地幔平衡部分熔融和岩浆分离结晶成因岩浆岩的判别

本文在讨论Ⅰ型（地幔平衡部分熔融成因）和Ⅱ型（岩浆分离结晶成因）岩浆岩元素丰度关系公式的基础上，建立了Ⅰ型和Ⅱ型岩浆岩系成因判别公式及判别法则。     

SEDIMENT TRANSPORT OF LOW CONCENTRATION IN PIPES

The study of Sediment transport of low concentration in pipes bas been applied in the design of a self-cleansing storm sewer. An alternative criterion is suggested as op- posed to the widely used single flow velocity approach. A conceptual model which simu- lates the condition in a storm sewer is developed and tested against experimental data. The results proved that the volumetric sediment concentration, pipe diameter and sedi- ment size have to be taken into consideration to produce a self-cleansing storm sewer. It also shows that the slope obtained by this alternative criterion is lower than the single flow velocity approach.     

Fitting variogram models by weighted least squares

The method of weighted least squares is shown to be an appropriate way of fitting variogram models. The weighting scheme automatically gives most weight to early lags and down-weights those lags with a small number of pairs. Although weights are derived assuming the data are Gaussian (normal), they are shown to be still appropriate in the setting where data are a (smooth) transform of the Gaussian case. The method of (iterated) generalized least squares, which takes into account correlation between variogram estimators at different lags, offer more statistical efficiency at the price of more complexity. Weighted least squares for the robust estimator, based on square root differences, is less of a compromise.     

Karst Collapse Mechanism and Criterion for Its Stability

Karst collapse, caused by natural or artificial abstraction of groundwater, has been a focus of environmentalgeological problems for its ever-increasing hazardousness. The potential erosion theory and vacuum suction erosion theory, which reveal the origin of karst collapse macroscopically, are popularly accepted. However, a mathematic prediction criterion for karst collapse cannot be established only by these two theories. From a new perspective, this paper attempts to explain the microcosmic mechanism of karst collapse on the basis of these two theories. When the shear stress surpasses the shear strength of soil, a certain point or a certain plane in the unconsolidated soil covering karst caves will fail under the mechanical effects of water and air as well as its load-pressure, and with the increase of damaged points, a breaking plane appears and the soil on karst caves is completely damaged; as a result, the karst ground collapses. On the basis of the Mohr-Coulomb failure theory and previous studies,     

监测网优化设计的必要性及内容

本文详细分析了监测网优化设计的必要性，并针对监测网的特点，叙述了监测网设计的有关问题。     

Generalized cross-validation for covariance model selection

A weighted cross-validation technique known in the spline literature as generalized cross-validation (GCV), is proposed for covariance model selection and parameter estimation. Weights for prediction errors are selected to give more importance to a cluster of points than isolated points. Clustered points are estimated better by their neighbors and are more sensitive to model parameters. This rational weighting scheme also provides a simplifying significantly the computation of the cross-validation mean square error of prediction. With small- to medium-size datasets, GCV is performed in a global neighborhood. Optimization of usual isotropic models requires only a small number of matrix inversions. A small dataset and a simulation are used to compare performances of GCV to ordinary cross-validation (OCV) and least-squares filling (LS).     

Short Term and Short Range Seismicity Patterns in Different Seismic Areas of the World

The aim of this work is to quantitatively set up a simple hypothesis for occurrence of earthquakes conditioned by prior events, on the basis of a previously existing model and the use of recent instrumental observations. A simple procedure is presented in order to determine the conditional probability of pairs of events (foreshock-mainshock, mainshock-aftershock) with short time and space separation. The first event of a pair should not be an aftershock, i.e., it must not be related to a stronger previous event. The Italian earthquake catalog of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica (ING) (1975–1995, M 3.4), the earthquake catalog of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) (1983–1994, M 3.0) and that of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) (1982–1994, M 3.8) were analyzed. The number of observed pairs depends on several parameters: the size of the space-time quiescence volume defining nonaftershocks, the inter event time, the minimum magnitude of the two events, and the spatial dimension of the alarm volume after the first event. The Akaike information criterion has been adopted to assess the optimum set of space-time parameters used in the definition of the pairs, assuming that the occurrence rate of subsequent events may be modeled by two Poisson processes with different rates: the higher rate refers to the space-time volume defined by the alarms and the lower one simulates earthquakes that occur in the nonalarm space-time volume. On the basis of the tests carried out on the seismic catalog of Italy, the occurrence rate of M 3.8 earthquakes followed by a M 3.8 mainshock within 10 km and 10 days (validity) is 0.459. We have observed, for all three catalogs, that the occurrence rate density for the second event of a couple (mainshock or aftershock) of magnitude M₂ subsequent to a nonaftershock of magnitude M₁ in the time range T can be modeled by the following relationship: (T, M₂) = 10^{a + b(M1 - M2)} with b varying from 0.74 (Japan) to 1.09 (Greece). The decrease of the occurrence rate in time for a mainshock after a foreshock or for large aftershocks after a mainshock, for all three databases, obeys the Omori's law with p changing from 0.94 (Italy) to 2.0 (Greece).     

基于抗震性态的设防标准研究

以基于性态的抗震设计为出发点,并以我国为例,针对目前国内外抗震设防标准的若干问题和不足,提出了基于性态抗震设计的三环节抗震设防方法．将现有的设防内容改为确定结构的抗震设计类别、确定设计烈度或设计地震动参数、确定建筑的重要性等级３个方面,并分别在每一方面进行具体深入的研究,从而形成了一套完整的基于性态的抗震设防标准确定的原则、方法和框架,可以直接用来编制规范供抗震设计使用．