滇东重点监视区Q值随时间变化的研究

本文根据Ａｋｉ的尾波散射理论，在前几年圈定的滇东重点监视区范围内量取了１１个台近站２５００个地震尾波资料，计算了各台在研究的大区域及６个小区域内的随时间变化的Ｑ值，并分析了其随时间变化的特征，得出滇东重点监视区在未来３至５年内不会有７级以上大震发生的危险性。     

B模式产品业务应用价值的总结分析

在总结江苏省台近１０年ＭＯＳ预报业务效果的基础上，提示了Ｂ模式产品在省级台天气预报中的应用价值，包括产品对江苏的释用水平．释用经验和如何取得最大业务效益的途径。     

Surface conductivity in rocks: a review

Electrical properties of rocks depend on composition (i.e. bulk properties of the constituents), micro structure (i.e. geometrical arrangement of the constituents) and interfacial effects. We consider here a rock as a three component system — grains, pores, and interfaces — in order to account for the observed behaviour. We review first the main results relative to DC. conductivity. Surface conductivity effects show up clearly in the case of shaly formations or at low salinities. Although Archies' law (1942) and Waxman and Smits model (1968) are widely used, a more physically based model is that of Johnson and Sen (1988). We review also the variable frequency conductivity (complex conductivity) data and models. The important effect in that case is the enhancement of the dielectric constant at low frequencies (Knight and Nur, 1987) which can be interpreted as a geometrical effect although electrochemical interactions may also play an important role at low frequencies, depending on the rock type.     

Appraisal of regional and index flood quantile estimators

Our results illustrate the performance of at-site and regional GEV/PWM flood quantile estimators in regions with different coefficients of variation, degrees of regional heterogeneity, record lengths, and number of sites. Analytic approximations of bias and variance are employed. For realistic GEV distributions and short records, the index-flood quantile estimator performs better than a 2-parameter GEV/PWM quantile estimator with a regional shape parameter, or a 3-parameter at-site GEV/PWM quantile estimator, in both humid and especially in arid regions, as long as the degree of regional heterogeneity is moderate. As regional heterogeneity or record lengths increases, 2-parameter estimators quickly dominate. Flood frequency models that assign probabilities larger than 2% to negative flows are unrealistic; experiments employing such distributions provide questionable results. This appraisal generally demonstrates the value of regionalizing estimators of the shape of a flood distribution, and sometimes the coefficient of variation.     

Coda waves: A review

The analysis and interpretation of coda waves have received increasing attention since the early seventies. In the past few years interest in this subject has spread worldwide, and the study of high-frequency seismic coda waves has become a very important seismological topic. As a conclusion of the studies accomplished in this time, coda waves are considered the result of scattering processes caused by heterogeneities acting on seismic waves.P andS waves play a particularly important role in this interaction. The process introduces an attenuation which, added to the intrinsic absorption, gives the observed apparent attenuation. Therefore, coda waves constitute a thumbprint left by the heterogeneities on the seismograms. Coda waves offer decisive information about the mechanism of how scattering and attenuation take place. This review describes coda waves in detail, and summarizes the work done in this subject to 1986. The relation between coda waves and attenuation in the context of research on seismic scattering problems is stressed. Particular attention has been given to the application of coda waves to estimate source and medium parameters. The state-of-the-art of the temporal variations of coda wave shape, and the possible use of these variations as an earthquake precursor also are presented. Care has been taken to introduce the statistical models used to deal with the heterogeneities responsible for scattering.     

地下水物理参量强地震中短期预报方法的检验

应用“九五”子专题“地下水物理参量异常识别标志体系及预报方法研究”的研究思路,预报方法和指标对河北省井网1983年以来的水位观测资料进行了全时程扫描,结果表明“群井群常年频次法”在河北及邻近地区中强地震前有较明显的异常显示,应用效果较好,对该方法进行了预报效能R值评分,评价结果表明漏报率低,虚报率高。     

贵州省矿业开发引起的环境问题及其成因探讨

矿业开发给贵州省造成严重的生态环境问题,主要包括环境污染,矿业荒漠化和环境地质灾害。虽然贵州省矿产开发的历史比较悠久,但解放前的生态破坏和矿业污染仅局限在个别地区,解放后出现的三次大规模资源环境破坏,给贵州省矿业可持续发展带来严重影响,特别是改革开放以来矿山资源的无序开发对环境的危害最重。导致贵州省矿业环境问题的主要因素包括：矿产资源价值的严重扭曲,乡镇企业的超常规发展,部分政府官员的权力寻租,以及资源导向型的脱贫模式等。     

关中地区地磁比值Rq的变化与地震关系的分析

应用小波分析空间差分法分析了泾阳台、乾陵台、周至台和郑州台的Z分量的地磁磁静日Rg值的变化规律，结果显示，各台的磁静日Rg值有较一致的年变规律。分析泾阳台与其它各台的磁静日R。差值分析和小波变换，发现1998年1月5日泾阳4．8级地震前4个月内存在较明显的异常变化。可能反映了泾阳地震的震磁效应。对远离泾阳台、乾陵台的青海昆仑山口西8．1级地震，震前也有明显异常变化。     

The Relative Impact of Regional Scale Land Cover Change and Increasing CO2 over China

A series of 17-yr equilibrium simulations using the NCAR CCM3 (T42 resolution) were performed to investigate the regional scale impacts of land cover change and increasing CO2 over China. Simulations with natural and current land cover at CO2 levels of 280,355, 430, and 505 ppmv were conducted. Results show statistically significant changes in major climate fields (e.g. temperature and surface wind speed) on a 15-yr average following land cover change. We also found increases in the maximum temperature and in the diurnal temperature range due to land cover change. Increases in CO2 affect both the maximum and minimum temperature so that changes in the diurnal range are small. Both land cover change and CO2 change also impact the frequency distribution of precipitation with increasing CO2 tending to lead to more intense precipitation and land cover change leading to less intense precipitation-indeed, the impact of land cover change typically had the opposite effect versus the impacts of CO2. Our results provide support for the inclusion of future land cover change scenarios in long-term transitory climate inodelling experiments of the 21st Century. Our results also support the inclusion of land surface models that can represent future land cover changes resulting from an ecological response to natural climate variability or increasing CO2. Overall, we show that land cover change can have a significant impact on the regional scale climate of China, and that regionally, this impact is of a similar magnitude to increases in CO2 of up to about 430 ppmv. This means that that the impact of land cover change must be accounted for in detection and attribution studies over China.     

Improving the accuracy of tipping-bucket rain records using disaggregation techniques

We present a methodology able to infer the influence of rainfall measurement errors on the reliability of extreme rainfall statistics. We especially focus on systematic mechanical errors affecting the most popular rain intensity measurement instrument, namely the tipping-bucket rain-gauge (TBR). Such uncertainty strongly depends on the measured rainfall intensity (RI) with systematic underestimation of high RIs, leading to a biased estimation of extreme rain rates statistics. Furthermore, since intense rain-rates are usually recorded over short intervals in time, any possible correction strongly depends on the time resolution of the recorded data sets. We propose a simple procedure for the correction of low resolution data series after disaggregation at a suitable scale, so that the assessment of the influence of systematic errors on rainfall statistics become possible. The disaggregation procedure is applied to a 40-year long rain-depth dataset recorded at hourly resolution by using the IRP (Iterated Random Pulse) algorithm. A set of extreme statistics, commonly used in urban hydrology practice, have been extracted from simulated data and compared with the ones obtained after direct correction of a 12-year high resolution (1 min) RI series. In particular, the depth–duration–frequency curves derived from the original and corrected data sets have been compared in order to quantify the impact of non-corrected rain intensity measurements on design rainfall and the related statistical parameters. Preliminary results suggest that the IRP model, due to its skill in reproducing extreme rainfall intensities at fine resolution in time, is well suited in supporting rainfall intensity correction techniques.