On stress-forecasting strategy of earthquakes from stress buildup,stress shadow and stress transfer (SSS) based on numerical approach

Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), used for monitoring crust deformation, are found to be very promising in earthquake prediction subject to stress-forecasting. However, it is recognized that unless we can give reasonable explanations of these curious precursory phenomena that continue to be serendipitously observed from time to time, such high technology of GPS or InSAR is difficult to be efficiently used. Therefore, a proper model revealing the relation between earthquake evolution and stress variation, such as the phenomena of stress buildup, stress shadow and stress transfer (SSS), is crucial to the GPS or InSAR based earthquake prediction. Here we address this question through a numerical approach of earthquake development using an intuitive physical model with a map-like configuration of discontinuous fault system. The simulation provides a physical basis for the principle of stress-forecasting of earthquakes based on SSS and for the application of GPS or InSAR in earthquake prediction. The observed SSS associated phenomena with images of stress distribution during the failure process can be continuously simulated. It is shown that the SSS are better indicators of earthquake precursors than that of seismic foreshocks, suggesting a predictability of earthquakes based on stress-forecasting strategy.     

Elements and Element Components of the Rural Landscape in Linpan of Western Sichuan in Relation to Perception,Preference and Stress Recovery

Natural environments contribute to people’s perception, preference and health restoration. Many researchers have focused either on the positive effects of overall rural environments on stress recovery or concentrated on the perception and preference aspects of the rural landscape, but few have integrated perception, preference and stress recovery simultaneously. This paper developed a framework which includes 11 elements and 38 element components related to Linpan, China, and distributed it online as part of a survey. As a result, a total of 324 valid questionnaires were collected. The questionnaire included demographic details, perception and preference degree for Linpan, as well as self-estimations of stress recovery. Stepwise multiple linear regression was employed, and revealed 16 significant predictors for the perception, preference and stress recovery in rural environments. In terms of elements, atmosphere and imagery were the two elements that could be best perceived, while woodland, farmland, water, residence and road were the five most important elements for the preference. Moreover, seven elements were also identified as significant predictors for stress recovery. Among the element components, tranquility as well as road and water proximity were the two significant predictors for perception, while wide visibility as well as woodland and residence blending contributed significantly to stress recovery. The five element components of woodland interior, vegetable field, stream, courtyard space and branch road each had a significantly predictive ability for preference and stress recovery. These findings extend the understanding of the perception, preference and restorative properties of rural environments through the combination of elements and element components in Linpan of Western Sichuan, helping to improve the quality and characteristics of rural external and internal environments and create health-promoting environments.     

级配碎石填料大三轴试验及累积塑性应变预测模型

级配碎石作为重载铁路基床表层的主要填料,其受列车荷载的影响最大。因此,研究级配碎石在循环荷载作用下的动力行为及累积塑性应变演化特征变得尤为重要。首先,通过制备不同细粒含量的级配碎石填料,开展一系列大型动三轴试验,探究细粒含量、围压及动应力幅值对循环荷载作用下试样累积塑性应变的耦合影响机制。其次,基于塑性安定理论,确定不同应力水平下试样的动力行为,得到考虑围压及细粒含量参数的塑性蠕变状态临界动应力计算模型。最后,结合试验数据,建立考虑应力水平及细粒含量参数的塑性蠕变动力行为累积塑性应变预测模型,并明确各参数的物理意义。其研究成果可为既有重载铁路路基健康状态评估及考虑强度、变形综合控制的路基结构设计提供参考。     

Effect of Initial Stress Conditions on the Threshold Shear Strain of Nanjing’s Saturated Fine Sand

By using GDS dynamic hollow cylinder torsional apparatus, a series of cyclic torsional triaxial tests under complex initial consolidation condition are performed on Nanjing saturated fine sand. The effects of the initial principal stress direction α0, the initial ratio of deviatoric stress η0, the initial average effective principal stress p0 and the initial intermediate principal stress parameter b0 on the threshold shear strain y, of Nanjing saturated fine sand are then systematically investigated. The results show that y, increases as η0, P0 and b0 increase respectively, while the other three parameters remain constant. α0 has a great influence on y,, which is reduced when α0 increases from 0° to 45° and increased when α0 increases from 45° to 90°. The effect of α0 on γt plays a leading role and the effect of η0 will weaken when α0 is approximately 45°.     

甜瓜种子萌发和幼苗生长对NaCl胁迫的响应

在盆栽条件下研究了NaCl胁迫对黄河蜜和白沙蜜甜瓜种子萌发和幼苗生长的影响。结果表明:NaCl胁迫对甜瓜种子吸水和累计发芽率影响较小,但明显延缓后期吸水和发芽进程。50 mmol·L-1以上NaCl浓度下,甜瓜种子相对发芽指数、相对活力指数和胚根生长量均下降。NaCl胁迫抑制甜瓜幼苗高度、株叶面积增长和干物质积累,抑制作用具有浓度和时间依赖性。NaCl胁迫对甜瓜幼苗形态生长的抑制作用强于对物质积累的抑制作用,对根系干物质积累的抑制作用高于对地上部干物质积累的抑制作用,对白沙蜜的抑制作用强于对黄河蜜的抑制作用。甜瓜种子和幼苗能适应的临界NaCl浓度在100~150 mmol·L-1之间,厚皮甜瓜可能更适合作为咸水灌溉和盐碱地生产的经济作物。     

海底双层管单层连接管道结构受力分析

粘性高的海洋石油通常需要通过海底保温管道加温输送.温度变化会引起管道变形,并在管壁内产生较大的温度应力.同时,管道正常运营期间还受到管道内压、外压、管内流体粘滞力和土体摩擦力等环境荷载的作用.复杂的环境可能导致海底管道轴向应力过大发生破坏.为了提高铺管效率,提出了双层管单层连接管道这一特殊管道形式,并从理论上分析温度变化和环境荷载对该管道的影响,计算正常运行时管道不同位置处横截面内最大Von-Mises应力.最后得到了Von-Mises应力沿管道轴线分布情况,发现内管和单层连接管的应力一般比外管大,变径管和内管的焊缝处是Von-Mises应力最大的地方.     

重复压裂转向机制流-固耦合分析

重复压裂已成为油田老井挖潜、稳产增产的重要技术手段,而地应力转向机制与压裂时机选择一直是制约该技术增产效果的关键问题。对ABAQUS有限元软件平台进行了二次开发,考虑储层孔隙度和渗透性随岩石体积应变的动态演化,实现了流体压力变化与岩石物性参数的全面耦合,并分析了重复压裂转向机制。结果表明,地应力转向现象普遍存在,人工裂缝对地应力的影响范围有限,而孔隙压力变化是造成地应力转向的主要因素;随着生产的持续进行,地层压力下降变缓,岩石体积应变变化趋缓,导致渗透率下降趋于平稳,应力转向距离逐渐增大并最终趋稳;应力差越大、应力转向距离越小,越难形成重复压裂转向裂缝。其研究结果实现了流-固耦合作用下地应力转向的可视化描述,直观地模拟结果有利于指导重复压裂的应用实施。     

瞬时地壳运动与地震短临预报

本文在利用卫星红外扫描仪观测资料的基础上，探讨地震前低空大气的增温是地壳瞬时运动的表现，也是地球－大气耦合现象。通过分析，给出瞬时地壳运动引起增温的三种可能机制：岩石的辐射能量增加；岩层中ＣＨ＿４、ＣＯ＿２等气体溢出和太阳辐射导致增温；ＣＨ＿４、ＣＯ＿２含量增高和低空电场异常激发。并通过某些震例的增温展布形态及规律，恢复震前应力场和热增温演化特征：我国大陆东部ＮＮＥ方向为主压应力方向，大陆东南沿海主压应力方向ＳＮ向，而我国大陆西部地区主压应力方向为ＳＮ向，在青藏高原的东北部派生主压应力为ＮＥ向。最后，介绍了这几年试验性预报效果检验：４年多总共预报３２次，其中虚报２次，７次较准，１７次较好，６次较差，漏报强震８次。最后涉及到地震孕育、发生过程中的机理的初步研究结果。     

饱和黏性土和砂砾石料振动孔压的试验研究

在国内外主要孔压发展模型的基础上,对某土石坝心墙防渗黏性土和坝基砂砾石料饱和试样进行动三轴试验,提出了两种材料的顾淦臣孔压模型,并对砂砾石料的孔压发展规律作了深入地分析,提出了不同固结比Kc时振动孔压比和振次比的函数关系。试验结果表明,动孔压随振动周数和振动强度的增加而增加,随固结应力比或初始剪应力比的增加而减小;无论等压或偏压固结,黏性土均不会出现动孔压ud等于围压力? 3c的液化现象,其孔压比Ru均小于0.5,多数试样Ru = 0.1~0.4;当等压固结Kc =1.0时,砂砾石料最终孔压值均可达到围压;偏压固结Kc ≥1.5后,试样是否达到Ru= ud /? 3c =1.0取决于动应力? d是否大于主应力差（? 1c－? 3c）,即? d是否形成拉应力,使试件伸长,但当Kc很大后,? 1c和? 3c相差太大,需施加非常大的? d才能使其应力应变反向,试样的大变形先于Ru=1.0的应力状态出现,即不可能达到初始液化;固结比Kc对不同土料动孔压的影响是不同的。