Method to Determine Depositional Range of Sediment Transported from Multiple Sources in Water Area

- The sediment from different sources have different content of the characteristic elements. According to the fuzzy mathematical theory, corresponding calculation and cluster analysis of each sediment sample are carried out, so the main courses of sediment transport in water area can be obtained. The characteristics of sediment from different sources are analysed. It is found that the sediment deposited of certain point in water area is due to the sources' contributions which can be calculated by the formula derived in this paper. Based on the distribution of the contribution values, the depositional range of sediment from each source can be determined. The depositional range in Huangmao Bay is determined as an example.     

黄骅坳陷中区磁异常研究

用模糊数学方法研究黄骅坳陷中区,识别油气田磁异常以及由其它因素引起的磁异常。     

可控阵幂敛指数的一个新上界

从局部幂敛指数出发，对局部幂敛指数与其有向图的结构之间的关系进行了细致的分析，得到了1个简单易行的判断可控阵幂敛指数上界的方法，给出了可控阵幂敛指数的1个新的上界。     

Fuzzy Risk Analysis of Harbour Engineering Investment by Hierarchy System Approach

The present risk analysis model of engineering investment is built by fuzzy hierarchy approach under the assumption of maximizing the revenues of the project during its whole life cycle of operation. It can reasonably be expressed by a system evaluation analysis. As a matter of fact, the system, aimed by its system goal can be modelled by a set of factors, constitutively structured by certain links between them, to form a factorial network chart, which represents the essentials of the system behaviours, the nodes of which represent the factors concerned. The weight distribution between factors located at the same level can be determined by the eigen-value problem of a "pair comparison" relation matrix. The weight distribution of factors at each level is successively manipulated until the fuzzy synthetic risk assessment. As an example of risk analysis of engineering investment, a harbour construction project is presented for illustration.     

我国东海和南海沿岸的历史风暴潮探讨

根据我国丰富的地方史志资料分析,证实在我国频临东海,南海沿岸的历史风暴潮是由台风引起的,这与冬半年出现在我国北方沿岸的风暴潮不同。列出了历朝风暴潮按月的统计和重大历史风暴潮灾害表。对史志的记载进行了探讨,指出时间记载的可靠性,古地名的变迁:随同风暴潮记载的海象、气象、天象和物象的记述;以及由风暴潮引起的次生灾害。     

应用模式输出统计作海雾出现判别预报

应用模式输出统计的逐步判别方法，对山东南部沿海４～７月海雾出现作２４ｈ的判别预报。候选预报因子包括：日本数值预报传真图、近岸台站的观测、经验设计因子及其一些组合因子。对１９９３年４～７月独立资料，进行试报检验，结果表明，预报准确率达７７％     

A Bayesian Network Approach for Offshore Risk Analysis Through Linguistic Variables

This paper presents a new approach for offshore risk analysis that is capable of dealing with linguistic probabilities in Bayesian networks(BNs).In this paper,linguistic probabilities are used to describe occurrence likelihood of hazardous events that may cause possible accidents in offshore operations.In order to use fuzzy information,an f-weighted valuation function is proposed to transform linguistic judgements into crisp probability distributions which can be easily put into a BN to model causal relationships among risk factors.The use of linguistic variables makes it easier for human experts to express their knowledge,and the transformation of linguistic judgements into crisp probabilities can significantly save the cost of computation,modifying and maintaining a BN model.The flexibility of the method allows for multiple forms of information to be used to quantify model relationships,including formally assessed expert opinion when quantitative data are lacking,or when only qualitative or vague statements can be made.The model is a modular representation of uncertain knowledge caused due to randomness,vagueness and ignorance.This makes the risk analysis of offshore engineering systems more functional and easier in many assessment contexts.Specifically,the proposed f-weighted valuation function takes into account not only the dominating values,but also the α-level values that are ignored by conventional valuation methods.A case study of the collision risk between a Floating Production,Storage and Off-loading(FPSO) unit and the authorised vessels due to human elements during operation is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.     

模糊类比分析法在渔业数值预报中的应用研究

渔业数值预报除涉及水文、气象、饵料生物量、资源幼体等的资源环境因子外 ,还要考虑经济、社会等因素。本文在分析 1987～ 1993年历史资料的基础上 ,利用资料之间的类比性 ,提出渔情预报的模糊类比分析方法 ,将预报年份与历史记录之间的多指标综合类比排序 ,得出预报值。在东海北部鲐渔情预报中发现 ,与直接估算法比较 ,该方法具有所需资料少、预报迅速合理的优点 ,而且随着历史资料的扩充 ,自身能够不断学习更新。     

划分水团的模糊密度聚类法

提出不受资料输入顺序影响的模糊密度聚类法。给出模糊点密度的定义与计算方法,并用渤、黄、东海的温盐资料,进行模糊密度聚类计算,对聚类结果及水团划分进行了讨论。     

变性水团隶属函数的椭圆拟合法

应用模糊子集的概念描述浅海区变性水团。讨论了变性水团的隶属函数在θ—s图解上“落影”的形式。文中给出用椭圆拟合法建立隶属函数的实例。