中国冰川径流的评估及其未来50 a变化趋势预测

基于中国冰川编目资料,应用冰川系统对气候变化响应的功能模型,按照几种不同升温率的气候背景,对全国各大流域冰川径流进行了评估,并对未来50 a冰川径流的变化趋势进行了预测.结果表明:1980年全国冰川总径流量615.7×108m3,在升温0.02 K.a-1及0.03 K.a-1情景下,2000年比1980年增大7.13%~10.8%,径流总量增至659.66×108m3~682.24×108m3;与此同时,冰川面积减少1.07%~1.62%,冰储量也减少1.14%~1.73%.2000—2030年全国冰川径流都将逐步增长,在2030年左右均达到了最高峰,径流增率ΔW/W0分别为9.6%及15.0%,总径流量分别为675.15×108m3,和707.91×108m3.2030年以后,全国冰川径流均开始从高峰缓慢回落,但直到2050年分别比初始径流量多8.6%及13.6%.因此,在2050年以前,特别是2030年前后是在上述气候情景下充分利用冰川融水的最好时机,但也是冰川洪水等灾害的多发期.就各流域来说,敏感型区径流高峰出现时间早而径流增率小,稳定型区则反之.如果出现极端的持续升温,如升温率为0.05 K.a-1,全国冰川径流增率可达26.5%,到21世纪末回落到1980年水平以下,而冰川储量损失达57%,届时中国西部生态环境将急剧恶化.     

裂隙岩质边坡地下水渗流数值模拟

本文从反倾向岩质高边坡的渗流特征和渗流普遍规律出发,根据渗流力学知识,建立数学模型,通过渗流数值模拟计算分析了渗透压力、水头变化规律以及对岩质边坡稳定性的影响.     

基于GIS的滑坡、泥石流灾害危险性区划关键问题研究

随着GIS技术的引入,滑坡、泥石流灾害危险性区划的效率和准确性得以大大提高。依据工程地质类比原则,在灾害学理论指导下,结合专家打分、层次分析、人工神经网络、信息量、Logistic回归、统计量等模型方法,以MAPGIS软件为平台,利用C++语言开发了滑坡、泥石流灾害危险性区划评价分析系统;并重点探讨了GIS支持下的滑坡、泥石流灾害危险性区划过程中的因子分析、模型选取、模型复合、单元划分、系统集成、结果评价等关键问题,建立了一整套基于GIS的滑坡、泥石流灾害评价方法体系。应用该系统对长江三峡库区和辽宁省鞍山市分别开展了滑坡、泥石流灾害危险性区划研究,取得了较好的效果。     

A conceptual model for kimberlite emplacement by solitary interfacial mega-waves on the core mantle boundary

If convection in the Earth's liquid outer core is disrupted, degrades to turbulence and begins to behave in a chaotic manner, it will destabilize the Earth's magnetic field and provide the seeds for kimberlite melts via turbulent jets of silicate rich core material which invade the lower mantle. These (proto-) melts may then be captured by extreme amplitude solitary nonlinear waves generated through interaction of the outer core surface with the base of the mantle. A pressure differential behind the wave front then provides a mechanism for the captured melt to ascend to the upper mantle and crust so quickly that emplacement may indirectly promote a type of impact fracture cone within the relatively brittle crust. These waves are very rare but of finite probability. The assumption of turbulence transmission between layers is justified using a simple three-layer liquid model. The core derived melts eventually become frozen in place as localised topographic highs in the Mohorovicic discontinuity (Moho), or as deep rooted intrusive events. The intrusion's final composition is a function of melt contamination by two separate sources: the core contaminated mantle base and subducted Archean crust. The mega-wave hypothesis offers a plausible vehicle for early stage emplacement of kimberlite pipes and explains the age association of diamondiferous kimberlites with magnetic reversals and tectonic plate rearrangements.     

Mantle heat flow and thermal structure of the northern block of Southern Granulite Terrain, India

Continental shield regions are normally characterized by low-to-moderate mantle heat flow. Archaean Dharwar craton of the Indian continental shield also follows the similar global pattern. However, some recent studies have inferred significantly higher mantle heat flow for the Proterozoic northern block of Southern Granulite Terrain (SGT) in the immediate vicinity of the Dharwar craton by assuming that the radiogenic elements depleted exposed granulites constitute the 45-km-thick crust. In this study, we use four-layered model of the crustal structure revealed by integrated geophysical studies along a geo-transect in this region to estimate the mantle heat flow. The results indicate that: (i) the mantle heat flow of the northern block of SGT is 17 ± 2 mW/m², supporting the global pattern, and (ii) the lateral variability of 10–12 mW/m² in the surface heat flow within the block is of crustal origin. In terms of temperature, the Moho beneath the eastern Salem–Namakkal region appears to be at 80–100 °C higher temperature than that beneath the western Avinashi region.     

Velocity distribution in a gradually accelerating free surface flow

This study investigates the interaction of the vertical velocity v and the streamwise velocity u in a gradually accelerating flow. The analytical result shows that the momentum of uv driven by the mean velocities in a non-uniform flow is not negligible. This additional momentum directly results in the concave profiles of Reynolds shear stress in gradually accelerating flows, a departure from the expected linear profile. Consequently, this momentum causes the maximum velocity to be located below the free surface, i.e., the dip-phenomenon. This paper investigated the interactions of the Reynolds shear stress, non-zero vertical velocity and dip-phenomenon, it is found that the non-zero vertical velocity causes the dip-phenomenon. The approach is tested using the experimental data of Song and others, and good agreements between the predicted and measured velocity profiles have been achieved.     

Mantle process beneath Philippine Sea back-arc spreading ridges: A synthesis of peridotite petrology and tectonics

Abstract In order to obtain a general view of the mantle process beneath a back‐arc basin spreading ridge, the diversity of peridotite petrology and tectonic occurrences in two back‐arc basin spreading ridges from the Philippine Sea were examined: the Parece Vela Rift and the Mariana Trough. The Parece Vela Basin spreading ridge (Parece Vela Rift) was a physically fast/intermediate‐spreading ridge, although many tectono‐magmatic features resemble those of slow‐ to ultraslow‐spreading ridges. Two unusual features of the Parece Vela Rift further demonstrate the uniqueness of the ridge: full‐axial development of oceanic core complexes and exposure of mantle peridotite at segment midpoints. The Parece Vela Rift yields a lithological assemblage of residual but still fertile lherzolite/harzburgite, plagioclase‐bearing harzburgite and dunite; similar assemblages are reported from the equatorial Mid‐Atlantic Ridge at the Romanche Fracture Zone and the ultraslow‐spreading ridges from the Indian and Arctic Oceans. The tectono‐magmatic characteristics of the Parece Vela Rift suggest that diffuse porous melt flow and pervasive melt–mantle interaction were the important mantle processes there. Globally, this ‘porous melt flow‐type’ mantle process is likely to occur beneath a segment midpoint of the ridge having a thick lithosphere, typically an ultraslow‐spreading ridge. In contrast, the Mariana Trough is a typical slow‐spreading ridge, exposing mantle peridotite at segment ends. The Mariana Trough yields a lithological assemblage of residual harzburgite and veined harzburgite, a common assemblage among the global abyssal peridotite suite. The tectono‐magmatic characteristics of the Mariana Trough suggest that channeled melt/fluid flow and limited melt–mantle interaction are the important mantle processes there, because of the colder wall‐rock peridotite in the segment end. This ‘channeled melt flow‐type’ mantle process is likely to occur in the shallow lithospheric mantle at the segment ends of any spreading ridges.     

华池油田长33低渗油藏流动单元研究

流动单元的研究,其目的在于对油藏的非均质性有进一步的认识,为提高油藏描述的精度提供依据。本文根据流动单元的理论,选取适合该区实际的参数,应用聚类判别分析的方法,对华池油田陇东地区长33低渗储层进行分类研究,并且分析各类流动单元的特征及其控制因素,得出结论:该区储层可分为三类流动单元,各类流动单元的判别公式,不同的类型在动态、静态上有不同的表现;其分布的差异,宏观上受沉积微相的控制,微观上受成岩作用、岩石自身储集空间特征的限制。     

多项式的井间地震速度场反演方法

基于契比雪夫多项式的旅行时反演方法,不需进行入射角扫描,首先用多项式表示出深度和慢度,计算出从源点到接收点的旅行时间,通过与实际时间的误差修改模型参数,经过反复迭代,最终得到地下复杂构造的界面形态和速度变化。与网格化速度反演方法相比,计算的未知数少,对初始地质模型的依赖性小。模型试算表明,在初始地质模型与实际地质模型差别较大时,仍能取得比较好的反演结果。