Annual Frequency of Tropical Cyclones Directly Affecting Guangdong Province:Prediction Based on LSTM-FC

Tropical cyclone(TC) annual frequency forecasting is significant for disaster prevention and mitigation in Guangdong Province. Based on the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and NOAA Extended Reconstructed global sea surface temperature(SST) V5 data in winter, the TC frequency climatic features and prediction models have been studied.During 1951-2019, 353 TCs directly affected Guangdong with an annual average of about 5.1. TCs have experienced an abrupt change from abundance to deficiency in the mid to late ...     

Stress‐dependent hardening and failure surfaces of dry sand

During several triaxial compression experiments on plastic hardening, softening, and failure properties of dense sand specimens, it was found on various stress paths that the size of the failure surface was not constant. Instead, it changed depending on the current state of hydrostatic pressure. This finding is in contrast to the standard opinion consisting of the fact that the failure surface remains constant, once it has been reached during an experiment or in situ. In general, the behaviour of cohesionless granular‐material‐like sand is somehow characterised in between fluid and solid, where the solid behaviour results from the angle of internal friction and the confining pressure. Although the friction angle is an intrinsic material property, the confining pressure varies with the boundary conditions, thus defining different solid properties like plastic hardening, softening, and also failure. Based on our findings, it was the goal of the present contribution to introduce an improved setting for the plastic strain hardening and softening behaviour including the newly found yield properties at the limit state. For the identification of the material parameters, a complete triaxial experimental analysis of the tested sand is given. The overall elasto‐plasticity concept is validated by numerical computations of several laboratory foundation‐ and slope‐failure experiments. The performance of the proposed approach is compared with the standard concept of a constant failure surface, where the corresponding yield surfaces are understood as contours of equivalent plastic work or plastic strain. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Palaeoflood activity and climate change over the last 1400 years recorded by lake sediments in the north‐west European Alps

A high‐resolution sedimentological and geochemical study of a high‐altitude proglacial lake (Lake Blanc, Aiguilles Rouges, 2352 m a.s.l.) revealed 195 turbidites, 190 of which are related to flood events over the last 1400 years. We used the coarsest sediment fraction of each turbidite as a proxy for the intensity of each flood event. Because most flood events at this locality are triggered by localized summer convective precipitation events, the reconstructed sedimentary record reveals changes in the frequency and intensity of such events over the last millennium. Comparisons with other temperature, palaeohydrological and glacier reconstructions in the region suggest that the most intense events occurred during the warmest periods, i.e. during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (AD 800–1300) and the current period of global warming. On a multi‐decadal time scale, almost all the flood frequency peaks seem to correspond to warmer periods, whereas multi‐centennial variations in flood frequency appear to follow the regional precipitation pattern. Consequently, this new Alpine flood record provides further evidence of a link between climate warming and an increase in the frequency and intensity of flooding on a multi‐decadal time scale, whereas the centennial variability in flood frequencies is related to regional precipitation patterns. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analyse fréquentielle régionale des précipitations journalières maximales annuelles au Québec,Canada / Regional frequency analysis of annual maximum daily precipitation in Quebec,Canada

Abstract

Abstract A complete regional analysis of daily precipitations is carried out in the southern half of the province of Quebec, Canada. The first step of the regional estimation procedure consists of delineating the homogeneous regions within the area of study and testing for homogeneity within each region. The delineation of homogeneous regions is based on using L-moment ratios. A simulation-based testing of statistical homogeneity allows one to verify the inter-site variability. The second step of the procedure deals with the identification of the regional distribution and the estimation of its parameters. The General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was identified as an appropriate parent distribution. This distribution has already been recommended by several previous research studies for regional frequency analysis of precipitation extremes. The parameters of the GEV distribution are estimated based on the computation of the regional L-CV, L-C_S and the mean of annual maximal daily precipitations. The third step consists of the estimation of precipitation quantiles corresponding to various return periods. The final procedure allows for the estimation of these quantiles at sites where no precipitation information is available. The use of a jack-knife resampling procedure with data from the province of Quebec allows one to demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of the regional estimation procedure. Values of the root mean square error were below 10% for a return period of 20 years, and 20% for a return period of 100 years.     

Gas phase reactions of alkyl nitrates with hydroxyl radicals under tropospheric conditions in comparison with photolysis

Rate constants for the reaction of OH radicals with some branched alkyl nitrates have been measured applying a competitive technique. Methyl nitrite photolysis in synthetic air was used as OH radical source at 295±2 K and 1000 mbar total pressure. Using a rate constant of 2.53×10^-12 cm³ s^-1 for the reaction of OH radicals with n-butane as reference, the following rate constants were obtained (units: 10^-12 cm³ s^-1): isopropyl nitrate, 0.59±0.22; isobutyl nitrate, 1.63±0.20; 3-methyl-2-butyl nitrate, 1.95±0.15; 2-methyl-1-butyl nitrate, 2.50±0.15; 3-methyl-1-butyl nitrate, 2.55±0.35. These values have been combined with the literature data to recalculate the substituent factors F(X) for the different nitrate groups which can be used to predict OH rate constants for organic nitrates for which experimental data are not available.Preliminary measurements of the photolysis frequency of isopropyl nitrate have shown that for this nitrate as a model substance, OH reactions and direct photolysis are of equal importance under tropospheric conditions.     

涡流地震检波器的特性及测试方法的研究

本文介绍了涡流地震检波器的工作原理、结构及其频率响应特性--涡流检波器的输出特性在固有频率之上是按外界激励频率的平方递增。高频灵敏度随着激励频率的增加而增高有助于弥补高频信号通过地层传播时的急剧衰减,从而提高了地震勘探的分辨率。在固有频率之下,则加强了低频滤波作用。 本文还以对单自由度线性振动系统的动态分析为基础,研究了利用实验幅频特性曲线来求该系统的固有频率和阻尼系数的方法,推导出必要的计算公式。最后举出一个应用实例,并检验了这种方法的可信度。     

未来地震震级的定量计算

将某一地震带在强震前某一时期内发生的地震,按其面波震级大小自大到小排列,并以N=2、3、4、……来累计频度,采用公式logN=a-bM计算a、b,从而计算出第一个地震的震级M_1,这就是未来可能发生地震的震级。通过对川滇地区和华北地区的九次近期强震进行计算,结果表明,在震级测定误差范围(±0.3级)内,上述的M和logN之间具有很好的线性关系,这就为地震预报和地震区划中定量计算未来地震震级提出了一个新的方法。     

电偶源频率电磁测深中比值视电阻率和阻抗相位的联合反演

本文论述了电偶源频率电磁测深中,利用比值视电阻率和相应阻抗相位进行联合反演的必要性和可能的应用前景及具体实施方法。理论模型和实际观测资料的反演试验表明这一联合反演是可行和有效的,且明显地优于视电阻率和阻抗相位的单参量反演。     

Some aspects of the spatial characteristics of drought in northern Nigeria

A long-period instrumental data set (1916–1987) of monthly growing season (April–October) rainfall totals for 34 stations in northern Nigeria is used to quantify drought following the method of H. N. Bhalme and D. A. Mooley. It is established that there are remarkable seasonal changes in the patterns of wetness and dryness over the region with no consistent recurrent spatial patterns in the moisture anomalies. In general, large-scale droughts only rarely cover the region as a whole, and there are distinct spatial differences dominating the wet and dry years. The length and severity of drought varies from sub-area to sub-area with very low interannual persistence. Although discrete areas do catch the brunt of drought on a year-by-year basis, drought occurrence in the region is largely sporadic in its spatial distribution. The rather noisy spatial characteristics of drought in northern Nigeria suggests that the seasonal shift in the Intertropical Discontinuity (ITD) is not likely the most important causal mechanism of drought in the region.