地震危险性不确定性分析中专家意见的合理综合

首先回顾了不确定性分析中常用的专家意见综合方法。然后在此基础上,提出了一新的简便易行的综合方法,并利用实例计算比较了三种综合方法的结果差异。所提出的方法在地震危险性不确定性分析专家意见的合理综合中具有较为实用的价值。     

山西及其邻近地区地壳垂直形变与地震危险性分析

山西及其邻近地区地壳垂直形变出现的两升三降的分布格局,反映出现代构造块体活动在不断增强.通过地震活动和区域形变场分析,可以看出山西地区自50年代以来地震释放能量有不断加强趋势,区域形变出现了有规律的四象限分布.预计今后10年内本区若干危险点有可能成为地震能量大释放地区.     

Analysing Lava Risk for the Etnean Area: Simulation by Cellular Automata Methods

The model SCIARA, based on the Cellular Automata paradigm, is a versatile instrument whose scope is to analyse volcanic risk from lava flows.The possible fields of intervention are:[(a)] Long term forecasting of the flow direction at various eruption rates and points of emission by locating potential risk areas and permitting the creation of detailed maps of risk;[(b)] The possibility to follow the progress of an event and predict its evolution;[(c)] The verification of the possible effects of human intervention on real or simulated flows in stream deviation.A risk scenario has been developed for the Etnean territories of the towns of Nicolosi, Pedara and S. Alfio, simulating possible episodes with different vent locations along the fracture opened in the 1989 eruption and successively activated in the 1991–1993 eruption.The main characteristics of lava flows, that might be dangerous to the inhabited areas, have been analysed on the basis of the carried out Cellular Automata.     

Reply to Discussion of “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example”*

ABSTRACT

Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models – making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a “certified” scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as “pragmatic realists” in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.     

Exploring the role of risk perception in influencing flood losses over time

ABSTRACT

What implications do societies’ risk perceptions have for flood losses? This study uses a stylized, socio-hydrological model to simulate the mutual feedbacks between human societies and flood events. It integrates hydrological modelling with cultural theory and proposes four ideal types of society that reflect existing dominant risk perception and management: risk neglecting, risk monitoring, risk downplaying and risk controlling societies. We explore the consequent trajectories of flood risk generated by the interactions between floods and people for these ideal types of society over time. The results suggest that flood losses are substantially reduced when awareness-raising attitudes are promoted through inclusive, participatory approaches in the community. In contrast, societies that rely on top-down hierarchies and structural measures to protect settlements on floodplains may still suffer significant losses during extreme events. This study illustrates how predictions formed through social science theories can be applied and tested in hydrological modelling.     

Approaches to analyse and model changes in impacts: reply to discussions of “How to improve attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts”*

ABSTRACT

We thank the authors, Brunella Bonaccorso and Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen for their constructive contributions to the discussion about the attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts. We appreciate that they support our opinion, but in particular their additional new ideas on how to better understand changes in impacts. It is great that they challenge us to think a step further on how to foster the collection of long time series of data and how to use these to model and project changes. Here, we elaborate on the possibility to collect time series of data on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and impacts and how these could be used to improve e.g. socio-hydrological models for the development of future risk scenarios.     

首都圈及山西断陷带北部地壳垂直形变与地震危险性分析

根据首都圈地区及山西断陷带精密水准复测资料,分析了近十年来地壳垂直形变状态与特征。结果表明,研究区的东北区域表现为整体下降,下降速率约2～4mm／a;但“北升南降”的运动格局基本没有改变。太行山以西至山西断陷带的东侧地区为整体隆升。隆升速率最大近8mm／a。运动的时空分布从“南快北慢”整体上升的特征,逐步转变为“北升南降”的有升有降的特征。西区上述运动性质发生变化是以2001年为分界线,同时在延怀盆地及其附近区域形成了四象限分布的形变图像。但这一图像从规模和量级上都小于大同地震前的变形。山西断陷带北部的运动表现为断陷型的垂直运动,整体呈下降趋势,运动速率为4～6mm／a。上述特征表明监测区未来2～3年内发生6级以上地震的可能性不大。     

Application of matrix analysis in delineating sinkhole risk areas along highway (I-70 near Frederick,Maryland)

Sinkhole collapse in the area of Maryland Interstate 70 (I-70) and nearby roadways south of Frederick, Maryland, has been posing a threat to the safety of the highway operation as well as other structures. The occurrence of sinkholes is associated with intensive land development. However, the geological conditions that have been developing over the past 200 million years in the Frederick Valley control the locations of the sinkholes. Within an area of approximately 8 km², 138 sinkholes are recorded and their spatial distribution is irregular, but clustered. The clustering indicates the existence of an interaction between the sinkholes. The point pattern of sinkholes is considered to be a sample of a Gibbsian point process from which the hard-core Strauss Model is developed. The radius of influence is calculated for the recorded sinkholes which are most likely to occur within 30 m of an existing sinkhole. The stochastic analysis of the existing sinkholes is biased toward the areas with intensive land use. This bias is adjusted by considering (1) topography, (2) proximity to topographic depressions, (3) interpreted rock formation, (4) soil type, (5) geophysical anomalies, (6) proximity to geologic structures, and (7) thickness of overburden. Based on the properties of each factor, a scoring system is developed and the average relative risk score for individual 30-m segments of the study area is calculated. The areas designated by higher risk levels would have greater risk of a sinkhole collapse than the areas designated by lower risk levels. This risk assessment approach can be updated as more information becomes available.     

略阳县地质灾害发育特征及其危险性初步评价

根据野外实地调查,描述并总结了陕西省略阳县地质灾害的发育特征。依据地质灾害点目前的稳定状态和潜在危害程度,定性评价了区内各地质灾害点的危险性。并利用地质灾害的重现性,基于各地质灾害点的危险程度,综合区内的地形地貌、地质条件和人为因素、气象水文条件,对略阳县地质灾害危险性进行了分区,其结果可为当地的土地规划和防灾减灾提供依据。     

Effect of near-fault earthquake on bridges: lessons learned from Chi-Chi earthquake

The objective of this paper is to describe the lessons learned and actions that have been taken related to the seismic design of bridge structures after the Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake. Much variable near-fault ground motion data was collected from the rupture of Chelungpu fault during the Chi-Chi earthquake, allowing the seismic response of bridge structures subjected to these near-fault ground motions to be carefully examined. To study the near-fault ground motion effect on bridge seismic design codes, a two-level seismic design of bridge structures was developed and implemented. This design code reflects the near-fault factors in the seismic design forces. Finally, a risk assessment methodology, based on bridge vulnerability, is also developed to assist in decisions for reducing seismic risk due to failure of bridges. Director of Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering. Supported by: the Science Council, Chinese Taipei, under grant no. SC 90-2211-E-002-028.