Rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment

This paper reviews and synthesizes findings from scholarly work on linkages among rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment. Using the livelihood approach as an organizing framework, we examine evidence on the multiple pathways linking environmental variables and the following demographic variables: fertility, migration, morbidity and mortality, and lifecycles. Although the review draws on studies from the entire developing world, we find the majority of microlevel studies have been conducted in either marginal (mountainous or arid) or frontier environments, especially Amazonia. Though the linkages are mediated by many complex and often context-specific factors, there is strong evidence that dependence on natural resources intensifies when households lose human and social capital through adult morbidity and mortality, and qualified evidence for the influence of environmental factors on household decision-making regarding fertility and migration. Two decades of research on lifecycles and land cover change at the farm level have yielded a number of insights about how households make use of different land-use and natural resource management strategies at different stages. A thread running throughout the review is the importance of managing risk through livelihood diversification, ensuring future income security, and culture-specific norms regarding appropriate and desirable activities and demographic responses. Recommendations for future research are provided.     

气象风险源的社会关注度风险等级分析方法

为了定量分析社会公众对气象风险关注等级程度以及对应等级的关注人数,综合应用模糊数学和多项式拟合方法,以西安市2004年1月至2007年10月,与当地公众生活关系密切的5类高影响天气事件,即:高温、雷暴、大到暴雨、中雨和小雨,作为潜在气象风险源,综合应用12121气象信息服务电话拨打次数和气象信息,计算出气象风险超越概率,通过对其4次多项式的拟合和求解,定量计算了一般、中、高三等级的气象风险关注度以及对应等级的关注人数.这有利于政府决策者及社会公众在响应气象风险时有较为定量的判断.     

山区雨水利用现状分析

通过对山区雨水利用现状的分析,指出当前我国山区雨水利用过程中存在的问题,阐述了在山区开展雨水利用的必要性。通过新密市集雨自压节灌工程实例,证明集雨工程具有投资少、见效快、效益大等特点,可有效解决制约山区经济发展的瓶颈。     

乐山市地面风场特征及风能资源初探

利用乐山市1971~2005年整编风资料对乐山市各区县地面风场进行了全面分析,并对全市风能资源的分布情况进行了研究,旨在对今后乐山市风的预报及其相关服务有较好的帮助。     

气候变化对中国水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架

 通过论述气候变化对中国水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架,提出一个气候变化影响决策评估工具,它包括：未来气候变化对中国水资源潜在影响的定性描述分析、半定量与定量分析以及适应性对策评估。由于不同气候区域所面临的水资源问题不同,选择中国4个典型案例区域,并确定不同的目标进行气候变化适应性管理综合研究,提出了甄别气候变化影响和适应性管理的新的思路、框架与方法论。该项研究为应对未来气候变化影响的水资源规划与风险管理提供了途径与方法。     

二次规划在调水决策和水分配问题中的应用

首先用二次函数建立了企业用水量与其用水效益的关系,然后根据这种关系,利用拉格朗日乘数法来确定该地区最优化水资源分配方案,并得到了该地区总的用水量与用水效益的关系,最终建立了区域调水中各地区间的调水总量的分配模型。此时原问题转化为一个典型的二次规划问题,结合各个地区的用水效益情况,可实现对各地区、各行业分水。利用假设的理想数据对模型进行检验,取得了较好的结果。对南水北调的实际情况,根据北方6个缺水地区基本的水资源及工农业用水情况进行了实际数据模拟,提出了南水北调的简单分配方案。该模型不仅可以用于区域间调水的优化控制,而且还可应用到其他水资源分配与管理。     

四川的地热水资源

四川的地热水资源丰富，大多数热水出露于构造断裂带和洒谷地区，主要储集在三叠纪地层中的碳酸盐岩里。根据温（热）泉的分布状况、热水的类型和物理化学特征，对地热田进行了预测分区。     

水资源可持续利用规划耦合模型与应用

介绍了水资源可持续利用规划耦合模型和应用实例。从数学形式上看,它是多目标优化模型,目标函数选用自由度较高并具竞争性的系统状态指标;约束条件应该包括各相关子系统的状态模拟方程,使模拟与优化实现耦合。在研究实例中,选用了GDP和COD排放量指标来表征研究区的经济发展和环境状况,约束条件主要包括水资源系统模拟模型和宏观经济系统扩大再生产—投入产出耦合模型。由于水资源可持续利用规划决策是半结构化的决策问题,开发决策支持系统辅助决策有助于提高决策的科学性和有效性。     

Contested H2O: Science, policy and politics in water resources management in Chile

This paper critically explores the politics that mediate the use of environmental science assessments as the basis of resource management policy. Drawing on recent literature in the political ecology tradition that has emphasised the politicised nature of the production and use of scientific knowledge in environmental management, the paper analyses a hydrological assessment in a small river basin in Chile, undertaken in response to concerns over the possible overexploitation of groundwater resources. The case study illustrates the limitations of an approach based predominantly on hydrogeological modelling to ascertain the effects of increased groundwater abstraction. In particular, it identifies the subjective ways in which the assessment was interpreted and used by the state water resources agency to underpin water allocation decisions in accordance with its own interests, and the role that a desocialised assessment played in reproducing unequal patterns of resource use and configuring uneven waterscapes. Nevertheless, as Chile’s ‘neoliberal’ political-economic framework privileges the role of science and technocracy, producing other forms of environmental knowledge to complement environmental science is likely to be contentious. In conclusion, the paper considers the potential of mobilising the concept of the hydrosocial cycle to further critically engage with environmental science.     

西藏冈底斯多金属成矿带斑岩铜矿定位预测与资源潜力评价

自1999年开展地质大调查以来,冈底斯成矿带斑岩铜矿研究取得了重大进展.本文在全面收集冈底斯成矿带地质、矿产和物化探资料基础上,建立了本区GIS平台上的资源预测评价系统.采用数理统计分析,确定了冈底斯成矿带斑岩铜矿定位预测的定量化标志35个,认为对斑岩铜矿预测影响比较重要的地质变量(因素权重>0.2)为花岗岩体(不限时代)、Cu、Mo、W、Au、Ag、Bi化探异常、Cu-Mo、Cu-Mo-Au、Cu-Au-Ag组合化探异常、矿床规模、重力场中低负异常场等.在此基础上,开展了工作区斑岩铜矿的定位预测,圈定了斑岩铜矿成矿远景区33处,计算结果与实际矿产分布和地质理论分析相吻合.采用面金属量法对冈底斯成矿带斑岩铜矿的资源潜力进行了估算,结果表明,冈底斯地区仍具有良好的斑岩铜矿找矿远景,1 000 m以浅的潜在铜资源量可达1亿吨以上.其中,驱龙-甲马-拉抗俄、松多雄、白容-冲江、松多握、吉如、达布、汤不拉、龙卡朗、崩不弄金矿、洞嘎、雄村、麦热-仁钦则、蒙哑啊东北、吹败子、岗达、沙让-亚贵拉、青龙-龙马拉、冲木达、洛麦南、拉屋找矿潜力较大.