定增加的一个非常重要的因素。     

CLIMATIC TREND INDICATED BY VARIATIONS OF GLACIERS AND LAKES IN THE TIANSHAN MOUNTAINS

ＣＬＩＭＡＴＩＣＴＲＥＮＤＩＮＤＩＣＡＴＥＤＢＹＶＡＲＩＡＴＩＯＮＳＯＦＧＬＡＣＩＥＲＳＡＮＤＬＡＫＥＳＩＮＴＨＥＴＩＡＮＳＨＡＮＭＯＵＮＴＡＩＮＳ￥ＨｕＲｕｊｉ；ＹａｎｇＣｈｕａｎｄｅ；ＭａＨｏｎｇ；ＪｉａｎｇＦｅｎｇｑｉｎｇ（ＸｉｎｊｉａｎｇＩｎ...     

长江干流日径流序列的多重分形特征

基于长江干流寸滩、宜昌和大通三个主要控制水文站多年的日径流资料,运用多重分形消除趋势波动分析 (MF-DFA)等方法,识别长江流域不同空间尺度上径流序列的多重分形特征,并采用推广的乘积阶次模型,对多重分形谱进行拟合。结果表明: (1)长江干流的日径流序列具有自相似的多重分形特征,该多重分形特征是由序列内在的长程相关性引起的;(2)长江干流日径流序列的多重分形谱可用推广的乘积阶次模型进行描述,模型拟合的参数a、b可作为该水文站点的特征参数,能够对降雨径流模型有效地进行检测;(3)长江干流日径流变化的复杂程度具有空间差异性。下游大通水文站径流序列的奇异性大于上游两站点,其径流变化过程更为复杂,而上游两站奇异性相差不大。造成三个站点径流过程变化复杂程度差异的主要原因,包括集水面积、来水组成、降水特点和下垫面状况等。     

Using climate to relate water discharge and area in modern and ancient catchments

Models relating sediment supply to catchment properties are important in order to use the geological record to deduce landscape evolution and interplay between tectonics and climate. Water discharge (Q _w) is an important factor in the widely used ‘BQART ’ model, which relates sediment load to a set of measurable catchment parameters. Although many of the factors in this equation may be independently estimated with some degree of certainty in ancient systems, water discharge (Q _w) certainly cannot. An analysis of a world database of modern catchments with 1255 entries shows that the commonly applied equation relating catchment area (A ) to water discharge (Q _w = 0·075A^0·8) does not predict water discharge from catchment area well in many cases (R ² = 0·5 and an error spanning about three orders of magnitude). This is because the method does not incorporate the effect of arid and wet climate on river water discharge. The inclusion of climate data into such estimations is an opportunity to refine these estimates, because generalized estimates of palaeoclimate can often be deduced on the basis of sedimentological data such as palaeosol types, mineralogy and palaeohydraulics. This paper investigates how the relationship between catchment area and river discharge varies with four runoff categories (arid, semi‐arid, humid and wet), which are recognizable in the geological record, and modifies the coefficient and exponent of the above‐mentioned equation according to these classes. This modified model yields improved results in relating discharge to catchment area (R ² = 0·95 and error spanning one order of magnitude) when core, outcrop or regional palaeoclimate reconstruction data are available in non‐arid systems. Arid systems have an inherently variable water discharge, and catchment area is less important as a control due to downstream losses. The model here is sufficient for many geological applications and makes it possible to include variations in catchment humidity in mass‐flux estimates in ancient settings.     

高分一号卫星遥感影像提取冰川堰塞湖水体方法比较

快速准确地从遥感影像提取冰川堰塞湖水体信息,是研究冰坝遥感监测与应急监测的核心热点问题.以GF-1卫星遥感影像为主要数据源,采用归一化差分水体指数(NDWI)、改进阴影水体指数(ENDWI)和面向对象(SVM)对克亚吉尔冰川堰塞湖水体进行定量提取.比较分析3种水体判识方法,3种方法均可以提取完整的水体边界,并且抑制了9...     

祁连山冰川变化及其脆弱性

Glaciers are a reliable freshwater resource in arid regions of West China and the vulnerability of its changes is closely related to regional ecosystem services and economic sustainable development. Here, we took the Qilian Mountains as an example and analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of glacier changes from 1998 to 2018, based on remote sensing images and the Second Chinese Glacier Inventory. We estimated the basic organizational framework and evaluation index system of glacier change vulnerability from exposure, sensitivity and adaptability, which covered the factors of physical geography, population status and socio-economic level. We analyzed the spatial and temporal evolutions of glacier change vulnerability by using the vulnerability evaluation model. Our results suggested that:(1) Glacier area and volume decreased by 71.12±98.98 km² and 5.59±4.41 km³, respectively, over the recent two decades, which mainly occurred at the altitude below 4800 m, with an area shrinking rate of 2.5%. In addition, glaciers in the northern aspect(northwest, north and northeast) had the largest area reduction. Different counties exhibited remarkable discrepancies in glacier area reduction, Tianjuan and Minle presented the maximum and minimum decrease, respectively.(2) Glacier change vulnerability level showed a decreasing trend in space from the central to the northwestern and southeastern regions with remarkable differences. Vulnerability level had increased significantly over time and was mainly concentrated in moderate, high and extreme levels with typical characteristics of phases and regional complexity. Our study can not only help to understand and master the impacts of recent glacier changes on natural and social aspects but also be conducive to evaluate the influences of glacier retreat on socio-economic developments in the future, thus providing references for formulating relevant countermeasures to achieve regional sustainable development.     

塔里木河流域地表水资源及径流组成

塔里木河流域内水系的分布几乎包括整个塔里盆地，水资源在全流域不仅是农业的命脉，也是制约国民经济发展的重要因素，同时也是制约和影响生态环境最敏感的因子。本文根据塔里木河流域干，支流水文测站长期的实际观测资料，加以深入研究分析，对该流域各源流及干流的地表水资源量，径流组成以及年内分配情况，提出了较为翔实，可靠的数据，谨供流域水资源规划设计，管理调度等参考。