梯级水库设计洪水最可能地区组成法计算通式

利用Copula函数建立各分区洪水的联合分布,基于联合概率密度最大原则,推导得到最可能地区组成法的计算通式,并用来推求梯级水库下游断面的设计洪水。选择清江流域水布垭-隔河岩-高坝洲梯级水库为例,开展了验证和方法比较研究。结果表明:最可能地区组成法计算得到的设计洪水值位于同频率地区组成法多方案计算结果的区间之内;受清江梯级水库调洪的影响,宜都断面设计洪水的削峰率十分显著,最可能地区组成法推求100年一遇设计洪水的削峰率达到30.2%。该法具有较强的统计基础,组成方案唯一,结果合理可行,为复杂梯级水库设计洪水的计算提供了一种新途径。     

广西某铅锌矿区水文地质及地下水重金属污染途径分析

文章在对广西某铅锌矿矿区水文地质条件分析的基础上,采用连通试验对地下水动态特征及其影响因素进行分析评价。实验结果表明,矿山区域地下水流经地下巷道携带大量重金属离子由废旧矿洞口排出地表,地表水流经地表废旧矿渣堆场携带大量污染物和矿洞水汇成溪沟,然后以地表径流方式污染长屯的土壤和水系,最终由长屯南伏流入口汇入洞零水库。尾矿库区域地下水通过地下岩溶管道和溶蚀裂隙向长屯洼地径流,经长屯南伏流入口,汇入洞零水库。     

基于广义回归神经网络的全球表层海水1°×1°二氧化碳分压数据推演

表层海水二氧化碳分压是评估海洋碳源汇强度的关键参数,但其实测数据较少、时空分布极不均匀,导致二氧化碳交换通量的估算有很大的不确定性,海洋源汇特征就不能确切获取。为了解决这个难题,在收集的表层大洋二氧化碳地图(Surface Ocean CO₂ Atlas,SOCAT)实测数据集基础上,运用广义回归神经网络建立二氧化碳分压与经纬度、时间、温度、盐度和叶绿素浓度间的非线性关系,构建了1998-2018年间全球1°×1°经纬度的表层海水二氧化碳分压格点数据,其标准误差为16.93μatm,平均相对误差为2.97%,优于现有研究中的前反馈神经网络、自组织映射神经网络和机器学习算法等方法。根据构建的数据所绘制的全球表层海水二氧化碳分压的分布与现有研究有较好的一致性。     

东亚地区春冬季与夏季大气环流异常相互关系的研究

利用1951~2000年共50年的北半球500 hPa月平均高度距平场资料和奇异值分解技术（SVD）,重点对东亚地区季节间大气环流异常的相互关系进行了初步探讨。结果表明,东亚地区季节间大气环流异常存在着较为密切的关联,并且这种明显的非同步联系具有时空相关显著的特点,尤其是夏季大气环流异常与其前冬和前春大气环流异常的联系更为密切。当前冬和前春北半球东亚大槽和北美大槽及蒙古高压偏强（或偏弱）,极涡偏弱（或偏强）,中高纬度盛行经向环流（或纬向环流）,以及低纬和热带地区高度正距平（或负距平）明显时,则对应于夏季东亚地区西太平洋副高和鄂霍次克海阻高强度偏强（或偏弱）,位置偏南（或偏北）,贝加尔湖阻高强度也偏强（或偏弱）,但位置偏西（或偏东）的大尺度环流形势出现。当春季北半球大气环流具有上述特点以及夏季鄂霍次克海阻高和西太平洋副高强度偏强（或偏弱）,位置偏南（或偏北）,且极涡较弱（较强）时,则东亚地区秋季大气环流对应于蒙古高压加强（或较弱）,西太平洋副高减弱（或加强）,并向南和向东移动（或移动较慢）,极涡向南扩散（或扩散减弱）,大气环流向冬季过渡加快（或减慢）。另外,大气环流异常还具有一定的持续性特征。     

彬长矿区水文地质特征及其对煤层气的控制作用

对彬长矿区水文地质特征进行了详细的论述,结合煤层实测含气性特征,探讨了水文地质条件对该区煤层气成藏的控制作用。研究表明:研究区构造简单,延安组煤系含水层与其他含水层不具明显水力联系,有利于煤层气富集成藏,同时使得煤系含水层地下水补给只能来源于区外侧向径流补给;矿区划分为3个水动力强弱不同的区域:侧向径流补给区、弱径流区和相对滞流区,其中位于矿区东南部的相对滞流区,也是水势低洼带煤层气汇集区,有利于煤层的富集成藏。同时,东南部煤层的含气量最高,说明该区水文地质条件确实对煤层气成藏起着关键作用。     

郑庄区块煤层气赋存特征及控气地质因素

沁水盆地南部郑庄区块煤层气资源条件良好,勘探开发潜力大。通过对郑庄区块煤层气地质条件和储层条件的深入分析,认为本区煤层气赋存条件良好,含气量较高,储层吸附/解吸能力较好,但储层渗透率相对较低;郑庄区块煤层气藏主要受3类地质因素控制：构造对煤层气含量和赋存规律具有明显的控制作用;水文地质条件对煤层气具明显的水力封闭作用,该区地下水径流较弱,为典型的等势面扇状缓流型,有利于区块内煤层气的富集;燕山晚期岩浆活动和高异常地热场对煤层热演化和煤层气生成有显著的控制作用。     

Three dimensional numerical simulation of residential building on shrink–swell soils in response to climatic conditions

Shrink–swell soils can cause distresses in buildings, and every year, the economic loss associated with this problem is huge. This paper presents a comprehensive system for simulating the soil–foundation–building system and its response to daily weather conditions. Weather data include rainfall, solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed, all of which are readily available from a local weather station or the Internet. These data are used to determine simulation flux boundary conditions. Different methods are proposed to simulate different boundary conditions: bare soil, trees, and vegetation. A coupled hydro‐mechanical stress analysis is used to simulate the volume change of shrink–swell soils due to both mechanical stress and water content variations. Coupled hydro‐mechanical stress‐jointed elements are used to simulate the interaction between the soil and the slab, and general shell elements are used to simulate structural behavior. All the models are combined into one finite element program to predict the entire system's behavior. This paper first described the theory for the simulations. A site in Arlington, Texas, is then selected to demonstrate the application of the proposed system. Simulation results are shown, and a comparison between measured and predicted movements for four footings in Arlington, Texas, over a 2‐year period is presented. Finally, a three‐dimensional simulation is made for a virtual residential building on shrink–swell soils to identify the influence of various factors. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

不动产统一登记信息平台建设探讨

不动产统一登记信息平台的建立是不动产统一登记工作实现信息实时更新和共享的基础。以构建不动产统一登记信息平台为主线,提出了以土地为核心的不动产单元构建方法,构建了以不动产单元为基础的不动产权利登记体系,分析了不动产登记业务与不动产管理其他相关业务的关联。在此基础上,明晰了不动产统一登记信息平台在国土资源信息化总体框架中的定位,以徐州市为例,给出了市(县)级不动产统一登记信息平台建设的主要内容,对当前不动产统一登记信息平台的建设进行了有益的探索。     

The relationship between the radio core-dominance parameter and spectral index in different classes of extragalactic radio sources(Ⅱ)

Active galactic nuclei(AGNs) can be divided into two major classes, namely radio-loud and radio-quiet AGNs. A small subset of the radio-loud AGNs is called blazars, which are believed to be unified with Fanaroff-Riley type Ⅰ/Ⅱ(FRI/Ⅱ) radio galaxies. Following our previous work(Fan et al.), we present a sample of 2400 sources with measured radio flux densities of the core and extended components. The sample contains 250 BL Lacs, 520 quasars, 175 Seyferts, 1178 galaxies, 153 FRI or FRⅡ galaxies and 104 unidentified sources. We then calculate the radio core-dominance parameters and spectral indices, and study their relationship. Our analysis shows that the core-dominance parameters and spectral indices are quite different for different types of sources. We also confirm that the correlation between core-dominance parameter and spectral index exists for a large sample presented in this work.     

Preface: Modern studies of variable stars

In this Mini-Volume, seven papers written on the basis of talks selected from those presented at the scientific conference "Modern studies of variable stars," commemorating Prof. M. A. Svechnikov(1933–2011), are published. The conference covered a variety of variable-star topics; the papers in this Mini-Volume deal with close, mainly eclipsing, binaries, Herbig Be stars and stellar molecular masers, with an accent on stellar catalogs of different kinds. We briefly review the contents of these papers.