哈萨克斯坦水环境与水资源现状及问题分析

水是最重要的自然资源之一,水资源的可利用量取决于自然条件和人为因素两个方面。亚洲中部干旱区水资源有限,近年来河湖萎缩、生态环境系统退化,已成为区域社会经济持续发展的瓶颈。以丝绸之路经济带沿线国家之一哈萨克斯坦内按照水资源需求程度划分的八大流域作为研究区,在进行各个流域水质及水资源现状特征分析的基础上,通过径流占比、人为影响程度以及水资源需求程度等3项指标分别对八大流域水资源进行综合评估,并采用可变模糊优选模型评价哈萨克斯坦境内不同流域人类活动对水资源的影响程度,对八大流域进行轻微、中等和显著等3个影响程度的等级划分。结果表明：人类活动对锡尔河-咸海及伊希姆河流域水资源以及水环境的影响程度处于显著水平,而且前者流域水质污染问题较为严重;乌拉尔河-里海流域的地表径流占比最高,但该区域因大量油气资源开发对水资源需求量非常高,处于危险等级。巴尔喀什湖-阿拉湖流域的用水需求处于临界程度,属于第三类（处于危重程度）。额尔齐斯河流域水储量最为丰富,但流域中游哈萨克斯坦境内矿产开发引起的水质污染严重。另外,近几十年来哈萨克斯坦地表径流变化分析表明,1965年以来年总径流量减少39.4 km³,其中跨境径流量减少23 km³,境内径流减少16.5 km³。近年虽然灌溉面积和工业活动减少,年均耗水量也有所减少,但是人口增长导致公共服务和生活等方面耗水量增加2.58 km³,区域水资源供需矛盾日益凸显。因此,需要综合考虑各国利益和整个区域社会经济与生态环境的和谐可持续发展,共同商定水资源开发利用及保护的措施。     

哈长城市群核心-外围结构及发展阶段判断研究

以哈长城市群为例,从“核心-边缘”理论视角出发,将哈长城市群空间结构划分为核心区和外围区,然后运用模糊综合评价法,分析评价哈长城市群发育程度,判断哈长城市群发展阶段水平,并探讨哈长城市群成长策略。研究结果表明：哈长城市群空间结构具有“3核心-外围区”空间结构特征,发展阶段处在雏形发育的末期阶段。哈长城市群需要加强中心城市建设,促进人口与经济要素集聚,加强区域经济合作和区域基础设施建设,促进城市群的一体化发展。     

模糊聚类的DEM确定耕地坡度方法

针对实际应用的坡度计算中没有考虑DEM高程精度影响这一状况,提出采用模糊聚类法进行坡度分级,给出了具体的精度评定方法,并采用我国南方某地区一个镇的第二次土地调查耕地成果数据进行了分析,与传统的直接计算方法进行了比较。结果表明,两种方法得到的图斑坡度级别基本相同;从总体分类精度与Kappa系数计算来看,两者基本接近,模糊聚类法略微优于直接计算法,而且由于其顾及了DEM高程精度的影响,得到的分级结果可靠性更高。     

基于改进模糊统计分析模型的概念层次分类规则研究

在数据挖掘和知识发现的研究过程中,往往需要对大量的数据进行概念层次分类处理,现广泛使用的方法是通过经验知识或主观判断进行处理,由于知识背景和经验层次的不同,导致不同的人对同一批数据同一问题提出不同的规则知识,加大了对规则知识进行合理性评估的难度。基于此问题,对传统的基于模糊统计分析模型的概念层次分类方法进行改进,首先,通过专家系统获取各模糊样本集,根据离散化的样本属性值及其相对隶属频率值对,进行RBF神经网络训练;然后,利用训练好的神经网络求取各模糊集的最模糊点;最后根据最模糊点获得各模糊集的区域划分,从而实现概念层次的分类处理,避免了传统方法处理过程的复杂性和主观性。     

Disaggregating and mapping crop statistics using hypertemporal remote sensing

Governments compile their agricultural statistics in tabular form by administrative area, which gives no clue to the exact locations where specific crops are actually grown. Such data are poorly suited for early warning and assessment of crop production. 10-Daily satellite image time series of Andalucia, Spain, acquired since 1998 by the SPOT Vegetation Instrument in combination with reported crop area statistics were used to produce the required crop maps. Firstly, the 10-daily (1998–2006) 1-km resolution SPOT-Vegetation NDVI-images were used to stratify the study area in 45 map units through an iterative unsupervised classification process. Each unit represents an NDVI-profile showing changes in vegetation greenness over time which is assumed to relate to the types of land cover and land use present. Secondly, the areas of NDVI-units and the reported cropped areas by municipality were used to disaggregate the crop statistics. Adjusted R-squares were 98.8% for rainfed wheat, 97.5% for rainfed sunflower, and 76.5% for barley. Relating statistical data on areas cropped by municipality with the NDVI-based unit map showed that the selected crops were significantly related to specific NDVI-based map units. Other NDVI-profiles did not relate to the studied crops and represented other types of land use or land cover. The results were validated by using primary field data. These data were collected by the Spanish government from 2001 to 2005 through grid sampling within agricultural areas; each grid (block) contains three 700 m × 700 m segments. The validation showed 68%, 31% and 23% variability explained (adjusted R-squares) between the three produced maps and the thousands of segment data. Mainly variability within the delineated NDVI-units caused relatively low values; the units are internally heterogeneous. Variability between units is properly captured. The maps must accordingly be considered “small scale maps”. These maps can be used to monitor crop performance of specific cropped areas because of using hypertemporal images. Early warning thus becomes more location and crop specific because of using hypertemporal remote sensing.     

数字海图产品质量的模糊综合评价

在对数字海图产品质量评价方法与评价内容进行介绍的基础上,着重阐述模糊综合评判数学模型的原理,并运用该模型对数字海图产品的质量进行实例分析,评价结果较直观的定性分析更加合理、可靠。     

模糊层次分析法在山区大农业发展决策中的应用

采用模糊层次分析方法,综合考虑自然资源条件和市场需求,分析并提出陇南山区白龙江流域各垂直气候层中农业各部门的优先发展顺序,为山区大农业发展提供决策依据。     

考虑模糊因素的单层工业厂房震害预测

在考虑单层工业厂房屋盖、抗侧力体系、围护体系等非模糊因素的基础上,引入了厂房体型规则性、房屋联结状况、施工质量、房屋破损程度四个模糊因素,运用模糊综合评判的方法,建立了单层工业厂房的震害预测模式。     

铁路工程地质勘察钻孔质量的层次-模糊综合评判

通过对铁路工程地质勘察钻孔质量评价因素的多层次、多因素研究,建立铁路勘察钻孔质量综合评判指标体系层次模型,运用层次分析法确定每个影响因素的权重,并采用模糊数学基本原理对铁路钻孔质量进行综合评判。在评判模型中,综合考虑影响铁路工程钻探质量的定量、非定量指标,以其成孔条件、钻探记录、原位测试为基本准则层,根据实际现场判断手段确立每个准则下的指标层,将指标层针对评判分级标准转换成隶属度矩阵,利用模糊数学原理综合评判铁路钻孔钻探质量等级。     

A NOTE ON DAMAGE-BASED INELASTIC SPECTRA

When a structure is subjected to moderate to severe ground motions, a few excursions of the response yield level may take place following the reductions usually enforced in the design forces. These excursions are associated with progressive damage in the structure. Thus, a choice of the design level has to be suitably based on the maximum damage to be allowed in the structure. In this paper, a stochastic technique of developing damage-based non-linear spectra has been proposed for the aseismic design of those structures which can be idealized through Single-Degree-Of-Freedom (SDOF) oscillators. The proposed technique has been illustrated by obtaining the non-linear spectra which can possibly be used for a damage-based design. Along with the spectra, allowable ductility demand which should be supplied through proper sizing and detailing of the members and is compatible with the damage has also been specified. The non-linear SDOF oscillators have been approximated for this purpose by equivalent linear oscillators using a new stochastic linearization technique. The proposed linearization technique has been validated through simulation results in the case of an idealized, non-hysteretic, Elasto-Plastic (EP) model.