Effect of near-fault earthquake on bridges: lessons learned from Chi-Chi earthquake

The objective of this paper is to describe the lessons learned and actions that have been taken related to the seismic design of bridge structures after the Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake. Much variable near-fault ground motion data was collected from the rupture of Chelungpu fault during the Chi-Chi earthquake, allowing the seismic response of bridge structures subjected to these near-fault ground motions to be carefully examined. To study the near-fault ground motion effect on bridge seismic design codes, a two-level seismic design of bridge structures was developed and implemented. This design code reflects the near-fault factors in the seismic design forces. Finally, a risk assessment methodology, based on bridge vulnerability, is also developed to assist in decisions for reducing seismic risk due to failure of bridges. Director of Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering. Supported by: the Science Council, Chinese Taipei, under grant no. SC 90-2211-E-002-028.     

Modelling peak accelerations from earthquakes

This paper deals with the prediction of peak horizontal accelerations with emphasis on seismic risk and insurance concerns. Non‐linear mixed effects models are used to analyse well‐known earthquake data and the consequences of mis‐specifying assumptions on the error term are quantified. A robust fit of the usual model, using recently developed robust weighted maximum likelihood estimators, is presented. Outlying data are automatically identified and subsequently investigated. A more appropriate model accounting for the extreme value nature of the responses, is also developed and implemented. The implication on acceleration predictions is demonstrated. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improvement of Nakamura technique by singular spectrum analysis

In this work we investigate the application of the Singular Spectrum Analysis to improve Nakamura Technique. The SSA has a wide and multidisciplinary range of applications; it allows a time series to be decomposed into different components, e.g. the signal itself, as well as various noise components, which can be subsequently removed from the data. Removal of the minor component of the data can lead to significant improvements in the identification of the system. In this paper the use of SSA Technique allows to optimize the signal to noise ratio before computing the classical Nakamura spectral ratios. A number of typical applications are also presented.     

风险分析实践的感悟

考虑到我国水资源短缺、水灾害频发和水环境恶化的情势,在水利建设和管理中,突出风险意识是非常必要的和十分及时的。我们多年从事风险分析实践的感悟是：水利风险模拟分析完全不同于建筑结构物的可靠度计算,更不是模拟设计洪水的淹没范围和水深,其真谛是在于如实模拟出当地的水旱灾害的不确定性,是对传统思维模式的重大的突破。有些传统理念也有必要作调整,如：工程水文学科的内涵,可持续发展的不确定性和风险分析的风险。     

河北省冬麦区土壤水分监测预测系统及其应用

河北省冬小麦生育阶段正值少雨时期,一般年份只有在灌溉的情况下才能满足小麦生长发育的需求,麦区土壤水分实时监测预测对于灌溉决策十分重要。在冬小麦单站多层次土壤水分动态模型(VSMB模型)的基础上,根据河北省麦区从南到北冬小麦发育期和土壤类型的不同进行参数调整和修正,并对数据库进行设计,形成河北省整个冬麦区麦田土壤水分监测预测系统(RSM-MFS)。文中介绍了该系统的基本原理和功能,并对实际应用进行了效果分析。从近年在河北省冬麦区土壤水分的监测预测结果来看,监测相对误差在10%左右,风险预测相对误差在20%左右。     

电子信息系统雷灾风险评估方法

灾害是一种风险,防治灾害就是管理并降低或者消除风险。需要正确认识和评估风险,对于雷电灾害来说就是开展雷电灾害风险评估,进而实施合理的雷电防护。因此,雷击风险评估是防雷设计工作之前的最重要的环节,为了全面、具体实施全方位的雷电防护提供客观、准确、科学的依据,本文针对电子信息系统雷电灾害的特点,在详细分析各种灾害成因的基础上,通过理论计算,提出了对雷电灾害进行风险评估的方法。     

地震安全性评价数据的集中管理

本文分析了目前地震安全性评价数据管理的现状和数据集中管理的优势,提出了实现集中管理地震安全性评价数据的技术,以及数据安全防护措施。     

华北地区未来50年地震危险性与强震预测研究

本文对文献[1]、[2]的某些结论和结果作了认真的分析和讨论,提出了不同的观点。应用极值理论和b值方法对华北地震区未来50年的地震危险性和活动水平进行了分析,给出了各震级档次地震发生的概率预测。     

Discussion on Deep Tectonic Background of Moderately Strong Earthquake in Anhui Province and Its Neighboring Areas Using Results of Seismic Tomography

INTRODUCTIONThe studied areaislocated mostlyinthe southeastern part of the North Chinafault block provinceat 28°~39°N, 112°~124°E, where the geologic tectonics is complex with frequent historicalmoderate-strong earthquakes .The 3Dvelocity images derived fromseismic tomography have enrichedthe knowledge about the deep structures of the crust and the upper mantle ,and by combining thespatial distribution of seismicity patterns ,we canfurther studythe relations of velocitystructure toth…     

珠江口伶仃洋海底表层沉积物重金属污染及潜在生态危害评价

对珠江口伶仃洋海底表层沉积物中重金属的分布规律进行了研究，并利用瑞典科学家Lars Hakanson的潜在生态危害指数法对重金属的生态危害程度进行了评价。研究结果表明，珠江口伶仃洋西岸附近的海底表层沉积物的重金属含量大于伶仃洋东岸附近的海底表层沉积物的重金属含量，重金属Zn、Cu、Cr、Cd、As和Hg的含量总体上表现为由西北向东南逐渐减小。生态危害评价结果显示，研究区内除4个站位为生态危害中等外，其余47个站位为生态危害轻微，海底表层沉积物重金属的污染程度顺序为Cd〉Hg〉Cu〉As〉Pb〉Cr〉Zn．