新一代区域海-气-浪耦合台风预报系统

依托国家重点基础研究（973）计划项目"上层海洋对台风的响应和调制机理研究",中国气象局上海台风研究所联合国家海洋局的相关单位,通过实施近海台风的外场观测科学试验、加强台风边界层（特别是海气相互作用）物理过程诊断分析及参数化方案等的研究,建立并改进了台风强度预报的海-气-浪耦合预报模式系统,并在此基础上发展了台风强度的集合预报技术,在历史典型台风个例和2016-2017年台汛期的业务化测试中表现出良好的预报性能。     

Examining fault architecture and strain distribution using geospatial and geomechanical modelling: An example from the Qaidam basin,NE Tibet

The investigation of complex geological setting is still dominated by traditional geo-data collection and analytical techniques, e.g., stratigraphic logging, dip data measurements, structural ground mapping, seismic interpretation, balance section restoration, forward modelling, etc. Despite the advantages of improving our understanding in structural geometry and fault architecture, the geospatial modelling, applying computer-aided three-dimensional geometric design, visualization and interpretation, has rarely been applied to such complex geological setting. This study used the Lenghu fold-and-thrust belt (in Qaidam basin, NE Tibetan Plateau) to demonstrate that the application of geospatial and geomechanical modelling could improve our understanding and provide an effective technique for investigating the fault architecture and strain distribution. The three-dimensional configuration of the Lenghu fold-and-thrust belt was initially derived from traditional analysis techniques, such as regional stratigraphic logging, cross section construction, meso-scale ground mapping and landsat image interpretation. The high-resolution field data and landsat image were integrated to construct the geospatial model, which was subsequently used to quantitatively investigate the fault throw changes along the Lenghu thrust fault zone and to understand its control on the lateral structural variation. The geospatial model was then restored in three dimensions to reveal the kinematic evolution of the Lenghu fold-and-thrust belt. Geomechanical modelling, using a Mass-Spring algorithm, provided an effective three-dimensional tool for structural strain analysis, which was used to predict the strain distribution throughout the overall structure, e.g., normal faults with throws ranging from meters to tens of meters in the hanging-wall. The strain distribution predicted by geomechanical modelling was then validated by the natural normal faults in the hanging-wall. The high accordance between the strain prediction and statistics of natural normal faults demonstrates good applicability of geospatial and geomechanical modelling in the complex geological setting of the Lenghu fold-and-thrust belt. The geospatial models and geomechanical models, therefore, can provide a robust technique for analyzing and interpreting multi-source data within a three-dimensional environment. We anticipate that the application of three-dimensional geospatial modelling and geomechanical modelling, integrating both multi-source geologic data and three-dimensional analytical techniques, can provide an effective workflow for investigating the fault architecture and strain distribution at different scales (e.g., ranging from regional-to meso-scale).     

Turbidity characterizes the reproduction areas of pikeperch (Sander lucioperca (L.)) in the northern Baltic Sea

The pikeperch (Sander lucioperca (L.)) is an economically important fish species occurring in the fresh and brackish waters of Europe. To evaluate the distribution and extent of the reproduction areas in the northern Baltic Sea, a field survey was carried out in two separate coastal areas. Presence/absence data were used to develop a geographic information system (GIS)-based predictive spatial distribution model, where high resolution raster maps of the focal environmental variables and a logistic regression equation were used to predict the probability of larval occurrence. The results indicated that the pikeperch reproduction areas are located in the innermost archipelago zone where high water turbidity best explained their presence. Turbidity was related to several other variables such as fetch and depth. Contrary to our preliminary hypothesis, surface water temperatures measured during the survey had no significant effect in the model due to the low spatial variation in the measured values. Since turbidity is possible to determine by remote sensing methods, the probability maps can be cost-effectively extended to more extensive coastal areas with proper validation.     

Role of Vertical Resolution in Numerical Models Towards the Intensification,Structure and Track of Tropical Cyclones

The impact of vertical resolution on the evolution and movement of tropical cyclones was studied using NCAR MM5 model with a horizontal resolution of 9 km. Four numerical experiments were performed with different vertical resolutions, that is, with 23 vertical levels as control experiment, and 36 vertical levels with high resolution in the lower troposphere, 33 vertical levels with high resolution in the upper troposphere and 46 vertical levels with increased vertical resolution throughout the troposphere as relative to base experiment. The results indicate that increased vertical resolution in the lower troposphere produces efficient intensification and better structure in terms of eye and eyewall. Increased vertical resolution at lower levels improves the prediction of vertical shear of horizontal wind. Experiments with high resolution in the lower troposphere and high resolution throughout the troposphere simulate better track up to 72 hours.     

A Dynamical Statistical Model for Prediction of a Tropical Cyclone

A dynamical statistical method is applied for operational forecasting of the Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone “Nargis” of April–May 2008. The method consists of three forecast components, namely (a) analysis of Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP) and maximum potential intensity, (b) track prediction, and (c) 12 hourly intensity prediction for forecasts up to 72 hours. The results of the study showed that GPP could provide necessary predictive signal at early stages of development on the further intensification of the low pressure system into a tropical cyclone. The landfall forecast position errors by different operational numerical models (NWP) showed landfall position errors ranging from 10 km to 150 km and landfall time error ranges from 6 hours early to 6 hours delay. The dynamical statistical model is capable to provide 12 hourly nearly realistic intensity forecasts up to 60 hours of forecast.     

Settlement Prediction Under Linearly Loading Condition

The relationship between time and settlement is a key problem in geotechnical engineering. Current methods used to predict the time-dependant settlement are based mainly on instantaneous loading condition. In this paper, the settlement curve under linearly loading condition, which is suitable for building and embankment projects, is mathematically proved to be “S” shaped. Subsequently, a new model, the Poison model, is raised to predict the settlement, and the method of parameter solution is also introduced. Finally, several problems about the Poisson prediction model are discussed.     

鄂尔多斯盆地中生界低幅度构造岩性圈闭油气储层预测技术

鄂尔多斯盆地天环向斜中生界油气储层为低幅度构造背景下的砂岩岩性圈闭储层,与围岩波阻抗差小,常规的地震储层预测方法精度低。针对储层的地质地球物理特征,提出了地震地层分析与物性反演的储层预测技术方案,提高了储层预测精度。     

曲线重构技术在鄂尔多斯盆地岩性圈闭储层预测中的应用

在井约束的随机反演过程中,通常利用单一测井曲线来指示储层,这种方法使用的曲线类型单一,不能完整地反映储层特征。因此,提出利用多种测井曲线来重构一种更接近储层真实特性的曲线,相比较伽马、中子等曲线而言,重构后的曲线与波阻抗具有更好的相关性,反演出来的岩性剖面更加真实。针对D区实际资料,利用曲线重构反演技术进行目标区储层预测,取得了相对常规单一曲线岩性反演更好的效果,证明了该方法的有效性。     

Seismic fracture evaluation of diaphragm joints in welded beam-to-box column moment connections

Steel box columns are widely used in steel building structures in Taiwan due to their dual strong axes. To transfer the beam-end moment to the column, diaphragm plates of the same thickness and elevations as the beam flanges are usually welded inside the box column. The electro-slag welding (ESW) process is widely used to connect the diaphragms to the column flanges in Taiwan because of its convenience and efficiency. However, ESW may increase the hardness of the welds and heat-affected zones (HAZs), while reducing the Charpy-V notch strength in the HAZ. This situation can cause premature fracture of the diaphragm-to-column flange welds before a large plastic rotation is developed in the beam-to-box column joints. To quantify the critical eccentricity and the effectiveness of fracture prediction, this study uses fracture prediction models and finite element model (FEM) analysis to correlate the test results. In this study, two beam-to-box column connection subassembly tests are conducted with different loading protocols and ESW chamber shapes. To implement a fracture prediction model, the material parameters are established from circumferential notched tensile tests and FEM analysis. Test results indicate that the fracture instances can be predicted on the basis of the cumulative plastic deformation in the HAZs. Analytical results indicate that fracture instances and locations are sensitive to the relative locations of the ESW joints and beam flange. Tests also confirm that the possible fracture of the diaphragm-to-column flange joints can be mitigated by enlarging the chamber of the ESW joint.     

气候变暖与海平面上升

本文通过大量实际资料分析认为,现代全球变暖与海平面上升,源于200多年前小冰期冷峰出现后的气候返暖、海平面回升过程演变的结果。近30年的世界海平面上升的速率,有着上世纪80、90年代和本世纪前10年世界平均气温每10年以0．2F°（0．11℃）为梯度的连续抬升为背景。在此以CO。含量为气候指标,划分出了公元200年以来的八个暖段（暖期）。若按冷暖极值距200年或250年计算,则由目前正在发展的暖期,将在公元2050年或2100年前后结束,而后开始降温。作者依据最近30年同一时段国内外验潮资料计算获得的绝对海平面升降速率为＋1．52±0．27mm／a及相对海平面升降速率为＋1．39±0．26mm/a。按照2010年坎昆气候大会决议要求,在对前人有关研究成果进行考量时,对将来的2050和2100年世界海平面预测及我国地面沉降较明显的沿海城市如天津、上海、厦门、海口等相对海平面升降值,进行了测算与评估。