Switch in chemical weathering caused by the mass balance variability in a Himalayan glacierized basin: a case of Chhota Shigri Glacier

Long-term data (2003–2015) on meltwater chemistry, mass balance and discharge of a benchmark glacier (Chhota Shigri Glacier, India) were studied to determine any association between these variables. To infer the factors governing the alteration of chemical weathering processes in glacierized basins, multi-annual records of the hydrochemical indices (Ca²⁺+Mg²⁺/Na⁺+K⁺) and the C-ratio were also examined. A succession of negative mass balance years has resulted in a decline in solute concentrations in the runoff, as discharge has increased. The (Ca²⁺+Mg²⁺/Na⁺+K⁺) and C-ratio are highest during periods of negative annual mass balance, when the spatial extent of the channelized drainage system increases. Conversely, these ratios are lowest in positive mass balance years, when the spatial extent of the channelized drainage system decreases, and chemical weathering in the distributed drainage system becomes more dominant. This paper is the first to show the inter-annual linkages between meltwater chemistry, mass balance and discharge for a valley glacier.     

A Bayesian method for missing rainfall estimation using a conceptual rainfall–runoff model

The estimation of missing rainfall data is an important problem for data analysis and modelling studies in hydrology. This paper develops a Bayesian method to address missing rainfall estimation from runoff measurements based on a pre-calibrated conceptual rainfall–runoff model. The Bayesian method assigns posterior probability of rainfall estimates proportional to the likelihood function of measured runoff flows and prior rainfall information, which is presented by uniform distributions in the absence of rainfall data. The likelihood function of measured runoff can be determined via the test of different residual error models in the calibration phase. The application of this method to a French urban catchment indicates that the proposed Bayesian method is able to assess missing rainfall and its uncertainty based only on runoff measurements, which provides an alternative to the reverse model for missing rainfall estimates.     

Relative change in stream discharge from a tropical watershed improves predictions of fecal bacteria in near-shore environments

Statistical models poorly predict bacteria in near-shore environments of tropical islands due to inaccuracies in runoff and discharge characterization of storm events. Intense, short duration storms on small, steeply sloped watersheds produce high rates of runoff, resulting in rapid pulses of discharge that influence the physical and physiological conditions of the fate and transport of pathogens. As such, increasing rates of discharge are expected to have a different influence on sediment transport and pathogen load compared to decreasing rates of discharge. Regression modeling was used to examine the affect of antecedent streamflow on the interaction between environmental parameters and two fecal indicator bacteria, enterococci and Clostridium perfringens. Including the relative change in discharge incorporates a proximate representation of the energy available to transport particulates, improving predictions of near-shore water quality. Understanding factors that influence pathogen loads improves management of watersheds and protects public health.     

Hydroclimatology of the Upper Madeira River basin: spatio-temporal variability and trends

Rising in the Andes, the Madeira River drains the southwestern part of the Amazon basin, which is characterized by high geographical, biological and climatic diversity. This study uses daily records to assess the spatio-temporal runoff variability in the Madeira sub-basins. Results show that inter-annual variability of both discharge and rainfall differs between Andean and lowland tributaries. High-flow discharge variability in the Andean tributaries and the Guaporé River is mostly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific in austral summer, while tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SST modulates rainfall and discharge variability in the lowlands. There also is a downward trend in the low-flow discharge of the lowland tributaries which is not observed in the Andes. Because low-flow discharge values at most lowland stations are negatively related to the SST in the tropical North Atlantic, these trends could be explained by the warming of this ocean since the 1970s.

EDITOR A. Castellarin

ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Viglione     

Effects of climate change and human activities on runoff and sediment inputs of the largest freshwater lake in China,Poyang Lake

The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Pettitt test were employed to examine the change trends and shifts of runoff and sediment input to Poyang Lake between 1961 and 2013. Water balance and linear regression models were used to evaluate the impacts of climate variability and human activities on the runoff and sediment discharge changes. The results showed that runoff inputs to the lake had insignificant temporal trends and change points, while sediment inputs had significant decreasing trends, with an abrupt change in 1989. Quantitative assessment demonstrated that human activities led to a small decrease (5.5%) in runoff inputs to the lake, and a dramatic (121.4%) decrease in sediment inputs to the lake between the reference period (before the change point) and the human-influenced period (after the change point). This work provides a useful reference for future policy makers in water resource utilization and environmental safety of the Poyang Lake basin.     

The importance of aspect for modelling the hydrological response in a glacier catchment in Central Asia

Understanding how explicit consideration of topographic information influences hydrological model performance and upscaling in glacier dominated catchments remains underexplored. In this study, the Urumqi glacier no. 1 catchment in northwest China, with 52% of the area covered by glaciers, was selected as study site. A conceptual glacier‐hydrological model was developed and tested to systematically, simultaneously, and robustly reproduce the hydrograph, separate the discharge into contributions from glacier and nonglacier parts of the catchment, and establish estimates of the annual glacier mass balance, the annual equilibrium line altitude, and the daily catchment snow water equivalent. This was done by extending and adapting a recently proposed landscape‐based semidistributed conceptual hydrological model (FLEX‐Topo) to represent glacier and snowmelt processes. The adapted model, FLEX^G, allows to explicitly account for the influence of topography, that is, elevation and aspect, on the distribution of temperature and precipitation and thus on melt dynamics. It is shown that the model can not only reproduce long‐term runoff observations but also variations in glacier and snow cover. Furthermore, FLEX^G was successfully transferred and up‐scaled to a larger catchment exclusively by adjusting the areal proportions of elevation and aspect without the need for further calibration. This underlines the value of topographic information to meaningfully represent the dominant hydrological processes in the region and is further exacerbated by comparing the model to a model formulation that does not account for differences in aspect (FLEX^G,nA) and which, in spite of satisfactorily reproducing the observed hydrograph, does not capture the influence of spatial variability of snow and ice, which as a consequence reduces model transferability. This highlights the importance of accounting for topography and landscape heterogeneity in conceptual hydrological models in mountainous and snow‐, and glacier‐dominated regions.     

Climate change effects on hydrological system conditions influencing generation of storm runoff in small Alpine catchments

Floods and debris flows in small Alpine torrent catchments (<10 km²) arise from a combination of critical antecedent system state conditions and mostly convective precipitation events with high precipitation intensities. Thus, climate change may influence the magnitude–frequency relationship of extreme events twofold: by a modification of the occurrence probabilities of critical hydrological system conditions and by a change of event precipitation characteristics. Three small Alpine catchments in different altitudes in Western Austria (Ruggbach, Brixenbach and Längentalbach catchment) were investigated by both field experiments and process‐based simulation. Rainfall–runoff model (HQsim) runs driven by localized climate scenarios (CNRM‐RM4.5/ARPEGE, MPI‐REMO/ECHAM5 and ICTP‐RegCM3/ECHAM5) were used in order to estimate future frequencies of stormflow triggering system state conditions. According to the differing altitudes of the study catchments, two effects of climate change on the hydrological systems can be observed. On one hand, the seasonal system state conditions of medium altitude catchments are most strongly affected by air temperature‐controlled processes such as the development of the winter snow cover as well as evapotranspiration. On the other hand, the unglaciated high‐altitude catchment is less sensitive to climate change‐induced shifts regarding days with critical antecedent soil moisture and desiccated litter layer due to its elevation‐related small proportion of sensitive areas. For the period 2071–2100, the number of days with critical antecedent soil moisture content will be significantly reduced to about 60% or even less in summer in all catchments. In contrast, the number of days with dried‐out litter layers causing hydrophobic effects will increase by up to 8%–11% of the days in the two lower altitude catchments. The intensity analyses of heavy precipitation events indicate a clear increase in rain intensities of up to 10%.     

Development of push moraines in deeply frozen sediment adjacent to a cold-based glacier in the McMurdo Dry Valleys,Antarctica

Previous studies of push moraines have concluded that structural architecture is controlled by a combination of stress exerted by flowing ice and the rheology of the deforming sediment. However, the relationship between deformation processes and the thermal/hydrologic conditions within the sediment remains ambiguous. Using a combination of surface mapping, logging exposures and ground penetrating radar we examine the relationships between surface morphology, material properties and development of deformation structures in deeply frozen sediment that has been deformed by Joyce Glacier, a cold-based glacier in the McMurdo Dry Valleys. The structural architecture of the push moraines is characterized by a combination of brittle and ductile deformation structures that have produced a structurally complex pattern of thrust faults, low angle listric thrusts and recumbent folds that extend 400 m beyond the glacier margin. Deformation is ductile where the ice concentration exceeds c. 65% volume and predominantly brittle where the ice concentration is less than c. 65%. The change in rheology reflects transition in behaviour from the material having a predominantly frictional character when the ice is limited to pore spaces to a non-frictional character in which strength is primarily determined by the cohesive strength of the ice. This work shows that glaciotectonic deformation can occur in deeply frozen permafrost where there is no liquid pore water. We conclude that the presence of liquid porewater is not a necessary condition for the development of glaciotectonic deformation or for the formation of push moraines. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

‘Detachment’ of icefield outlet glaciers: catastrophic thinning and retreat of the Columbia Glacier (Canada)

We present an investigation of changes taking place on the Columbia Glacier, a lake-terminating outlet of the Columbia Icefield in the Canadian Rockies. The Columbia Icefield is the largest, and one of the most important, ice bodies in the Canadian Rockies. Like other ice masses, it stores water as snow and ice during the winter and releases it during warmer summer months, sustaining river flows and the ecosystems that rely on them. However, the Columbia Glacier and Icefield is shrinking. We use Landsat and Sentinel-2 imagery to show that the Columbia Glacier has retreated increasingly rapidly in recent years, and suggest that this looks set to continue. Importantly, we identify a previously undocumented process that appears to be playing an important role in the retreat of this glacier. This process involves the ‘detachment’ of the glacier tongue from its accumulation area in the Columbia Icefield. This process is important because the tongue is cut off from the accumulation area and there is no replenishment of ice that melts in the glacier's ablation area by flow from upglacier. As a consequence, for a given rate of ablation, the ice in the tongue will disappear much faster than it would if the local mass loss by melting/calving was partly offset by mass input by glacier flow. Such a change would alter the relationship between rates of surface melting and rates of glacier frontal retreat. We provide evidence that detachment has already occurred elsewhere on the Columbia Icefield and that it is likely to affect other outlet glaciers in the future. Modelling studies forecast this detachment activity, which ultimately results in a smaller ‘perched’ icefield without active outlets. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interaction of wind and cold-season hydrologic processes on erosion from complex topography following wildfire in sagebrush steppe

Wildfire is a natural component of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) steppe rangelands that induces temporal shifts in plant community physiognomy, ground surface conditions, and erosion rates. Fire alteration of the vegetation structure and ground cover in these ecosystems commonly amplifies soil losses by wind- and water-driven erosion. Much of the fire-related erosion research for sagebrush steppe has focused on either erosion by wind over gentle terrain or water-driven erosion under high-intensity rainfall on complex topography. However, many sagebrush rangelands are geographically positioned in snow-dominated uplands with complex terrain in which runoff and sediment delivery occur primarily in winter months associated with cold-season hydrology. Current understanding is limited regarding fire effects on the interaction of wind- and cold-season hydrologic-driven erosion processes for these ecosystems. In this study, we evaluated fire impacts on vegetation, ground cover, soils, and erosion across spatial scales at a snow-dominated mountainous sagebrush site over a 2-year period post-fire. Vegetation, ground cover, and soil conditions were assessed at various plot scales (8 m² to 3.42 ha) through standard field measures. Erosion was quantified through a network of silt fences (n = 24) spanning hillslope and side channel or swale areas, ranging from 0.003 to 3.42 ha in size. Sediment delivery at the watershed scale (129 ha) was assessed by suspended sediment samples of streamflow through a drop-box v-notch weir. Wildfire consumed nearly all above-ground live vegetation at the site and resulted in more than 60% bare ground (bare soil, ash, and rock) in the immediate post-fire period. Widespread wind-driven sediment loading of swales was observed over the first month post-fire and extensive snow drifts were formed in these swales each winter season during the study. In the first year, sediment yields from north- and south-facing aspects averaged 0.99–8.62 t ha⁻¹ at the short-hillslope scale (~0.004 ha), 0.02–1.65 t ha⁻¹ at the long-hillslope scale (0.02–0.46 ha), and 0.24–0.71 t ha⁻¹ at the swale scale (0.65–3.42 ha), and watershed scale sediment yield was 2.47 t ha⁻¹. By the second year post fire, foliar cover exceeded 120% across the site, but bare ground remained more than 60%. Sediment yield in the second year was greatly reduced across short- to long-hillslope scales (0.02–0.04 t ha⁻¹), but was similar to first-year measures for swale plots (0.24–0.61 t ha⁻¹) and at the watershed scale (3.05 t ha⁻¹). Nearly all the sediment collected across all spatial scales was delivered during runoff events associated with cold-season hydrologic processes, including rain-on-snow, rain-on-frozen soils, and snowmelt runoff. Approximately 85–99% of annual sediment collected across all silt fence plots each year was from swales. The high levels of sediment delivered across hillslope to watershed scales in this study are attributed to observed preferential loading of fine sediments into swale channels by aeolian processes in the immediate post-fire period and subsequent flushing of these sediments by runoff from cold-season hydrologic processes. Our results suggest that the interaction of aeolian and cold-season hydrologic-driven erosion processes is an important component for consideration in post-fire erosion assessment and prediction and can have profound implications for soil loss from these ecosystems. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.