Variations of 14C around AD 775 and AD 1795 – due to solar activity

The motivation for our study is the disputed cause for the strong variation of ¹⁴C around AD 775. Our method is to compare the ¹⁴C variation around AD 775 with other periods of strong variability. Our results are: (a) We see three periods, where 14C varied over 200 yr in a special way showing a certain pattern of strong secular variation: after a Grand Minimum with strongly increasing ¹⁴C, there is a series of strong short‐term drop(s), rise(s), and again drop(s) within 60 yr, ending up to 200 yr after the start of the Grand Minimum. These three periods include the strong rises around BC 671, AD 775, and AD 1795. (b) We show with several solar activity proxies (radioisotopes, sunspots, and aurorae) for the AD 770s and 1790s that such intense rapid ¹⁴C increases can be explained by strong rapid decreases in solar activity and, hence, wind, so that the decrease in solar modulation potential leads to an increase in radioisotope production. (c) The strong rises around AD 775 and 1795 are due to three effects, (i) very strong activity in the previous cycles (i.e. very low ¹⁴C level), (ii) the declining phase of a very strong Schwabe cycle, and (iii) a phase of very weak activity after the strong ¹⁴C rise – very short and/or weak cycle(s) like the suddenly starting Dalton minimum. (d) Furthermore, we can show that the strong change at AD 1795 happened after a pair of two packages of four Schwabe cycles with certain hemispheric leadership (each package consists of two Gnevyshev‐Ohl pairs, respectively two Hale‐Babcock pairs). We show with several additional arguments that the rise around AD 775 was not that special. We conclude that such large, short‐term rises in ¹⁴C (around BC 671, AD 775, and 1795) do not need to be explained by highly unlikely solar super‐flares nor other rare events, but by extra‐solar cosmic rays modulated due to solar activity variations. (© 2015 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Solar activity around AD 775 from aurorae and radiocarbon

A large variation in ¹⁴C around AD 775 has been considered to be caused by one or more solar super‐flares within one year. We critically review all known aurora reports from Europe as well as the Near, Middle, and Far East from AD 731 to 825 and find 39 likely true aurorae plus four more potential aurorae and 24 other reports about halos, meteors, thunderstorms etc., which were previously misinterpreted as aurorae or misdated; we assign probabilities for all events according to five aurora criteria. We find very likely true aurorae in AD 743, 745, 762, 765, 772, 773, 793, 796, 807, and 817. There were two aurorae in the early 770s observed near Amida (now Diyarbakır in Turkey near the Turkish‐Syrian border), which were not only red, but also green‐yellow – being at a relatively low geomagnetic latitude, they indicate a relatively strong solar storm. However, it cannot be argued that those aurorae (geomagnetic latitude 43 to 50°, considering five different reconstructions of the geomagnetic pole) could be connected to one or more solar super‐flares causing the ¹⁴C increase around AD 775: There are several reports about low‐ to mid‐latitude aurorae at 32 to 44° geomagnetic latitude in China and Iraq; some of them were likely observed (quasi‐)simultaneously in two of three areas (Europe, Byzantium/Arabia, East Asia), one lasted several nights, and some indicate a particularly strong geomagnetic storm (red colour and dynamics), namely in AD 745, 762, 793, 807, and 817 – always without ¹⁴C peaks. We use 39 likely true aurorae as well as historic reports about sunspots together with the radiocarbon content from tree rings to reconstruct the solar activity: From AD ∼733 to ∼823, we see at least nine Schwabe cycles; instead of one of those cycles, there could be two short, weak cycles – reflecting the rapid increase to a high ¹⁴C level since AD 775, which lies at the end of a strong cycle. In order to show the end of the dearth of naked‐eye sunspots, we discuss two more Schwabe cycles until AD ∼844. The ¹⁴C record (from both Intcal and Miyake et al. 2013a) is anti‐correlated to auroral and sunspot activity, as expected from solar wind modulation of cosmic rays which produce the radiocarbon. (© 2015 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

中国水文发展历程概述(Ⅱ)

根据几十年来水文工作的经历以及相关资料,就历史阶段、建设阶段和发展阶段的中国水文发展历程进行概述。重点介绍了改革开放以来在水文站网建设、水文测报、水情报汛、水质监测、科技创新等方面取得的成就,回顾了在水文事业发展过程中的一些重大历史事件,并总结了历史的经验和教训。     

海洋能发电装置的防腐技术概述

防腐蚀是海洋能开发利用过程中急需解决的关键技术之一.文中分析研究了海洋能发电装置的腐蚀因素、腐蚀环境以及存在的腐蚀类型,总结了提高防腐蚀的措施,提出了规范化海洋能发电装置防腐蚀的建议.     

MYTHOLOGIES OF THE GRID IN THE EMPIRE CITY, 1811–2011*

In this article, I examine the performative dimensions of historical narration as a form of modern mythmaking by reconsidering conventional narratives on the “origins” of Manhattan's grid street plan of 1811. The historical mythology of the grid espoused in canonical readings of the Plan of 1811 relies extensively on a rearticulation of the official explanation that the grid's designers provided in a foundational text known as the “Commissioners’ Remarks”. I argue that such accounts result in an extraordinarily narrow and formulaic interpretation of the utilitarian motives and intentions behind the city's grid plan, one that reinforces a form of “morphological essentialism”. To support this argument, I shift the focus of attention beyond the “Commissioners’ Remarks” in order to complicate readings of the intentionality that gave rise to the 1811 street plan. I conclude by suggesting that the mythic search for the “origins” of the grid in the realm of founding intentions can most effectively be challenged by drawing attention to the proliferation of countermyths of gridded space.     

N-策略精益生产排队模型分析与设计

研究了精益生产环境下，生产线可能发生故障的单服务台N-策略M／M／I随机服务服务系统，利用概率母函数给出了模型的各项稳态指标；设计了预期费用函数，利用函数求解出当预期费用最少时的最优N-策略；并对模型进行了数值模拟。     

Observational Accuracy of Sunrise and Sunset Times in the Sixth Century China

The Daye Calendar was compiled in AD 597 in the Sui Dynasty. We investigate the records of sunrise and sunset times on the 24 solar-term days in the calendar. By converting the ancient Chinese time units, Chen, Ke and Fen to hour, minute and second, and carrying out a comparison between the ancient records and values computed with modern astronomical theory, we find that the accuracy of solar measurements in the Sui period is remarkably high: for sunrise times, the average absolute deviation is 3.63 min (this value can be further reduced to 3.03 min when erroneous data are excluded), and for sunset times it is 3.48 min. We also find that the observed sunrise and sunset times are strictly symmetrically distributed with respect to both the Winter Solstice and the Summer Solstice, with their deviations showing a similar symmetrical distribution as well. We give a discussion on the date of observation, the feature of the data, and possible reasons of the deviation.     

The research of Polar sea ice and its role in climate change

As an important part of global climate system, the Polar sea ice is effccting on global climate changes through ocean surface radiation balance, mass balance, energy balance as well as the circulating of sea water temperature and salinity. Sea ice research has a centuries - old history. The many correlative sea ice projects were established through the extensive international cooperation during the period from the primary research of intensity and the boaring capacity of sea ice to the development of sea/ice/air coupled model. Based on these reseamhes, the sea ice variety was combined with the global climate change. All research about sea ice includes： the physical properties and processes of sea ice and its snow cover, the ecosystem of sea ice regions, sea ice and upper snow albedo, mass balance of sea ice regions, sea ice and climate coupled model. The simulation suggests that the both of the area and volume of polar sea ice would be reduced in next century. With the developing of the sea ice research, more scientific issues are mentioned. Such as the interaction between sea ice and the other factors of global climate system, the seasonal and regional distribution of polar sea ice thickness, polar sea ice boundary and area variety trends, the growth and melt as well as their influencing factors, the role of the polynya and the sea/air interactions. We should give the best solutions to all of the issues in future sea ice studying.     

Vegetation and climate variability during the Last Interglacial evidenced in the pollen record from Lake Baikal

A pollen record from the core sediments collected in the northern part of Lake Baikal represents the latest stage of the Taz (Saale) Glaciation, Kazantsevo (Eemian) Interglacial (namely the Last Interglacial), and the earliest stage of the Zyryanka (Weichselian) Glaciation. According to the palaeomagnetic-based age model applied to the core, the Last Interglacial in the Lake Baikal record lasted about 10.6 ky from 128 to 117.4 ky BP, being more or less synchronous with the Marine Isotope Stage 5e. The reconstructed changes in the south Siberian vegetation and climate are summarised as follows: a major spread of shrub alder (Alnus fruticosa) and shrub birches (Betula sect. Nanae/Fruticosae) in the study area was a characteristic feature during the late glacial phase of the Taz Glaciation. Boreal trees e.g. spruce (Picea obovata) and birch (Betula sect. Albae) started to play an important role in the regional vegetation with the onset of the interglacial conditions. Optimal conditions for Abies sibirica–P. obovata taiga development occurred ca. 126.3 ky BP. The maximum spread of birch forest-steppe communities took place at the low altitudes ca. 126.5–125.5 ky BP and Pinus sylvestris started to form forests in the northern Baikal area after ca. 124.4 ky BP. Re-expansion of the steppe communities, as well as shrubby alder and willow communities and the disappearance of forest vegetation occurred at about 117.4 ky BP, suggesting the end of the interglacial succession. The changes in the pollen assemblages recorded in the sediments from northern Baikal point to a certain instability of the interglacial climate. Three phases of climate deterioration have been distinguished: 126–125.5, 121.5–120, and 119.5–119 ky BP. The penultimate cooling signal may be correlated with the cool oscillation recorded in European pollen records. However, such far distant correlation requires more careful investigation.     

Late Glacial and Holocene vegetation history in the southern part of Transylvania (Romania): pollen analysis of two sequences from Avrig

We present here the results of pollen analysis of two sequences of about 8.06 m and 11.90 m length, originating from two adjacent peat bogs in the southern part of Transylvania province, Romania (155 and 122 pollen spectra). The vegetation record, which is supported by 17 ¹⁴C dates, begins in the Late Glacial interstadial when forest recolonisation began with the development of Pinus, without a pioneer Betula phase. Picea began to expand from regional refuges. After a well‐defined Younger Dryas, the Holocene opens with the expansion of Betula, Ulmus and Picea, followed, at about 10 400 cal. yr BP, by Fraxinus, Quercus and Tilia. The Corylus optimum is correlated with the Atlantic chronozone (after 8600 cal. yr BP). The local establishment of Carpinus occurred at about 6500 cal. yr BP, with a maximum at about 5700 cal. yr BP. Fagus pollen is regularly recorded after 8200 cal. yr BP. This taxon became dominant at about 3700 cal. yr BP. The first indications of human activities appear at around 7200 cal. yr BP. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.