Verification of the motion fields over Southeast Asia by the Florida State University (FSU) superensemble forecast

The Florida State University (FSU) multimodel superensemble forecast is evaluated against several other operational weather models for the Southeast Asia region. The superensemble technique has demonstrated its exceptional skills in forecasting precipitation, motion and mass fields compared to either individual global operational or ensemble mean forecasts. The motion field investigation for the season of 2001 reveals that the superensemble forecasts are closer to the observed data compared to the other global member operational models through its low systematic errors at the 850 hPa level. The FSU multimodel superensemble forecasts exhibit the lowest root mean square errors (RSMEs), the highest correlation against the best observed data and the lowest systematic errors compared to the other operational model members. These forecasts have the potential to provide better daily weather predictions over the Southeast Asia region, particularly during the early northeast monsoon that often causes heavy rainfall in the equatorial part of the Southeast Asia region.     

Initiation and development of pull-apart basins with Riedel shear mechanism: insights from scaled clay experiments

Typical pull-apart structures were created in scaled clay experiments with a pure strike-slip geometry (Riedel type experiments). A clay slab represents the sedimentary cover above a strike-slip fault in the rigid basement. At an early stage of the development of the deformation zone, synthetic shear fractures (Riedel shears) within the clay slab display dilatational behaviour. With increasing basal displacement the Riedel shears rotate and open further, developing into long, narrow and deep troughs. The shear displacement and the low angle with the prescribed principal basal fault set them apart from tension gashes. At a more evolved stage, synthetic segments (Y-shears) parallel to the basal principal fault develop and accommodate progressive strike-slip deformation. The Y-shears connect the tips of adjacent troughs developed from the earlier Riedel shears, resulting in the typical rhomb-shaped structures characteristic for pull-apart basins. The Strait of Sicily rift zone, with major strike-slip systems being active from the Miocene to the Present, comprises pull-apart basins at different length scales, for which the structural record suggests development by a mechanism similar to that observed in our experiments.     

Dissolved trace elements in river water: spatial distribution and the influencing factor, a study for the Pearl River Delta Economic Zone, China

Twenty-nine water samples were collected from different river channels of the Pearl River Delta Economic Zone, China. An inductively coupled plasma-mass spectromonitor (ICP-MS) was used to measure concentrations of the trace elements in these samples. The results suggest that the average concentrations of rare earth elements in river water show an increasing trend from the West River, the North River, the rivers of the Pearl River Delta, and the Shenzhen River to the East River. Relatively high concentrations of heavy metals appear in the East River, the rivers of the Pearl River Delta and the Shenzhen River, while the West River and the North River have relatively low heavy metal concentrations. Trace element concentrations in samples collected near urban or industrial areas are much higher than those of samples collected from distant areas, away from urban and industrial areas. After natural conditions, human activities have significant influence on the trace element concentrations in river water. This trace element concentration’s spatial distribution in the river water from the Pearl River Delta Economic Zone is actually an integrated effect of natural conditions and human activity.     

Potential of High-Resolution Satellite Data in the Context of Vulnerability of Buildings

High-resolution space-borne remote sensing data are investigated for their potential to extract relevant parameters for a vulnerability analysis of buildings in European countries. For an evaluation of large earthquake scenarios, the number of parameters in models for vulnerability is reduced to a minimum of relevant information such as the type of building (age, material, number of storeys) and the geological and spatial context. Building-related parameters can be derived from remote sensing data either directly (e.g. height) or indirectly based on the recognition of the urban structure type in which the buildings are located. With the potential of a fully- or semi-automatic inventory of the buildings and their parameters, high-resolution satellite data and techniques for their processing are a useful supporting tool for the assessment of vulnerability.     

Fast computation of Hankel Transform using orthonormal exponential approximation of complex kernel function

The computation of electromagnetic (EM) fields, for 1-D layered earth model, requires evaluation of Hankel Transform (HT) of the EM kernel function. The digital filtering is the most widely used technique to evaluate HT integrals. However, it has some obvious shortcomings. We present an alternative scheme, based on an orthonormal exponential approximation of the kernel function, for evaluating HT integrals. This approximation of the kernel function was chosen because the analytical solution of HT of an exponential function is readily available in literature. This expansion reduces the integral to a simple algebraic sum. The implementation of such a scheme requires that the weights and the exponents of the exponential function be estimated. The exponents were estimated through a guided search algorithm while the weights were obtained using Marquardt matrix inversion method. The algorithm was tested on analytical HT pairs available in literature. The results are compared with those obtained using the digital filtering technique with Anderson filters. The field curves for four types (A-, K-, H-and Q-type) of 3-layer earth models are generated using the present scheme and compared with the corresponding curves obtained using the Anderson sc heme. It is concluded that the present scheme is more accurate than the Anderson scheme     

On global forces of nature driving the Earth’s climate. Are humans involved?

The authors identify and describe the following global forces of nature driving the Earth’s climate: (1) solar radiation as a dominant external energy supplier to the Earth, (2) outgassing as a major supplier of gases to the World Ocean and the atmosphere, and, possibly, (3) microbial activities generating and consuming atmospheric gases at the interface of lithosphere and atmosphere. The writers provide quantitative estimates of the scope and extent of their corresponding effects on the Earth’s climate. Quantitative comparison of the scope and extent of the forces of nature and anthropogenic influences on the Earth’s climate is especially important at the time of broad-scale public debates on current global warming. The writers show that the human-induced climatic changes are negligible.     

The geography of suicide terrorism in Israel

Palestinian suicide terrorism has been a key feature in the latest phase of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. During the past decade, and particularly since September 2000, there has been a substantial increase in the use of this type of warfare. Recent studies suggest that, contrary to common belief, suicide terrorism is highly rational and driven by strategic considerations. This article explores the rationality of Palestinian suicide terrorism from a geographical perspective. It is argued that suicide terrorism works along two parallel paths: rationality and randomness. It complies with geographical fundamentals, and target selection is highly rational, subject to spatial considerations such as distance, agglomeration, and accessibility. As the permeability to Israel became more difficult, suicide bombers and their organizers had to adopt more flexible practices which emphasized other spatial considerations. Timing is of importance both for strategic and tactical reasoning. Obstructing negotiations and peace talks has been a salient objective, but the exact timing of suicide bombings has been influenced by tactical considerations, which aim at maximizing casualties.     

江西省宜春城区地面塌陷特征及防治建议

宜春城区属岗阜低丘地形,分布石炭系-二叠系覆盖型及裸露型碳酸盐岩,占城区面积近70%。浅部岩溶发育,覆盖层厚度一般小于20m,土洞较多,基岩面起伏大,第四系岩性结构复杂,地下水埋藏浅。由于抽采地下水及建筑施工振动等人为因素影响,诱发地面塌陷12处,造成重大经济损失。在城市规划功能布局时应充分考虑地面塌陷的易发程度及场地建设适宜性;应限制诱发塌陷因素的强度,在易发区须严格控制地下水开采,严禁新建开采井;塌陷治理的主要方法有填堵、跨越、灌注、深基础控制抽排水强度、及其它综合治理或避让方法,同时做好灾害的监测预报工作。     

福建平潭虎潮山滑坡成因机理分析与评价

虎潮山滑坡位于平宏公路12k 704~12k 884段北侧山坡体上,是平潭海岛通往陆地的唯一公路通道。论文通过定性的工程地质分析和定量计算评价了虎潮山坡体稳定性的变化趋势,提出改建公路超挖深切坡脚和持续长时间强降雨导致的孔隙水压力作用是边坡发生滑动破坏的主要因素。     

采矿引起的边坡倾倒滑移变形机理与变形安全性分析研究—以抚顺西露天矿边坡为例

在矿山开发、水电建设过程中倾倒变形问题日渐突出。倾倒变形边坡一般具有反倾边坡结构,变形的过程和机理比较复杂、涉及的变形岩体范围较大、危害严重。论文以抚顺西露天矿边坡为例,通过岩体位移监测资料的跟踪分析、底面摩擦模拟试验,以岩体力学、松散介质力学原理为理论基础,探讨了采矿影响下边坡倾倒滑移体的变形机理,分析认为采矿引起的倾倒滑移变形问题是在特定的地质构造和采矿工程条件下产生的,并提出了岩体变形安全性分析方法。通过工程实例,验证了方法的实用性,并针对实际问题提出了变形整治对策。