Anticipatory logics of the smart city’s global imaginary

The smart city encompasses a broad range of technological innovations which might be applied to any city for a wide variety of reasons. In this article, I make a distinction between local efforts to reshape the urban landscape, and a global smart city imaginary which those efforts draw upon and help sustain. While attention has been given to the malleability of the smart city concept at this global scale, there remains little effort to interrogate the way that the future is used to sanction specific solutions. Through a critical engagement with smart city marketing materials, industry documents, and consultancy reports, I explore how the future is recruited, rearranged, and represented as a rationalization for technological intervention in the present. This is performed amidst three recurring crises: massive demographic shifts and subsequent resource pressures, global climate change, and the conflicting demands of fiscal austerity that motivate the desire of so many cities to attract foreign direct investment and highly skilled workers. In revealing how crises are pre-empted, precautioned, and prepared for, I argue that the smart city imaginary normalizes a style and scale of response deemed appropriate under liberal capitalism.     

地震灾害情景下产业空间网络风险评估——以日本丰田汽车为例

以日本东南海地震为情景,以日本丰田汽车及其关联企业为例,基于工厂个体数据及其部件供应的拓扑和空间网络,模拟灾害风险在产业网络中扩散转移过程,建立直接损失与间接功能损失的评估模型,为产业空间网络风险评估提供新的思路和方法借鉴。结果表明：在东南海地震情景下,丰田汽车约48.1%的工厂将直接受损,其中生产设施损失约5587亿日元,厂房建筑损失约1980亿日元。由于关键工厂受损,将间接导致整个产业网络中断。在最长37日恢复情景下,将造成约9230亿日元的间接功能损失。地震灾害对丰田汽车产业网络影响显著,有必要采取有效措施进行减灾降险。     

西南山地滑坡灾害生态风险评价——以大理白族自治州为例

本文以云南省大理白族自治州为例,综合考量生态风险源、受体、暴露响应过程及生态终点,采用信息量模型评估滑坡灾害危险性,基于景观格局指数表征生态脆弱性,并将生态系统服务纳入风险损失的定量表征,定量评估流域滑坡灾害生态风险。结果表明：① 低于1800 m高程、15°~25°坡度、小于0.31植被覆盖指数等10方面因素构成了诱发大理州滑坡灾害的最佳信息量组合,全州普遍处于滑坡灾害危险性中高水平,且西北低、东南高;② 生态脆弱性高值区主要集中在红河流域南部、金沙江流域东南部、澜沧江流域中部;③ 低生态损失流域的水源涵养、粮食供给服务相对较差,生态损失中等流域的净初级生产、土壤保持服务优势明显,高生态损失流域则具有较强的粮食供给和水源涵养服务;④ 基于高中低3种生态风险等级和“高危险—低脆弱—低损失”等8种风险结构,全州367个小流域可划分出避让监测预警区、生态保护恢复区、避让保护兼顾区、自然适应调控区等4种风险防范类型区。     

Characteristics Analysis and Risk Assessment of Extreme Water Levels Based on 60-Year Observation Data in Xiamen,China

Extreme water levels are related to astronomical tides and storm surges.Eleven typhoon systems,which have caused extreme water level rises,were selected based on 60-yr water level data from the Xiamen tide gauge station.In these 11 typhoon systems,the astronomical tide component accounts for 71%-95%of the total water level.The Gumbel distribution of extreme water level rise was estimated,and the impact of typhoon surges on water levels during the return period was analyzed.The ex-treme tide levels caused by typhoons Herb(1996)and Dujuan(2015)are much higher than those of other typhoons and correspond to the return period of 76 yr and 71 yr,respectively.The differences of sea levels in the presence and absence of these two typhoons in the 10-100 yr return period are 5.8-11.1 cm.For the 100-yr return period,the total risks within 10,25,50,and 100 yr increase by 94.3%,85.4%,72.9%,and 54.4%,respectively,if the Herb and Dujuan are not considered.Assuming that typhoon Herb(1996)occurred during the highest astronomical tide,it will produce a water level higher than that of the 1000-yr return period.Sea level rise has an important influence on the water level return period,and the contribution of nonlinear sea level rise in the next 100 yr is estimated to be 10.34%.     

Book Reviews

Books reviewed in this issue: Donahue, John M. and Johnston, Barbara Rose (eds.), Water, Culture, and Power: Local Struggles in a Global Context Kim, Joochul and Choe, Sang-Chuel, Seoul: The Making of a Metropolis Merrett, Stephen, Introduction to the Economics of Water Resources: An International Perspective Perry, Richard J., From Time Immemorial: Indigenous Peoples and State Systems Wilson, Edward O., Consilience: The Unity of Knowledge     

地震危险性分析中确定潜在震源的反思

在区域稳定性评价中,其主要内容之一就是地震稳定性评价。近年来,国内外多采用地震危险性分析的概率方法作为区域地震稳定性评价的主要方法。 在地震危险性分析中,首要问题是确定区域潜在震源,但至今尚缺乏完整、科学的理论和实践。作者认为有必要从地震地质角度进行一次深刻的地质反思。 本文从构造变形的动力源、区域及局部应力场、地震断裂活动带的地震重复周期,地震断裂的活动特征及区域地震强度衰减规律等几个方面提出了若干看法,作为地震危险性分析的基础地震地质工作加以考虑。至于常见的非发震断裂在区域地震稳定性评为中所起的作用,则需对这些断裂的地质特征与周围地质体的介质特征进行具体的对比分析,才能判定其对地震波传播的影响,不能一概而论。     

1961—2010年青海省霜冻灾害变化特征及风险区划

基于青海省历史日最低气温、青海省农作物种植总面积、农作物产量等要素,运用数理统计构建致灾因子危险性、暴露性和灾损敏感性指数,采用图表法和指数乘积法开展青海省霜冻灾害变化特征及风险区划。结果表明,青海省作物种植区均有霜冻灾害,中心集中在东部农业区的门源、大通、互助、湟源和湟中,柴达木盆地东部的德令哈、都兰和乌兰,以及贵南和共和等地;发生时段主要在4—9月,5月发生频率最高;年际间霜冻灾害呈波动增加趋势,但趋势不显著,年代际间霜冻灾害呈显著波动增加趋势;霜冻灾害高风险区主要分布在东北部的门源、互助、大通和祁连东部。     

Aquatic Ecological and Human Health Risk Assessment of Chemicals in Wet Weather Discharges in the Sydney Region, New South Wales, Australia

Sydney Water has completed a risk assessment to assess the risks to human health and aquatic organisms in creeks, rivers, estuaries and ocean waters affected by wet weather sewage overflows, stormwater and sewage treatment plant discharges. The risk assessment methodology consists of a comparison of measured and predicted concentrations of chemicals with toxicity reference values. Estimates of receiving water chemical concentrations were derived using data from a 10-year period so that the variable rainfall pattern was represented. Computer models were used to simulate and predict wet weather discharges during this ten year period. Risks were validated by bioassays and bioassessments. Risks to aquatic life from wet weather discharges were attributed to 14 chemicals at one or more of the sites and stormwater was the predominate source of the chemicals. There were no risks to people engaged in water based activities. Noncarcinogenic risks from fish ingestion are predicted at three sites. Predicted cancer risks for most individual chemicals were relatively small. Carcinogenic risks were typically associated with organochlorine compounds, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, dichlorobenzene, and arsenic. The predicted cancer risks also appear to be largely the result of stormwater rather than sewage overflow inputs and largely due to historical contamination by organochlorine pesticides. It is expected the concentrations of these chemicals will decrease over time.     

Bootstrapping: A Fast Way to Simulate QTz Curves

The aim of this paper is to present a fast method based on bootstrapping, for simulating recoverable reserves for input to financial Monte Carlo simulations. In mining, the three parameters defining recoverable reserves are the cutoff grade, z, the ore tonnage above cutoff, T, and the metal quantity above cutoff, Q. After introducing the concept of 3-dimensional QTz curves, the statistical technique called bootstrapping is reviewed and applied to a set of South African gold grades. As selective mining is carried out on blocks not points, these curves have to be calculated for blocks. The QTz curves obtained by bootstrapping are compared to those obtained by conditionally simulating the same deposit. The procedure has been extended to incorporate geologists' ideas of the likely size of the ore volume. Lastly, the recoverable reserves obtained by bootstrapping are compared with those obtained by traditional risk analysis (base case ± 10% or 20%).     

西秦岭北缘断裂带地震危险段的研究

通过对西秦岭北缘断裂带全新世活动,地震活动和现今排气活动等特征的分析研究,认为本断裂带东段是地震危险段,未来发生强震（Ｍｓ≥６）的机率最大。