变化中的地球所面临的挑战:全球变化的科学理解(英文)

简要介绍了变化中的地球所面临的挑战 ,并在描述地球系统科学近年来所取得成就的基础上给出了全球变化的科学理解。同时也简要介绍了世界正在面临的主要环境问题 ;描述了气候系统研究所达成的共识、面临的挑战及所取得的研究进展 ;并从大气、海洋和陆地间的CO2 交换、转换、不确定性等方面阐述了碳循环 ;然后 ,简单描述了全球水循环研究进展 ;最后 ,展望了在变化的地球中生存所要面临的挑战与机遇。     

Rates of Deglaciation during the Last Glaciation and Holocene in the Cordillera Vilcanota-Quelccaya Ice Cap Region, Southeastern Perú

Moraine chronology is combined with digital topography to model deglacial rates of paleoglacier volumes in both the Huancané Valley on the west side of the Quelccaya Ice Cap and the Upismayo Valley on the northwest side of the Cordillera Vilcanota. The fastest rates of deglaciation (39×10⁻⁵ to 114×10⁻⁵ km³ yr⁻¹ and 112×10⁻⁵ to 247×10⁻⁵ km³ yr⁻¹ for each valley, respectively) were calculated for the most recent paleoglaciers, corresponding to the last few centuries. These results are consistent with observations in the Venezuelan Andes showing high rates of deglaciation since the Little Ice Age. These rates also fall within the range of 20th century rates of deglaciation measured on the Quelccaya Ice Cap (29×10⁻⁵ to 220×10⁻⁵ km³ yr⁻¹, Brecher and Thompson, 1993; Thompson, 2000). These results imply that rates of deglaciation may fluctuate significantly over time and that high rates of deglaciation may not be exclusive to the late 20th century. Equilibrium line altitude (ELA) depressions for the ice volumes of the last glaciation modeled here were computed as 230 m for the Quelccaya Ice Cap and 170 m for the Cordillera Vilcanota. Maximum ELA depressions are lower than previously published: <500 m for the Cordillera Vilcanota and <400 m for the Quelccaya Ice Cap. These lower values could imply a topographic control over paleoglacier extent.     

Paleoecology of a Middle Wisconsin Deposit from Southern California

Analysis of a buried deposit in the Diamond Valley of southern California has revealed well-preserved pollen, wood, and diatom remains. Accelerator mass spectrometry dates of 41,200±2100 and 41,490±1380 ¹⁴C yr B.P. place this deposit in marine isotope stage 3. Diatoms suggest a shallow lacustrine environment. Pollen data suggest that several plant communities were present near the site, with grassland, scrub, chaparral, forest, and riparian communities represented. Comparison with modern pollen suggests similarities with montane forests in the nearby San Bernardino and San Jacinto ranges, indicating vegetation lowering by at least 900 m elevation and temperatures 4°–5°C cooler than today. An increase in high-elevation conifer pollen documents climatic cooling near the profile top. Early-profile diatoms are typical of warm water with high alkalinity and conductivity, whereas later diatoms suggest a higher flow regime and input of cooler water into the system. We suggest that the sequence is part of the cooling phase of an interstadial Dansgaard–Oeschger cycle. Records of the middle Wisconsin period are rare in southern California, but the Diamond Valley site is similar to records from Tulare Lake in the San Joaquin Valley and the ODP Site 893A record from Santa Barbara Basin. It is probable that the Diamond Valley assemblage is a local expression of a vegetation type widespread in the ranges and basins of southwestern California during the middle Wisconsin.     

The significance of rock structure,lithology and pre‐glacial deep weathering for the shape of intermediate‐scale glacial erosional landforms

The main landforms within the glacially scoured Precambrian rocks of the Swedish west coast are closely connected to the principal structural pattern and have lately been explained as mainly a result of etch processes, probably during the Mesozoic and with a possible second period of etching during the Neogene. To explore the effect of multiple glacial erosion on the rock surfaces, an island with two different lithologies and with striae from different directions was selected for a detailed study, focusing on the shape of roches moutonnées. Air‐photo interpretation of bedrock lineaments and roches moutonnées combined with detailed field mapping and striae measurements are used to interpret the structural and lithological control on the resulting shape. The study reveals a significant difference in shape between roches moutonnées in augen‐granite and orthogneiss. Low elongated and streamlined roches moutonnées occur in the gneiss area, striated by a Late Weichselian ice flow from the NE. This ice flow is subparallel with both the local dominant trend of topographically well‐expressed joints and the schistosity of the gneiss. Frequently, there are no signs of quarrying on the lee‐sides of the gneiss roches moutonnées and hence they resemble the shape of whalebacks, or ruwares, as typically associated with the exposed basal weathering surface found in tropical areas. The granite roches moutonnées were formed by an older ice flow from the ESE, which closely followed the etched WNW–ESE joint system of the granite. Late Weichselian ice flow from the NE caused only minor changes of the landforms. On the contrary, marks of the early ESE ice flow are poorly preserved in the gneiss area, where it probably never had any large effect as the flow was perpendicular to both schistosity and structures and, accordingly, also to the pre‐glacial relief. The study demonstrates that coincidence between ice flow direction and pre‐glacially etched structures is most likely to determine the effects of glacial erosion. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

两个冰期-间冰期旋回的黄土记录及其古气候意义

北京邻区枣沟、斋堂和赤峰黄土－古土壤剖面粒度和磁化率变化在幅度和相位上都有明显的差异。在两个冰期－间冰期旋回，磁化率记录具有冰量变化模式，而粒度记录具有轨道周期特点，粒度和磁化率之间的相位关系在从冰期向间冰期转换和冰期向间冰期过渡的过程中，既有滞后也有超前的表现，很难单纯以成土作用来解释。由于黄土粒度主要反映粉尘源区环境和古风场强度的变化，而磁化率主要记录的是沉积区的成壤作用，反映夏季风的强度变化，因此剖面粒度和磁化率变化的不协调说明古风场和粉尘源区变化与粉尘沉积区气候变化之间不统一。这可能意味着控制夏季风强度变化和控制冬季风强度变化的机制存在差异。     

Modelling of oxygen and nitrogen cycling as a function of macrophyte community in the Thau lagoon

A three-dimensional model coupling physical and biological processes for the whole Thau lagoon (Mediterranean coast of France) was developed in order to assess the relationships between macrophytes and the oxygen and nitrogen cycles. Ten species have been inserted as forcing variables in the model. Plankton dynamics, shellfish cultivation impact and mineralization of organic matter are also considered, as well as nutrient and oxygen exchanges between the sediment and the water column.Simulations with and without the macrophytes have shown that the system can be characterized as having a highly structured pattern involving lagoon nitrogen and oxygen cycles. This pattern is created by the combined influence of macrophytes, watershed and oyster farming.The model has been also used to assess the total annual macrophyte production at the whole lagoon scale. Comparisons with phytoplankton production and with results from other temperate lagoons have underlined the high productivity of the Thau lagoon supported by active nutrient regeneration.     

Temporal variations in magma composition at Merapi Volcano (Central Java, Indonesia): magmatic cycles during the past 2000 years of explosive activity

Merapi Volcano (Central Java, Indonesia) has been frequently active during Middle to Late Holocene time producing basalts and basaltic andesites of medium-K composition in earlier stages of activity and high-K magmas from 1900 ¹⁴C yr BP to the present. Radiocarbon dating of pyroclastic deposits indicates an almost continuous activity with periods of high eruption rates alternating with shorter time spans of distinctly reduced eruptive frequency since the first appearance of high-K volcanic rocks. Geochemical data of 28 well-dated, prehistoric pyroclastic flows of the Merapi high-K series indicate systematic cyclic variations. These medium-term compositional variations result from a complex interplay of several magmatic processes, which ultimately control the periodicity and frequency of eruptions at Merapi. Low eruption rates and the absence of new influxes of primitive magma from depth allow the generation of basaltic andesite magma (56–57 wt% SiO₂) in a small-volume magma reservoir through fractional crystallisation from parental mafic magma (52–53 wt% SiO₂) in periods of low eruptive frequency. Magmas of intermediate composition erupted during these stages provide evidence for periodic withdrawal of magma from a steadily fractionating magma chamber. Subsequent periods are characterised by high eruption rates that coincide with shifts of whole-rock compositions from basaltic andesite to basalt. This compositional variation is interpreted to originate from influxes of primitive magma into a continuously active magma chamber, triggering the eruption of evolved magma after periods of low eruptive frequency. Batches of primitive magma eventually mix with residual magma in the magmatic reservoir to decrease whole-rock SiO₂ contents. Supply of primitive magma at Merapi appears to be sufficiently frequent that andesites or more differentiated rock types were not generated during the past 2000 years of activity. Cyclic variations also occurred during the recent eruptive period since AD 1883. The most recent eruptive episode of Merapi is characterised by essentially uniform magma compositions that may imply the existence of a continuously active magma reservoir, maintained in a quasi-steady state by magma recharge. The whole-rock compositions at the upper limit of the total SiO₂ range of the Merapi suite could also indicate the beginning of another period of high eruption rates and shifts towards more mafic compositions.     

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Nepal Himalaya: A Manageable Hazard?

Within the past fifteen years, glacial lake outburst floods have become an activetopic of discussion within the development community focused on Nepal. Suchfloods endanger thousands of people, hundreds of villages, and basic infrastructuresuch as trails and bridges. The flood risk is also a major impediment to hydroelectricdevelopment in several river basins. Unlike most other mountain hazards in Nepal,reducing the possibility of outburst floods is technically feasible. The first attemptwithin Nepal to reduce the hazard of one lake by artificially lowering its water levelwas partially completed in June 2000. Completing this task and beginning work onother hazardous lakes will require difficult decisions about risk by downstream residentsand substantial investment from the international aid community.     

The postglacial history of three Picea species in New England, USA

Given the difficulty of separating the three Picea species—P. glauca, P. mariana, and P. rubens (white, black, and red spruce)—in the pollen record, little is known about their unique histories in eastern North America following deglaciation. Here we report the first use of a classification tree analysis (CART) to distinguish pollen grains of these species. It was successfully applied to fossil pollen from eight sites in Maine and one in Massachusetts. We focused on the late glacial/early Holocene (14,000 to 8000 cal yr B.P.) and the late Holocene (1400 cal yr B.P. to present)—the two key periods since deglaciation when Picea has been abundant in the region. The result shows a shift from a Picea forest of P. glauca and P. mariana in the late glacial to a forest of P. rubens and P. mariana in the late Holocene. The small number of P. rubens grains identified from the late glacial/early Holocene samples (<5%) suggests that that species was either absent or rare at most of the sites. The occurrence and distribution of the three species do not reveal any geographic or temporal trend during late glacial time, but the data suggest that they were distributed in local patches on the landscape. The results of this study indicate that the recent population expansion of Picea (1000 to 500 cal yr B.P.) was likely the first time since deglaciation that P. rubens was abundant in the region.