The 17 March 2005 Kuzulu landslide (Sivas, Turkey) and landslide-susceptibility map of its near vicinity

Landslides are common natural hazards in the seismically active North Anatolian Fault Zone of Turkey. Although seismic activity, heavy rainfall, channel incisions, and anthropogenic effects are commonly the main triggers of landslides, on March 17, 2005, a catastrophic large landslide in Sivas, northeastern of Turkey, the Kuzulu landslide, was triggered by snowmelt without any other precursor. The initial failure of the Kuzulu landslide was rotational. Following the rotational failure, the earth material in the zone of accumulation exhibited an extremely rapid flow caused by steep gradient and high water content. The Agnus Creek valley, where Kuzulu village is located, was filled by the earth-flow material and a landslide dam was formed on the upper part of Agnus Creek. The distance from the toe of the rotational failure down to the toe of the earth flow measured more than 1800 m, with about 12.5 million m³ of displaced earth material. The velocity of the Kuzulu landslide was extremely fast, approximately 6 m/s. The main purposes of this study are to describe the mechanism and the factors conditioning the Kuzulu landslide, to present its environmental impacts, and to produce landslide-susceptibility maps of the Kuzulu landslide area and its near vicinity. For this purpose, a detailed landslide inventory map was prepared and geology, slope, aspect, elevation, topographic-wetness index and stream-power index were considered as conditioning factors. During the susceptibility analyses, the conditional probability approach was used and a landslide-susceptibility map was produced. The landslide-susceptibility map will help decision makers in site selection and the site-planning process. The map may also be accepted as a basis for landslide risk-management studies to be applied in the study area.     

午后多重极光弧观测研究

本文利用2001-2003年南极中山站175天全天空摄像机观测,对午后多重极光弧的出现率及其与Kp指数的关系进行了统计分析,结果表明午后多重极光弧出现率呈一单峰分布,最大发生率出现在1445UT(1645MLT),其位置在1500MLT极光热点(1300-1700MLT)近夜侧的部分。与地磁活动指数Kp的相关统计分析表明,Kp值为2-3之间时多重极光弧有较大的出现率,这说明中等地磁活动情形下午后多重极光弧有较高的出现率。事件分析表明多重极光弧的强度变化与地磁Pc5脉动具有较高的相关性,并且有类似的频谱特征,这说明午后多重极光弧可能与同时出现的Pc5地磁脉动有关。     

Development of a soil moisture‐based distributed hydrologic model for determining hydrologically based critical source areas

A simple grid cell‐based distributed hydrologic model was developed to provide spatial information on hydrologic components for determining hydrologically based critical source areas. The model represents the critical process (soil moisture variation) to run‐off generation accounting for both local and global water balance. In this way, it simulates both infiltration excess run‐off and saturation excess run‐off. The model was tested by multisite and multivariable evaluation on the 50‐km² Little River Experimental Watershed I in Georgia, U.S. and 2 smaller nested subwatersheds. Water balance, hydrograph, and soil moisture were simulated and compared to observed data. For streamflow calibration, the daily Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.78 at the watershed outlet and 0.56 and 0.75 at the 2 nested subwatersheds. For the validation period, the Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficients were 0.79 at the watershed outlet and 0.85 and 0.83 at the 2 subwatersheds. The per cent bias was less than 15% for all sites. For soil moisture, the model also predicted the rising and declining trends at 4 of the 5 measurement sites. The spatial distribution of surface run‐off simulated by the model was mainly controlled by local characteristics (precipitation, soil properties, and land cover) on dry days and by global watershed characteristics (relative position within the watershed and hydrologic connectivity) on wet days when saturation excess run‐off was simulated. The spatial details of run‐off generation and travel time along flow paths provided by the model are helpful for watershed managers to further identify critical source areas of non‐point source pollution and develop best management practices.     

A long‐term study of stable isotopes as tracers of processes governing water flow and quality in a lowland river basin: the upper Thames,UK

A long‐term study of O, H and C stable isotopes has been undertaken on river waters across the 7000‐km² upper Thames lowland river basin in the southern UK. During the period, flow conditions ranged from drought to flood. A 10‐year monthly record (2003–2012) of the main River Thames showed a maximum variation of 3‰ (δ¹⁸O) and 20‰ (δ²H), although interannual average values varied little around a mean of –6.5‰ (δ¹⁸O) and –44‰ (δ²H). A δ²H/δ¹⁸O slope of 5.3 suggested a degree of evaporative enrichment, consistent with derivation from local rainfall with a weighted mean of –7.2‰ (δ¹⁸O) and –48‰ (δ²H) for the period. A tendency towards isotopic depletion of the river with increasing flow rate was noted, but at very high flows (>100 m³/s), a reversion to the mean was interpreted as the displacement of bank storage by rising groundwater levels (corroborated by measurements of specific electrical conductivity). A shorter quarterly study (October 2011–April 2013) of isotope variations in 15 tributaries with varying geology revealed different responses to evaporation, with a well‐correlated inverse relationship between Δ¹⁸O and baseflow index for most of the rivers. A comparison with aquifer waters in the basin showed that even at low flow, rivers rarely consist solely of isotopically unmodified groundwater. Long‐term monitoring (2003–2007) of carbon stable isotopes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the Thames revealed a complex interplay between respiration, photosynthesis and evasion, but with a mean interannual δ¹³C‐DIC value of –14.8 ± 0.5‰, exchange with atmospheric carbon could be ruled out. Quarterly monitoring of the tributaries (October 2011–April 2013) indicated that in addition to the aforementioned factors, river flow variations and catchment characteristics were likely to affect δ¹³C‐DIC. Comparison with basin groundwaters of different alkalinity and δ¹³C‐DIC values showed that the origin of river baseflow is usually obscured. The findings show that long‐term monitoring of environmental tracers can help to improve the understanding of how lowland river catchments function. Copyright © NERC 2015. Hydrological Processes © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于NDVI时间序列数据的江西省水稻种植制度变化研究

利用Savitzky-Golay滤波对覆盖江西省范围的SPOT VGT NDVI时间序列数据进行平滑处理的基础上,结合坡度数据,通过非监督分类的方法提取了江西省2000、2005和2010年水稻种植范围,并根据NDVI的年内动态变化,从水稻种植范围、水稻生长季起始时间、水稻复种指数和NDVI最大振幅等分析了江西省水稻种植和生长情况,探讨2000~2010年江西省水稻生产的变化。     

运用ENVI实现SPOT-5卫星影像的RVI提取

运用ENVI软件处理长沙地区的SPOT-5影像,将全色影像和多波段影像进行融合,分析融合后的影像,再选择感兴趣区域进行影像裁剪;采用ENVI的波段运算(Band3/Band2)提取该地区比值植被指数并进行分析。结果表明:比值植被指数对植被覆盖率较高的区域有非常高的敏感度;在植被覆盖率小于50%的时候,其敏感度明显降低,在绿色植被覆盖区域的比值植被指数远大于1,在裸露地表、建筑物、水体等没有植被覆盖区域的比值植被指数则在1附近,而比值植被指数大于2的则出现在高覆盖健康绿色植被上。     

相干变化指数法在震害快速评估中的应用

合成孔径雷达(SAR)具有全天候全天时的特点,为快速展开地震救援,评估震害损失提供了重要的数据支持。本文基于汶川震中东南平原地区的ENVISATASAR影像,利用相位干涉方法处理得到相干变化指数图像,对6个评估区域的像元相干变化指数进行统计分析,以相干变化指数平均值作为区分建筑物基本完好与损毁的阈值,并与实地调查结果相比,精度基本达到70%。验证干涉相干变化指数法对震害快速评估有效的同时,也为震区提供震害救援的依据。     

齐齐哈尔市地理国情分析与表达

以齐齐哈尔市为例,利用地理国情普查数据与统计年鉴数据,构建自然地表指数、地理区位指数、生态覆被指数,对齐齐哈尔市各县、区的地理国情进行综合分析和地图表达。结果表明,齐齐哈尔市的总体条件较好,但区域差异较大,自然地表条件与地理区位条件均以中部的齐齐哈尔市辖区为优,而生态覆被条件则以北部和西部地区为优。     

5—6月东北冷涡持续活动及强度特征

利用1960—2012年5—6月NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,基于冷涡经典定义,采取客观识别方法检索东北冷涡活动过程,根据东北冷涡活动时空变化特征给出东北冷涡持续活动过程标准, 通过冷涡强度指数进行定量化分析,该指数对冷涡持续活动过程具有较好表征意义。冷涡活动强对应5月乌拉尔山阻塞高压、贝加尔湖阻塞高压和6月鄂霍次克海阻塞高压活动频繁。通过强弱指数年合成,得到6月强指数年冷涡系统较深厚,集中于对流层中高层,冷心结构明显,具有一定大气斜压特征; 高层存在冷中心,低层有冷空气活动,中高层西风带呈明显的上游分流和下游汇合特征,分汇流之间呈东北高、西南低的偶极子阻塞形势;弱指数年冷涡系统较浅薄,主要集中在对流层中低层,冷心结构不明显,不存在阻塞形势。     

内蒙古河套灌区春玉米作物系数试验研究

作物系数曲线是估算作物生长季耗水量变化的重要参数。基于2013年4—9月内蒙古巴彦淖尔市临河区田间水分试验和1994—2013年气象站观测资料,利用水量平衡法反求春玉米作物系数,分析生长季内的变化规律, 建立动态模拟方程,并与联合国粮农组织 (FAO) 分段直线法结果进行比较, 提出胁迫条件下作物系数的叶面积修正方法。结果表明:玉米作物系数随发育进程可用三项式曲线描述,变化趋势与产量水平无关, 但随产量增高而变幅增大;以出苗后相对积温为时间变量建立模拟方程效果较好,决定系数 (R2) 均在0.92以上;模拟计算出各站点最大 (1.30~1.48) 和平均 (0.831~0.919) 作物系数,与FAO分段直线法计算的典型值和区间值基本一致,生长中期平均相对误差为3.4%~7.2%;提出利用相对叶面积指数修正作物系数的计算方法;通过2014年实例检验,土壤水分模拟值与实测值的平均相对误差为6.3%,相对误差小于15%的占95.8%。