全球气候变化中的人类活动视角:社会经济情景的演变

社会经济情景的设定是全球气候变化研究的基础,也是气候变化影响评估的关键环节.本文回顾了社会经济情景的发展过程,阐述了共享社会经济路径的主要特点和最新发展趋势,介绍了区域社会经济情景的构建及在灾害风险领域中的应用,最后对共享社会经济路径的发展进行了展望.     

基于层次分析法与频率比模型的采空塌陷危险性评价

采空塌陷危险性评价是编制地质灾害防治规划、开展地质灾害防治与监测预警工作的重要依据。本文采用层次分析法与频率比模型相结合构建了采空塌陷危险性评价模型（AHP-PF组合模型）。以沈阳市蒲河-清水矿区为例,考虑了地质条件、地表特征、开采条件等3方面影响因素,选取了第四纪覆盖类型、第四纪松散层厚度、地质构造复杂程度、可采煤层顶板强度指标、煤层倾角、地表沉陷速率、采深采厚比、采空区叠置层数等8个评价指标,利用AHP-PF组合模型计算各指标权重及频率比,最后进行采空塌陷危险性分区。评价结果表明,采空塌陷危险性高区主要集中在采深采厚比小、沉陷速率大及目前仍在开采的区域,该区域是地质灾害防治、搬迁避让的重点区域。     

Enhancing the value of adaptation reporting as a driver for action: lessons from the UK

ABSTRACT

As increasing evidence shows that the risks of climate change are mounting, there is a call for further climate action (both reducing global emissions, and adaptation to better manage the risks of climate change). To promote and enable adaptation, governments have introduced, or are considering introducing, reporting on climate risks and efforts being taken to address those risks. This paper reports on an analysis of the first two rounds of such reports submitted under the UK Climate Change Act (2008) Adaptation Reporting Power. It highlights benefits and challenges for reporting authorities and policymakers receiving the reports that could also inform other countries considering such reporting. For reporting authorities, benefits arise from the reporting process and resulting reports. These benefits include elevating climate risks and adaptation to the corporate level and with stakeholders, alongside facilitating alignment and integration of actions within existing risk management and governance structures. For policymakers, reporting provides enhanced understanding of climate risks and actions from a bottom-up perspective that can be integrated into national-level assessments and adaptation planning processes. The identified challenges are those related to capacity and process. These include limited risk and adaptation assessment capacities; relevance of climate change risks and adaptation in the context of other urgent risks and actions; reporting process effectiveness and robustness; and the provision of effective and sufficiently comprehensive support, including feedback.

Key policy insights

• Effective adaptation reporting needs to be designed and delivered so as to enhance the value of the reporting process and resulting reports both for those reporting and those receiving the reports, as well as from the broader policy perspective.

• Providing a positive and supportive reporting environment is critical to encourage participation and facilitating contiuous learning and improvement, while also facilitating delivery of policy-relevant adaptation reports.

• Contributions of adaptation reporting can be enhanced by an inclusive reporting requirement involving a broader organizational mix that enables more effective risk management and reporting that reflects associated (inter)dependencies and consistency with the more comprehensive post-2015 resilience agenda (Paris Agreement, Sendai Framework for DRR and UN Agenda 2030 SDGs).

     

Investment risk and return under renewable decarbonization of a power market

How does financial performance risk affect investments in low-carbon electricity-generating technologies to achieve climate policy targets? A detailed risk simulation of price formation in the Great Britain wholesale power market is used to show that the increasing replacement of fossil facilities with wind, ceteris paribus, may cause a deterioration of the financial risk–return performance metrics for incremental investments. Low-carbon investments appear to be high risk, low return, and as such may require a progressively higher level of support over time than envisaged by the conventional degression trajectories. The increasing riskiness of the wholesale market will to some extent offset the benefits of lower capital costs and operational efficiencies if investors need to satisfy cautious debt coverage ratios alongside positive expected returns. This increased risk is additional to the well-known ‘merit order effect’ of low-carbon investments progressively depressing wholesale prices and hence their expected investment returns.

Policy relevance

Policy support for renewable technologies such as wind is usually based upon levelized costs and is expected to reduce over time as capital costs and operational efficiencies improve. However, levelized costs do not take full account of the risk aversion that investors may have in practice. Expected policy support reductions may be moderated to some extent by the increased financial performance risk that intermittent technologies bring to the power market. The annual risk-return profiles for incremental investments deteriorate for all technologies as wind replaces fossil fuels. This extra risk premium will need to be incorporated into evaluating policy incentives for new investments in a decarbonizing power market.     

Analysis of the Space Debris Impacts Risk on the International Space Station

Öpik's analytical expressions relate in a simple way the semimajor axis, eccentricity and inclination of the projectile orbit to the magnitude and direction of the relative velocity vector at impact on a given target on circular orbit. These interesting quantities, along with the impact probability of any given projectile, can be all represented on a suitable projection giving a comprehensive picture of the impact risk on the selected target. By means of this theory a complete analysis of the impact risk on the International Space Station (ISS) is performed. It is found that the large majority of the debris population is on orbits such that a correlation exists between their impact velocity on the ISS and the angle between the velocity vector of the impactor and that of the ISS. The impactor population also is separated in terms of nature of the projectiles, with most of the low-medium velocity ones being particles related to solid rocket motor slag condensates. On the other hand, the highest velocity projectiles are composed mainly by fragments of past in-orbit explosions.The flux of projectiles on the ISS has been calculated for the planned operative lifetime of the Station, by assuming a realistic scenario of the future debris environment evolution and the actual planned altitude profile for the ISS mission. There is a factor 2-3 variation of the flux due to the changing ISS altitude. The most dangerous part of the mission appears to be the central one, when the ISS will orbit at about 450 km above the Earth.     

Knowledge based systems for risk assessment of the subsurface of contaminated sites

Computer-based risk evaluation methods are practical tools to compare automatically and evaluate contaminated sites. HYDRISK is an example of adequate knowledge-based systems: HYDRISK evaluates hydrogeological properties and chemical criteria relevant to contaminant transport with respect to the necessary remedial actions. It works at a high investigative level and enables geologists and engineers to draw differentiated conclusions for selecting remediation methods for the contaminated site. HYDRISK emphasizes space and time dependent aspects of the contaminant transport. It is supported by a geographic information system (GIS) to display the evaluation results. Some ideas on considering the spatiotemporal variability of relevant parameters by means of geostatistical methods and numerical models will be given.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Books reviewed in this article: Aerial Photography and Remote Sensing. Terrain Analysis and Remote Sensing . JOHN R. G. TOWNSHEND , ed. Environmental Data Use in Computer-assisted Data Handling Systems: The Results of a Survey of Applications in the Pacific Northwest States . KENNETH E. GORDON . Applied Land Use: A Spatial Approach . JOHN F. LOUNSBURY , LAWRENCE M. SOMMERS , AND EDWARD A. FERNALD , eds. The Second Battle of New Orleans: A History of the Vieux Carre Riverfront-Expressway Controversy . RICHARD O. BAUMBACH , JR. AND WILLIAM E. BORAH . Cultural Environmental Archaeology . MYRA SHACKLEY . The Immoral landscape: Female Prostitution in Western Societies . RICHARD SYMANSKI . life Among the Poor in Cairo . UNNI WIKAN , translated by Ann Henning. Women, Work and Property in Northwest India . URSULA SHARMA . The Domestication of Women: Discrimination in Developing Societies . BARBARA ROGERS Economic Optimization in Locational and Transport Analysis . A. G. WILSON , J. D. COELHO , S. M. MACGILL , H. C. W. L. WILLIAMS . New Tools for Economic Development: The Enterprise Zone, Development Bank, and RFC . GEORGE STERNLIEB AND DAVID LISTOKIN , eds. Regional Wage Inflation . R. L. MARTIN , ed. Finding A Place For Energy-Siting Coal Conversion Facilities . FRANK J. CALZONETTI WITH MARK S. ECKERT . Environmental Management, Resources, and Systems Environmentalism. Second Edition . T. O'RIORDAN . Countryside Conservation . BRYN GREEN . Medical Spatial Diffusion: An Historical Geography of Epidemics in an Island Community . A. D. CLIFF , P. HAGGETT , J. K. ORD , AND G. R. VERSEY . Philosophy and Geographic Thought Order and Skepticism: Human Geography and the Dialectic of Science . RICHARD SZYMANSKI AND JOHN A. AGNEW . Measurement of Subjective Phenomena . D. F. JOHNSTON , ed. Conceptions of Space in Social Thought: A Geographic Perspective . ROBERT DAVID SACK . The Association of American Geographers: The First Seventy-five Years: 1904-1979 . PRESTON E. JAMES AND GEOFFREY J. MARTIN . The Life and Thought of Isaiah Bowman . GEOFFREY J. MARTIN . Physical River Basin Planning: Theory and Practice . SURANJIT K. SAHA AND CHRISTOPHER J. BARROW , eds. Soils and landforms: An Integration of Ceomorphology and Pedology . A. I. GERRARD Climatic Change and Society. Consequences of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide . WILLIAM W. KELLOGG AND ROBERT SCHWARE . Political Political Redistrictings and Geographic Theory . RICHARD L. MORRILL . Population Studies in Spanish American Population History: Dell Plain Latin American Studies NO. 8 . DAVID J. ROBINSON , ed. Population Redistribution in the Midwest . CURTIS C. ROSEMAN , ANDREW J. SOFRANKO , AND JAMES D. WILLIAMS , eds. Geographical Perspectives on the Elderly . A. M. WARNES , ed. Regional Perspective On the American South . MERLE BLACK AND JOHN SHELTON REED , eds. The Prairies and Plains: Prospects for the 80s . JOHN R. ROGGE , ed. Rural Rural Settlement in an Urban World . MICHAEL BUNCE . Social Accident at Three Mile Island: The Human Dimensions . DAVID L. SILLS , C. P. WOLF , AND VIVIEN B. SHELANSKI , eds. The American Small Town: Twentieth-Century Place Images . JOHN JAKLE . Urban A House of My Own . SUSAN LOBO . The City: Patterns and Processes in the Urban Ecosystem . CHRISTOPHER H. EXLINE , GARY L. PETERS , AND ROBERT P. LARKIN . Movement in Cities . P. W. DANIELS AND A. M. WARNES . Urbanization and Urban Planning in Capitalist Society . MICHAEL DEAR AND ALLEN J. SCOT , eds.     

Organochlorines and dioxin-like compounds in green-lipped mussels Perna viridis from Hong Kong mariculture zones

Concentrations of persistent organic pollutants including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine (OC) pesticides and dioxin-like compounds were measured in green-lipped mussels, Perna viridis, collected from seven mariculture zones in Hong Kong between September and October in 2002 in order to evaluate the status, spatial distribution and potential sources of pollution in these areas. Concentrations ranged from 300 to 4400 ng/g lipid weight for total OCs and 170–1000 ng/g lipid weight for total PCBs (based on 28 congeners). Relatively smaller DDT concentrations in mussels compared with previous studies suggest reduced discharges of DDTs from nearby regions into Hong Kong waters. Detection of a mixture of HCH isomers in the mussels indicated that Hong Kong waters were predominantly contaminated by technical HCHs rather than lindane. Mussel samples from all sampling locations elicited significant dioxin-like activity in the H4IIE-luc bioassay. The greatest magnitude of dioxin-like response (39 pg TEQ/g wet wt.) was detected in mussels from Ma Wan in the western waters of Hong Kong, which is strongly influenced by the Pearl River discharge. Human health risk assessment was undertaken to evaluate potential risks associated with the consumption of the green-lipped mussels. Risk quotient (RQ) for dioxin-like compounds was greater than unity suggesting that adverse health effects may be associated with high mussel consumption.     

Mapping Disastrous Natural Hazards Using Global Datasets

The increased interest for categorising countries at risk calls for an improved methodology allowing comparison of natural hazard impacts at a global level. A disaster is the intersection between a hazardous event, the elements at risk (population, infrastructures) and their vulnerability. In order to associate reported impacts with affected elements and socio-economic or geophysical contextual parameters, geographical location and extent of hazards is needed. The scope of this paper is to present improved automated procedures for a rapid mapping of large disastrous hazard events (floods, earthquakes, cyclones and volcanoes) using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and available global datasets. Up to 82% of the events and 88% of the reported victims could be geo-referenced and the results highlight both the potentialities and limitations of the methods applied.     

Regional Considerations of Coastline Change,Tsunami Damage and Recovery along the Southern Coast of the Bay of Izmit (The Kocaeli (Turkey) Earthquake of 17 August 1999)

Co-seismic phenomena along the south coastline included liquefaction, subsidenceand tsunami. Construction on areas composed of fluvial and alluvial sediments aswell as unconsolidated fill increased the risk by creating potential for amplificationof seismic waves. Cyclic mobility liquefaction was common along the coastline, andlevel-ground liquefaction was observed. Flow liquefaction is held forth as a possibilityin the Deirmendere submarine landslide. Damage to structures was markedly more in areas of unconsolidated sediments. One or more tsunami struck immediately after the event; the uniformity of tsunami impact indicating a wave coming from 310° suggests that submarine faulting was the major source of tsunami. Over 800,000 m² of subsidence resulted from sediment slumping, fault controlled subsidence, and possibly post-liquefaction sediment compaction. After a brief period of post-event abandonment, reclamation and use of coastal areas is well underway. This creates a tension between human desires pushing for quick and inexpensive re-inhabitation of the coastal areas, and the needs for zoning and building codes for risk reduction. In this high-risk area suchcontrary cultural mandates cannot yield ideal results. It is suggested that an alternativemodel of immediate post-event creation of parks and natural areas that would yield benefit is preferable in coastal areas rather than the enforcement approach currently favored.