后置群体评价方法在天气预报决策中的应用

在应用各种预报方法作每日的天气预报时，常遇到的各种预报方法的结果不一致的情形，这时需集各预报结果为一体作为群体决策意见，作者介绍了后置群体评价方法在天气预报决策中的具体应用，用该方法进行决策，取得了较理想的效果。     

矿产资源定量预测方法综述

对国内近二十年来所发展的矿产定量预测方法进行了较为全面的论述，主要包括矿床统计预测方法，灰色系统方法、模糊数学方法、分形几何方法、地质统计学方法、模式识别方法和地理信息系统等，并简述和评价了某些方法的基本应用。     

模糊直接识别方法在湘南地区成矿预测中的应用

本文利用信息量法及模糊直接识别方法对湘南地区的地质、物化探资料进行综合处理来优选找矿靶区,取得了一定的效果,为靶区优选提供了一条新的途径.     

Studies of early comprehensive judgment on seismic tendency after a moderate or strong earthquake

In this paper, the methods of pattern recognition and fuzzy cluster are applied to estimate comprehensive whether there would be an earthquake which magnitude is commensurate with (N=M ₀±0.3) or greatM>M ₀) thanM ₀ within 3 months using sequential data in 3 days immediately after a moderate or strong earthquake (M ₀≥4.7) occurred, The result of retrospective test indicates that the comprehensive judgment effects by using these applied mathematics methods are better than that of using every individual method obviously. TheV mark value of algorithm CORA-3 in pattern recognition is the highest among them. There are 44 known earthquake sequence data (5 type- I and 39 type- II) used to learn and train, the results of internal coincidence test show that all 44 sequence samples could be distinguished correctly. Extrapolation test by using other 4 known earthquake sequences (2 type- I and 2 type- II) shows that all 4 extrapolation samples could be distinguished correctly also. In the process of study, these methods have been applied to judge the post-earthquake tendency of 2 moderate earthquakes occurred recently, one is distinguished correctly and the other wrong. The algorithm Hamming in pattern recognition and fuzzy cluster method have been applied to judge the early post-earthquake tendency after a moderate or strong earthquake, too. TheV mark values of internal coincidence tests could get above 0.8 most cases of extrapolating are correct. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 15–21, 1993.     

紫色土不同土体的土壤肥力综合评价

采用专家系统建立了土壤肥力综合评判体系,应用模糊综合评判方法对不同土体的肥力进行了综合评判。评判结果表明,不同质地层次的土体均为可级,不同培肥土体均为优级。以综合评价总分,比较了不同土体肥力的优劣。简要分析了不同土体肥力差异的原因。由此为紫色土改良、防治其退化提供了科学依据。     

Mental Maps and Fuzziness in Space Preferences*

Mental maps are widely used to represent aggregate residential preferences in a population. This study examines the contention by researchers that the dominant viewpoint in a group in terms of residential desirability is not affected by the fuzziness in individual space preferences. Results indicate that a significant misrepresentation of group preferences can result when fuzziness of individual preferences is overlooked. The use of ordinal scales to generate mental maps is likely to distort the actual pattern of residential preferences that dominates in the group because of the failure of the ranking approach to account for imprecision and ambiguity in individual preferences. Because interval scales used in rating or evaluating tasks do not force individuals to give a crisp judgement of places, they are more adequate than ordinal scales for mental mapping and for behavioral analysis.     

水文水资源系统贝叶斯分析现状与前景

简介了贝叶斯分析的基本原理,综述了它在水文水资源系统中考虑不确定性和风险的特点及其在径流预报、洪水分析与地区综合、水资源规划与管理等问题中的应用,并分析了其发展前景,着重指出将灰色先验分布、模糊似然函数在贝叶斯定理框架中耦合的综合途径.     

对一起地震传言的影响评价和对策思考

本文对1993年10—11月份发生在厦门的地震传言的平息对策和社会调查统计作了研究，得到了几点有关地震社会学的认识。     

陕西灞源地区金矿远景区统计预测

近年来经初步工作在陕西灞源地区查明、发现小型金矿床、矿点共31处，本文根据矿点本身的各种特征，用模糊综合评判法对矿点矿化强度进行了评价和排序，以此为基础建立单元含矿性变列，筛选出成矿环境变量16个，用逻辑信息法在区内圈出金矿远景区A类40km^-2，B类46km^-2.为本区金矿进一步勘查工作部署提供了依据。     

重庆渝北地区地质环境质量模糊评判方法

近几年来，重庆市渝北地区地质环境质量显著恶化，严重威胁区内工、农业生产的发展。针对这种现状，本文较详尽地介绍了模糊综合评判方法在地质环境质量评价中的运用，讨论了用层次分析法计算权值。