临汾地震安全性评价的极值理论方法

本文根据极值理论建立了烈度超越给定值Ｉｊ的平均重现期公式，根据最大熵原理建立了未来Ｔ年烈度超越给定值Ｉｊ的概率和烈度超越给定值Ｉｊ的平均重现期之间的关系式。利用１０２２─１９９３年的地震资料，计算了临汾（３６．１０°Ｎ，１１１．５０°Ｅ）周围４级以上地震在临汾造成的烈度，绘制了未来１００年临汾的烈度超越概率曲线（地震危险性曲线）。结果表明，计算场地烈度的极值理论方法可作为地震危险性分析的综合概率法的补充和验证。     

巴基斯坦卡拉奇─海得拉巴区域地震危险性预测

本文讨论了巴基斯坦的地震构造，潜在震源和历史与现代地震活动性，并在此基础上使用确定性和概率性两种方法计算了各发震断层５０年内最大可能的地震在卡拉奇和海得拉巴两城市将引起的地面峰值加速度以及５０年内超越概率为１４％的等加速度区划图。     

东北地区地震危险趋势分析

利用丰富的震史资料，研究了日本海沟、日本海深震与中国东北浅震的时空特征。根据深震、浅震的相关活动特点，我们对东北浅震危险趋势进行了分析。     

华北北部地区2005年前地震危险性预测研究进展

综述了利用确定性和概率性相结合的预测方法，对华北北部地区２００５年前的地震危险性进行了概率预测研究。研究表明，该区在２００年前发生６级以上地震的概率为０．４５，其中涿鹿－怀来一带地区内每个计算单元中的发展概率最高，达到０．０２。     

东昆仑活动断裂带东段古地震活动特征

东昆仑活动断裂托索湖——玛曲以东肯定那一带， 可据阿尼玛卿玛积峰为界再分为花石峡段和玛沁段两个在几何上不连续的段落. 两段在表征断层全新世活动特征的古地震事件方面有明显差异， 花石峡段的地震活动性明显高于玛沁段的地震活动性. 古地震研究表明， 花石峡段上3次强震活动相邻两次地震发生的时间间隔分别约为500 a和640 a， 玛沁段上最近两次古地震事件间大致有1 000 a左右的时间间隔. 根据断层平均滑动速率计算的花石峡段7.5级地震的平均复发间隔为411~608 a， 相对应的同震平均水平位错约为（5.75plusmn;0.57）m. 虽然玛沁段的地震活动性较弱， 但由于该段上最近一次地震事件离现在较为久远， 已经积累的应变能应该使我们对其未来地震危险性的分析有足够重视.      

Morphology, niche segregation, and escape tactics in a sand dune lizard community

We examined patterns of co-existence for three species of scincid lizards (Sphenops sepsoides, Scincus scincus, and Chalcides ocellatus) in the simple sand dune habitat of North Sinai, Egypt. We first examined the morphological differences among the three species and compared their niche use and escape tactics in the context of their morphologies. Our results suggests that natural selection has favored two different phenotypes, Scincus scincus's long limbs with toe fringes and Sphenops sepspoides's extremely reduced limbs for sand locomotion. These two sand specialists, Sphenops sepsoides and Scincus scincus, shared microhabitats such as soft substrate and occurred further away from vegetation but showed strong separation in the surface temperatures at which they were active. The generalist species, C. ocellatus which lacked toe fringes and had relatively short limbs that were not reduced enough for fossorial movement, was found closer to vegetation and on harder substrates where such traits may be beneficial. Escape tactics may further strengthen habitat partitioning between desert generalists and sand specialists as C. ocellatus sprint to vegetation to escape predators whereas both sand specialists dive into the sand. Our results suggest that traditional ideas about predation risk may not apply to sand diving lizards as they may be able to venture far from vegetation refuges without increased vulnerability to predation.     

Urban Seismic Risk Evaluation: A Holistic Approach

Risk has been defined, for management purposes, as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences of hazardous events that may occur in a specified period of time. However, in the past, the concept of risk has been defined in a fragmentary way in many cases, according to each scientific discipline involved in its appraisal. From the perspective of this article, risk requires a multidisciplinary evaluation that takes into account not only the expected physical damage, the number and type of casualties or economic losses, but also the conditions related to social fragility and lack of resilience conditions, which favour the second order effects (indirect effects) when a hazard event strikes an urban centre. The proposed general method of urban risk evaluation is multi hazard and holistic, that is, an integrated and comprehensive approach to guide decision-making. The evaluation of the potential physical damage (hard approach) as the result of the convolution of hazard and physical vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure is the first step of this method. Subsequently, a set of social context conditions that aggravate the physical effects are also considered (soft approach). In the method here proposed, the holistic risk evaluation is based on urban risk indicators. According to this procedure, a physical risk index is obtained, for each unit of analysis, from existing loss scenarios, whereas the total risk index is obtained by factoring the former index by an impact factor or aggravating coefficient, based on variables associated with the socio-economic conditions of each unit of analysis. Finally, the proposed method is applied in its single hazard form to the holistic seismic risk evaluation for the cities of Bogota (Colombia) and Barcelona (Spain).     

Aspiration and reality: flood policy, economic damages and the appraisal process

Research shows that flood damage potential has increased significantly in the last 15 years. At the same time, flood policy has shifted away from simplistic flood defence towards 'living with floods' and 'making space for water'. This paper explores the mis-match between the aspiration in policy ideals, the reality of rising potential economic damages and the inability of the flood risk appraisal process to match the aspiration with the reality. Unless investment appraisal procedures are changed, the increase in damages will undermine policy changes that seek a different pattern of flood risk management, away from economically dominated decision-criteria towards more sustainable objectives.     

Using radar direct wave for concrete condition assessment: Correlation with electrical resistivity

This paper demonstrates that the direct wave of a radar ground-coupled antenna may be used for the nondestructive assessment of the physical condition of concrete, which directly influences the corrosion of the reinforcing bars in the structure. The validity of this method was evaluated by a comparison with the electrical resistivity method, which is frequently used for the evaluation of corrosion probability. Both methods were implemented in the laboratory on 72 concrete samples (25 × 25 × 8 cm³) with various degrees of saturation and chloride contamination levels. On-site investigations were also carried out on the concrete slab (1080 m²) of a car-park.The results of the laboratory tests show that the radar direct signal is strongly affected by variations in concrete moisture and chloride contamination level. The tests performed in real conditions confirm the good correlation between radar direct wave attenuation and electrical resistivity and, thus, the aptitude of the radar direct wave to detect concrete conditions leading to reinforcement corrosion.     

A simplified approach for vulnerability assessment in moderate-to-low seismic hazard regions: application to Grenoble (France)

Due to the moderate seismic risks in France, the building vulnerability assessment methods developed for high seismic risk countries could not easily be used here because of their cost and the low-risk perception among the public and officials. A light vulnerability assessment method is proposed and tested in Grenoble (France), based on classes and scores provided in the GNDT method but simplified in terms of visual screening and number of structural parameters used. Compared to the RiskUE method, the damage obtained by our approach shows that 90% of buildings have residuals smaller than 0.2, i.e. one grade of the EMS98 damage scale. A large scale survey is devised and conducted among the inhabitants of Grenoble in order to collect the main structural parameters. By comparing the results from the survey to the historical urbanization of Grenoble and to expert surveys performed in two urban districts, the information useful for the light method of vulnerability assessment can be rapidly collected by non-experts reducing substantially the estimate cost. The average damage is then computed using the GNDT formula considering the probable intensities which could be observed in Grenoble (VII and VIII). The average damage reaches 0.4 in the oldest part of Grenoble mainly made of masonry buildings and 0.2 in reinforced concrete suburbs where reinforced concrete predominates. The results are a relative vulnerability assessment that provides useful initial information for the urban zones of Grenoble where the vulnerability is higher. This method can be used to classify the seismic vulnerability in wide seismic-prone regions to a fair degree of accuracy and at low cost.