Geochemical fractionation and ecological risks assessment of benthic sediment-bound heavy metals from coastal ecosystems off the Equatorial Atlantic Ocean

This study determines the pollution, fractionation, and ecological risks of sediment-bound heavy metals from coastal ecosystems off the Equatorial Atlantic Ocean. Contamination Factor(CF), pollution load index(PLI), and geoaccumulation index(Igeo) were used to assess the extent of the heavy metal pollution, while the potential ecological risk was evaluated using the risks assessment code(RAC) and Hkanson potential ecological risk. The analysis revealed concentrations(mg/g, dw) of the cadmium(Cd),chromium(Cr), copper(Cu), nickel(Ni), and lead(Pb) in sediments for wet and dry seasons vary from 4.40-5.08, 14.80-21.09. 35.03-44.8, 2.14-2.28, and 172.24-196.39, respectively. The results also showed that the metal fractionation percentages in the residual, oxidizable, and reducible fractions are the most significant, while the exchangeable and carbonate bound trace metals are relatively low. The RAC values indicate no risk for Cd and Ni and low risk for other metals at all the studied sites during both seasons.Potential ecological risk analysis of the heavy metal concentrations indicates that Cd had high individual potential ecological risk, while the other metals have low risk at all investigated sites. The multi-elemental potential ecological risk indices(R_1) indicate high ecological risk in all the ecosystems.     

Natural flood management,land use and climate change trade-offs: the case of Tarland catchment,Scotland

A distributed hydrological model (WaSiM-ETH) was applied to a mesoscale catchment to investigate natural flood management as a nonstructural approach to tackle flood risks from climate change. Peak flows were modelled using climate projections (UKCP09) combined with afforestation-based land-use change options. A significant increase in peak flows was modelled from climate change. Afforestation could reduce some of the increased flow, with greatest benefit from coniferous afforestation, especially replacing lowland farmland. Nevertheless, large-scale woodland expansion was required to maintain peak flows similar to present and beneficial effects were significantly reduced for larger “winter-type” extreme floods. Afforestation was also modelled to increase low-flow risks. Land-use scenarios showed catchment-scale trade-offs across multiple objectives meant “optimal” flood risk solutions were unlikely, especially for afforestation replacing lowland farmland. Hence, combined structural/nonstructural measures may be required in such situations, with integrated catchment management to synergize multiple objectives.     

青藏高原东南缘活动断裂的地震应变能释放系统研究

本文以青藏高原东南缘为研究区域,利用G-R震级能量经验公式和Benioff地震应变能释放曲线,对该区域内1500年以来的历史地震应变能释放进行了系统性的研究。文中给出了各断裂带和断块区的地震应变能释放周期表,及相应的地震危险性。分析发现研究区域地震应变能的释放具有东强西弱,南强北弱的特征,整体上各断层断块区的历史地震应变能释放符合准周期模式,某些断层和断块区上的地震周期具有某种程度上的同步现象。青藏高原东南缘现今处于大释放期中,地震的危险性不能忽视。局部结果显示,安宁河-则木河断裂带、小江断裂带的危险性很高,对于这些危险区要重点跟踪研究。今后仍需结合不同研究方法来提高地震危险性评估的可靠性。     

Distribution,potential sources and ecological risks of two persistent organic pollutants in the intertidal sediment at the Shuangtaizi Estuary,Bohai Sea of China

Spatial distribution, source apportionment, and potential ecological risks of sixteen polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and seven endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) in the intertidal sediment at the Shuangtaizi Estuary, Bohai Sea of China were analyzed. Results showed that the total PAH concentrations ranged from 28.79 ng g^? 1 dw to 281.97 ng g^? 1 dw (mean: 115.92 ng g^? 1 dw) and the total EDC concentrations from 0.52 ng g^? 1 dw to 126.73 ng g^? 1 dw (mean: 37.49 ng g^? 1 dw). The distribution pattern for the PAHs was generally different from that of the EDCs possibly due to their distinct sources and n-octanol-/water partition coefficients (K_OW). Qualitative and quantitative analytical results showed that PAH sources were mainly from a mixture of pyrogenic and petrogenic contributions. The higher levels at the southeast of Geligang indicated that the EDC pollutants may have mainly originated from the plastic industry and other chemical plants located along the Liao River. Ecological risk assessment revealed that PAHs exhibited low ecotoxicological effects, whereas EDCs, especially 4-tert-octylphenol and bisphenol A, had high ecological hazard to the estuarine biota.     

IM‐based and EDP‐based decision models for the verification of the seismic collapse safety of buildings

Decision models for the verification of seismic collapse safety of buildings are introduced. The derivations are based on the concept of the acceptable (target) annual probability of collapse, whereas the decision making involves comparisons between seismic demand and capacity, which is familiar to engineering practitioners. Seismic demand, which corresponds to the design seismic action associated with a selected return period, can be expressed either in terms of an intensity measure (IM) or an engineering demand parameter (EDP). Seismic capacity, on the other hand, is defined by dividing the near‐collapse limit‐state IM or EDP by an appropriate risk‐targeted safety factor (γ _im or γ _edp ), which is the only safety factor used in the proposed decision model. Consequently, the seismic performance assessment of a building should be based on the best possible estimate. For a case study, it is shown that if the target collapse risk is set to 10^?4 (0.5% over a period of 50 years), and if the seismic demand corresponds to a return period of 475 years (10% over a period of 50 years), then it can be demonstrated that γ _im is approximately equal to 2.5 for very stiff buildings, whereas for buildings with long periods the value of γ _im can increase up to a value of approximately 5. The model using γ _edp is equal to that using γ _im only if it can be assumed that displacements, with consideration of nonlinear behavior, are equal to displacements from linear elastic analysis.     

Modeling spatially correlated spectral accelerations at multiple periods using principal component analysis and geostatistics

Regional seismic risk assessments and quantification of portfolio losses often require simulation of spatially distributed ground motions at multiple intensity measures. For a given earthquake, distributed ground motions are characterized by spatial correlation and correlation between different intensity measures, known as cross‐correlation. This study proposes a new spatial cross‐correlation model for within‐event spectral acceleration residuals that uses a combination of principal component analysis (PCA) and geostatistics. Records from 45 earthquakes are used to investigate earthquake‐to‐earthquake trends in application of PCA to spectral acceleration residuals. Based on the findings, PCA is used to determine coefficients that linearly transform cross‐correlated residuals to independent principal components. Nested semivariogram models are then fit to empirical semivariograms to quantify the spatial correlation of principal components. The resultant PCA spatial cross‐correlation model is shown to be accurate and computationally efficient. A step‐by‐step procedure and an example are presented to illustrate the use of the predictive model for rapid simulation of spatially cross‐correlated spectral accelerations at multiple periods.     

Intermediate to Long-term Estimation of Strong Earthquake Risk Areas in the Chinese Mainland Based on Geodesic Measurements

Based on previous research results, present-day crustal deformation and gravity fields in the Chinese mainland are analyzed using the GPS data, leveling, gravity and cross-fault deformations. We analyzed strain accumulation of the major faults, and identified locked or high strain accumulation segments. Combining the effects of large earthquakes in the study area, the long-term (decade) probability of large earthquakes in the Chinese mainland is estimated.     

高强度地震下建筑施工场点危险性建模分析

在高强度地震环境下,建筑施工场点易发生危险,传统方法运用AHP算法对建筑施工场点的危险性进行分析,但未考虑抗震约束,存在分析效果差的弊端。因此,提出一种高强度地震下建筑施工场点危险性建模分析方法。首先采用TOPSIS方法得到地震风险评估指标,构建风险评估指标的物元分析模型,基于AHP-熵权法的组合赋权获取地震风险评估指标的综合权重。然后通过贝叶斯网络来推导高强度地震下建筑施工场点危险性参数,运用地震等级的划分标准和推算方法,依据建筑施工场点危险性评估准则和接受原则APLARP,利用物元分析模型中不同危险节点的致因关系和综合权重构建施工场点风险评估模型,完成对高强度地震下建筑施工场点危险性的建模分析。实验结果表明,所设计模型可准确分析高强度地震下建筑施工场点的危险性,能够确保整体施工的安全性,具有重要的应用价值。     

Validation of the SCEC Broadband Platform simulations for tall building risk assessments considering spectral shape and duration of the ground motion

Earthquake simulation technologies are advancing to the stage of enabling realistic simulations of past earthquakes as well as characterizations of more extreme events, thus holding promise of yielding novel insights and data for earthquake engineering. With the goal of developing confidence in the engineering applications of simulated ground motions, this paper focuses on validation of simulations for response history analysis through comparative assessments of building performance obtained using sets of recorded and simulated motions. Simulated ground motions of past earthquakes, obtained through a larger validation study of the Southern California Earthquake Center Broadband Platform, are used for the case study. Two tall buildings, a 20‐story concrete frame and a 42‐story concrete core wall building, are analyzed under comparable sets of simulated and recorded motions at increasing levels of ground motion intensity, up to structural collapse, to check for statistically significant differences between the responses to simulated and recorded motions. Spectral shape and significant duration are explicitly considered when selecting ground motions. Considered demands include story drift ratios, floor accelerations, and collapse response. These comparisons not only yield similar results in most cases but also reveal instances where certain simulated ground motions can result in biased responses. The source of bias is traced to differences in correlations of spectral values in some of the stochastic ground motion simulations. When the differences in correlations are removed, simulated and recorded motions yield comparable results. This study highlights the utility of physics‐based simulations, and particularly the Southern California Earthquake Center Broadband Platform as a useful tool for engineering applications.