Probabilistic risk assessment of common booster biocides in surface waters of the harbours of Gran Canaria (Spain)

The presence of booster biocides in the aquatic environment has been associated with a risk to non-target species due to their proven toxicity. The aim of the present study was to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of common booster biocides in different harbours of the island of Gran Canaria (Spain) and evaluate, by means of a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), the ecological risk posed by these compounds. With these objectives, a monitoring campaign was conducted between January 2008 and May 2009, collecting a total of 182 seawater samples. Four common booster biocides (TCMTB, diuron, Irgarol 1051 and dichlofluanid) were monitored. Diuron levels ranged between 2.3 and 203 ng/L and Irgarol 1051 between 2.4 and 146.5 ng/L. The ecological risk associated with these levels was always low, however, with probabilities of exceeding the 10th percentile of autotroph toxicity below 3.5%.     

Assessment of health safety from ingestion of natural radionuclides in seafoods from a tropical coast, India

The activities of ²¹⁰Po and ²¹⁰Pb were determined in commonly consumed seafoods to evaluate the internal exposure and risk to humans residing Kudankulam coast where a mega nuclear power plant is under construction. The concentration of ²¹⁰Po in seafoods ranged from 1.2 ± 0.7 to 248 ± 8.1 Bq kg⁻¹. Meanwhile, ²¹⁰Pb ranged between 1.1 ± 0.05 and 14.8 ± 1.6 Bq kg⁻¹. The committed effective dose (CED) due to ²¹⁰Po and ²¹⁰Pb varied from 11.04 to 515.6 and 3.93 to 23.5 μSv yr⁻¹, respectively. The lifetime cancer risk for the public due to ²¹⁰Po was in the range of 3.47 × 10⁻⁵-1.62 × 10⁻³ and it was 4.03 × 10⁻⁵-1.96 × 10⁻⁴ due to ²¹⁰Pb. The activity intake, effective dose and cancer risk was found lesser than international guidelines and the seafood intake was considered to be safe for human consumption.     

甘肃古浪长岭山北麓断裂新活动特征与地震危险性

通过野外调查和探槽开挖,并结合b值计算结果,对位于甘肃省中部古浪县的长岭山北麓断层的几何学、运动学特征、活动性分段及地震危险性进行了研究.研究认为长岭山北麓断裂主要由四条断层组成,总体呈反“S”形展布;断层最新活动在西段f1表现为倾向南的左旋正断性质,在西段f2和中段f3表现为向北倾的左旋正断性质,东段f4又转变为倾向南的左旋正断活动性质,断裂西端以秦家大山南北向隆起及第三系褶皱与古浪断裂隔断,东端以白墩子左旋拉张盆地与罐罐岭断裂左阶排列,阶距3.5 km;断裂带全新世早中期以来有过地震活动,最后一次活动离逝时间较长,现代应力积累较快,为未来地震危险区.     

化工园区重大事故风险分析

目前我国对化工园区风险分析的理论研究尚处于起步阶段。针对化工园区这一特殊区域,从整体角度出发,分析研究了化工园区内多个重大事故风险源造成的区域风险,并进行了实例应用。综合考虑多个重大事故风险源产生的风险,分析了其产生风险的叠加效应,绘制出化工园区的个人风险等值线;同时根据ALARP（合理可接受风险水平）准则对化工园区的风险水平进行评估,并据此给出化工园区安全规划、风险控制和应急救援工作的实施建议。所提出的化工园区重大事故风险分析方法,在建立和完善化工园区风险分析中具有一定的理论和现实意义。     

气候变化适应行动实施框架——宁夏农业案例实践

宁夏是我国生态脆弱区和贫困区之一,以宁夏为例开展农业适应行动实践具有一定的代表性和示范作用。根据气候变化适应行动实施框架,研究结果表明：宁夏未来气候干旱风险将增加,水资源短缺矛盾加剧,极端气候事件频率和强度加大。未来宁夏北部灌区农业应以发展节水灌溉和高效种植为主,中部以设施农业和牧业为主,南部以发展特色农业为主。气象部门和水利部门对适应技术的适应效果持乐观态度,农牧业部门和林业部门则态度谨慎。适应措施能否实施的首要条件是措施符合国家和地方的政策方针,其次是成本效益;在实施条件中,要求相对比较弱化的是公众对气候风险的认知程度以及措施的灵活调整性。在适应措施选择上,气象服务和种植结构调整成为首选的适应技术,而覆盖技术、节水技术由于更倾向于传统的技术范畴,虽然效果较好,但对其适应优先性选择存在影响。     

Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.     

黑龙江省暴雪时空分布特征与发生风险研究

暴雪是黑龙江省常见的灾害性天气之一,基于1970～2006年黑龙江省78个市（县）的逐日降雪资料,对暴雪初、终日分布规律,暴雪的时间、空间分布特征进行分析,采用信息扩散理论计算了各市（县）发生不同暴雪日数的概率风险估计值,并结合GIS技术进行风险区划．研究表明：黑龙江省暴雪初始日期和终止日期37a来变化不大,初始日出现...     

Human Health Risk Assessment Model of Organic Pollution in Groundwater: Shijiazhuang Industrial Zone

In this study, a risk-based management model is developed and applied to an industrial zone. The models proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency and Han Bing have been improved by adding a residual ratio of volatile organic compounds (VOC) after boiling and deleting the related parameters in half-life. Using this improved model, an integrated process was used to assess human health risk level in the study area. Compared with water quality analysis, the results highlight the importance of applying an integrated approach for decision making on risk levels and water protection. The results of this study demonstrated that: (1) Compared with these permissible level standards in China (GB 3838-2002) and National Primary Drinking Water Regulations of the United States, the residents’ daily life had not been affected by the groundwater in this area (except for relative bad water quality of HB3-4 and HB3-6); (2) The typical detected organic contaminants of all groundwater samples were chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, trichloroethylene and tetrachloroethene, and the pollution sources were mainly industrial sources by preliminary investigations; (3) As for groundwater, the non-carcinogenic risk values of all samples do not exceed the permissible level of 1.0 and the carcinogenic risk values are relatively lower than the permissible level of 1.00E-06 to 1.00E-04; (4) Drinking water pathway of trichloroethylene and tetrachloroethylene mainly contribute to increasing the health risk of residents’ in study areas; (5) In terms of non-carcinogenic risk and carcinogenic risk, the health risk order for drinking water pathway and dermal contact pathway was: drinking water pathway > dermal contact pathway.     

南水北调中线降水丰枯遭遇风险分析

受降水丰枯变化不确定性和差异性的影响,南水北调中线工程水源区与受水区降水的丰枯遭遇状态各不相同,给南水北调工程水资源调度运行带来风险。联合copula函数和贝叶斯网络理论,建立了南水北调中线工程水源区和受水区降水丰枯遭遇风险分析模型,对南水北调中线工程调水最不利的丰枯遭遇风险概率进行了研究。利用copula函数建立了水源区和受水区年降水量联合分布函数,计算条件概率,结合贝叶斯网络进行丰枯遭遇风险分析。结果表明南水北调中线4个受水区调水风险的概率均在25%以下,并对不同情景的调水风险进行了仿真分析。     

我国矿业资本市场风险投资浅析

矿产资源是国民经济和社会发展的重要物质基础,矿产资源的勘探、开发利用对国民经济的持续发展起到重要的保障和促进作用.而我国矿业企业正处于一个全新的发展时期,上市难度大,还需不断完善矿业资本市场,加速发展矿业资本市场风险投资以解决日益凸昱的资金缺乏问题,促进我国矿业企业发展为具有国际竞争力的矿业集团.