A model for the Am (Km) planetary geomagnetic activity index and application to prediction

We studied the existence of dynamical stochastic relations in the evolution of the am index. A first analysis of the autocorrelation functions showed evidence of several seasonalities. We first used linear (ARMA) models, and it was found that these do not account for the whole internal dynamics of the data series. We then used various non-linear models to provide a better fit to reality. The forecast performances of the non-linear models are not significantly different from those of the linear model. We give a tentative explanation for the failure of the non-linear predictions. Finally, ARCH models were used in order to take into account the fact that the confidence interval for the predicted value depends on past observations.     

Invariants in toroidal and tangentially geostrophic frozen-flux velocity fields

We derive two new types of invariant that must be obeyed by the radial magnetic field at the core-mantle boundary if the hypothesis of frozen flux is valid and the fluid motion is either toroidal or tangentially geostrophic there. These general invariants incorporate specific invariants that are already known and can, in principle, be tested using magnetic data that cover an interval of time.     

Periodicity of magnetic intensities in magnetic anomaly profiles: the Cenozoic of the South Atlantic

Spectral analyses of several published magnetic anomaly profiles from Candé & Kent (1992a) were undertaken prior to analysing, in the same way, raw magnetic anomaly data from similar parts of the South Atlantic. It was found that similar and distinct medium and short wavelengths were present in both the published and raw data. When these are converted into the time domain using the average rate of spreading for each profile, these periodicities appear similar, possibly identical, to those expected from the long-term eccentricity orbital parameters (Fischer, DeBoer & Premoli Silva 1990). While such correlations are not necessarily causative, they suggest that magnetohydro-dynamical processes near the core-mantle boundary may be affected by gravitational changes due to planetary orbital perturbations.     

静海地震台地磁短周期变化及其在地震短临预报中的应用

近年来的一些研究表明，由于地震前孕震区地下介质的电性结构的变化，将导致地磁短周期转换函数发生异常变化。通过对地震前后的地磁短周期转换函数的参数的计算、分析和研究，有可能提取出可靠的地震短临前兆异常（曾小苹等，１９９０）。为了进一步开展对该方法研究工作并使其在我区地震预测预报研究中得到应用，我们使用了静海台的地磁记录资料，分析计算了该台地磁短周期转换函数在地震前后的变化情况，确立了该方法应用天津地区地震预报的短临异常特征及指标，取得了较好的效果。     

地球脉动——表现、级别及与古地磁的联系

地球脉动的概念是指地球在其历史中曾发生膨胀和收缩的周期性变化。其根据是构造变动、岩浆活动、地磁极倒转以及海平面升降等方面，在地球的膨胀和收缩期，均有各种表现。构造 海平面升降在地球收缩期形成海退，在膨胀期形成海侵。在一个地球脉动旋回的不同时期，地表、海平面和洋底之间的相互关系均有变化，因而形成“层序”的沉积记录。地磁场的强度和地磁极倒转频率在显生宙有明显变化，有高峰期和平静期。这种频率变化与构造变动和岩浆活动都有对应关系，特别是４Ｍａ为准周期的地磁极倒转频率与海底扩张、洋壳形成速率之间具有良好的对应关系。地球脉动旋回可以分为不同的级次，构成级别体系：超级旋回约１Ｇａ，巨旋回２５０～３００Ｍａ，一级旋回５０～１５０Ｍａ，二级旋回５～５０Ｍａ，三级旋回１～５Ｍａ，均可与构造旋回相对应，更高的级次对构造不形成影响。三级及更长的脉动旋回可能受深部过程的控制。中、新生代以来，地球脉动是在地球适度膨胀的背景下进行的。     

巴楚-伽师Ms6.8地震地磁异常特点分析

通过分析、比较1996--2003年喀什地震台站记录到的新疆伽师及附近地区发生的多次6级地震的地磁前兆异常特征，发现在这几组地震活动过程中喀什地震台的地磁表现出不同的异常特征，说明与地震破裂特征有更深层次的相关性，且地磁响应比异常和总强度差值异常在一定程度上反映了台站周围小范围的震源区介质电性结构的变化。巴楚-伽师6．8级地震前地磁异常特征并不十分突出，有别于1996—1998年伽师强震群震前地磁异常量较丰富的特点。     

河北平原廊固凹陷ACX03孔晚上新世以来地层与沉积*

基于河北平原廊固凹陷东北部ACX03孔(深300.0 m)浅部¹⁴C年龄和磁性地层,建立钻孔第四纪地层格架,依据ACX03孔岩心沉积物、测井曲线和微体古生物特征划分沉积层段并分析沉积环境。研究结果表明: ACX03孔B/M(布容/松山)、M/G(松山/高斯)极性界线分别位于83.8 m、220.2 m,孔底年龄约3.2 Ma,划分13个沉积层段。上新统(220.2~300.0 m)为河道、河漫滩夹湖泊沉积,下更新统(85.2~220.2 m)为河道、湖泊、河漫滩沉积,中更新统(61.5~85.2 m)为分支河道夹河漫滩及河间洼地—湖沼沉积,上更新统(23.2~61.5 m)为河漫滩、分支河道沉积,全新统(0~23.2 m)为泛滥平原、河曲—牛轭湖沉积。对比ACX03孔与邻近钻孔第四纪地层认为,河北平原廊坊—固安一带早更新世差异性沉降最强,之后一直到全新世越来越弱。