Monthly suspended sediment load prediction using artificial intelligence: testing of a new random subspace method

ABSTRACT

The predictive capability of a new artificial intelligence method, random subspace (RS), for the prediction of suspended sediment load in rivers was compared with commonly used methods: random forest (RF) and two support vector machine (SVM) models using a radial basis function kernel (SVM-RBF) and a normalized polynomial kernel (SVM-NPK). Using river discharge, rainfall and river stage data from the Haraz River, Iran, the results revealed: (a) the RS model provided a superior predictive accuracy (NSE = 0.83) to SVM-RBF (NSE = 0.80), SVM-NPK (NSE = 0.78) and RF (NSE = 0.68), corresponding to very good, good, satisfactory and unsatisfactory accuracies in load prediction; (b) the RBF kernel outperformed the NPK kernel; (c) the predictive capability was most sensitive to gamma and epsilon in SVM models, maximum depth of a tree and the number of features in RF models, classifier type, number of trees and subspace size in RS models; and (d) suspended sediment loads were most closely correlated with river discharge (PCC = 0.76). Overall, the results show that RS models have great potential in data poor watersheds, such as that studied here, to produce strong predictions of suspended load based on monthly records of river discharge, rainfall depth and river stage alone.     

The effects of rock uplift and rock resistance on river morphology in a subduction zone forearc,Oregon, USA

Relationships between riverbed morphology, concavity, rock type and rock uplift rate are examined to independently unravel the contribution of along-strike variations in lithology and rates of vertical deformation to the topographic relief of the Oregon coastal mountains. Lithologic control on river profile form is reflected by convexities and knickpoints in a number of longitudinal profiles and by general trends of concavity as a function of lithology. Volcanic and sedimentary rocks are the principal rock types underlying the northern Oregon Coast Ranges (between 46°30′ and 45°N) where mixed bedrock–alluvial channels dominate. Average concavity, θ, is 0·57 in this region. In the alluviated central Oregon Coast Ranges (between 45° and 44°N) values of concavity are, on average, the highest (θ = 0·82). South of 44°N, however, bedrock channels are common and θ = 0·73. Mixed bedrock–alluvial channels characterize rivers in the Klamath Mountains (from 43°N south; θ = 0·64). Rock uplift rates of ≥0·5 mm a⁻¹, mixed bedrock–alluvial channels, and concavities of 0·53–0·70 occur within the northernmost Coast Ranges and Klamath Mountains. For rivers flowing over volcanic rocks θ = 0·53, and θ = 0·72 for reaches crossing sedimentary rocks. Whereas channel type and concavity generally co-vary with lithology along much of the range, rivers between 44·5° and 43°N do not follow these trends. Concavities are generally greater than 0·70, alluvial channels are common, and river profiles lack knickpoints between 44·5° and 44°N, despite the fact that lithology is arguably invariant. Moreover, rock uplift rates in this region vary from low, ≤0·5 mm a⁻¹, to subsidence (<0 mm a⁻¹). These observations are consistent with models of transient river response to a decrease in uplift rate. Conversely, the rivers between 44° and 43°N have similar concavities and flow on the same mapped bedrock unit as the central region, but have bedrock channels and irregular longitudinal profiles, suggesting the river profiles reflect a transient response to an increase in uplift rate. If changes in rock uplift rate explain the differences in river profile form and morphology, it is unlikely that rock uplift and erosion are in steady state in the Oregon coastal mountains. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Feature based image processing methods applied to bathymetric measurements from airborne remote sensing in fluvial environments

Bathymetric maps produced from remotely sensed imagery are increasingly common. However, when this method is applied to fluvial environments, changing scenes and illumination variations severely hinder the application of well established empirical calibration methods used to obtain predictive depth–colour relationships. In this paper, illumination variations are corrected with feature based image processing, which is used to identify areas in an image with a near‐zero water depth. This information can then be included in the depth–colour calibration process, which results in an improved prediction quality. The end product is an automated bathymetric mapping method capable of a 4 m² spatial resolution with a precision of ±15 cm, which allows for a more widespread application of bathymetric mapping. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

青岛市崂山区地质灾害气象预报预警

本文基于地质灾害递进分析理论与方法，进行了崂山区地质灾害气象预报预警探讨。崂山区地质灾害及隐患点发育的类型主要是滑坡、崩塌和泥石流。据调查，区内地质灾害及隐患点83处，其中已发生灾害17处，新的灾害隐患66处。崂山区地质灾害基础因子主要是地形坡度、地质构造、地面高程、岩体、植被、水系和坡形，诱发因：于主要是大气降水、人类工程活动和地震。大气降水是变化频繁的敏感因子。通过分析崂山区日降水量、持续累计降水量与地质环境条件、地质灾害发生频率、发生时间的关系，结合国内其他地区的分析结论，初步选定崂山区地质灾害预报预警降水量临界值，在此基础上建立了崂山区地质灾害预报预警信息系统，并以图形和表格两种形式在网上对外发布成功。通过回访调查，预报基本准确，服务效果明显，在很大程度上减轻和避免了灾害损失，有效地保护了人民生命财产的安全，促进了经济、社会的持续、稳定、健康发展。     

辽,金,元测绘史考（下）

概述辽、金、元三代有关测绘的管理和机构,职官设置,各类测绘状况及成果,着重介绍了元代的测绘技术,发明创造及著述。     

Silicate and carbonate weathering in the drainage basins of the Ganga-Ghaghara-Indus head waters: Contributions to major ion and Sr isotope geochemistry

The role of silicate and carbonate weathering in contributing to the major cation and Sr isotope geochemistry of the headwaters of the Ganga-Ghaghara-Indus system is investigated from the available data. The contributions from silicate weathering are determined from the composition of granites/ gneisses, soil profiles developed from them and from the chemistry of rivers flowing predominantly through silicate terrains. The chemistry of Precambrian carbonate outcrops of the Lesser Himalaya provided the data base to assess the supply from carbonate weathering. Mass balance calculations indicate that on an average ∼ 77% (Na + K) and ∼ 17% (Ca + Mg) in these rivers is of silicate origin. The silicate Sr component in these waters average ∼40% and in most cases it exceeds the carbonate Sr. The observations that (i) the⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and Sr/Ca in the granites/gneisses bracket the values measured in the head waters; (ii) there is a strong positive correlation between⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr of the rivers and the silicate derived cations in them, suggest that silicate weathering is a major source for the highly radiogenic Sr isotope composition of these source waters. The generally low⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (< 0.720) and Sr/Ca (∼ 0.2 nM/ μM) in the Precambrian carbonate outcrops rules them out as a major source of Sr and⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr in the headwaters on a basin-wide scale, however, the high⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (∼ 0.85) in a few of these carbonates suggests that they can be important for particular streams. The analysis of⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and Ca/Sr data of the source waters show that they diverge from a low⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and low Ca/Sr end member. The high Ca/Sr of the Precambrian carbonates precludes them from being this end member, other possible candidates being Tethyan carbonates and Sr rich evaporite phases such as gypsum and celestite. The results of this study should find application in estimating the present-day silicate and carbonate weathering rates in the Himalaya and associated CO₂ consumption rates and their global significance.     

Modelling flow resistance in vegetated streams: review and development of new theory

Aquatic macrophytes are often the dominant factor influencing flow conditions within the channels they occupy. Existing knowledge of how stream plants affect the flow is outlined, and the different scales at which vegetation resistance operates are proposed. Resistance is shown to be a function of the size of the plants, their structural properties, location in the channel, and the local flow conditions. Current models to calculate this composite resistance effect are assessed in the light of theoretical considerations of the nature of vegetation resistance. New theory is also presented, which demonstrates the non‐linear relationship between channel resistance and the proportion of the channel occupied by vegetation. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

传统星座的五帝座考证

中国传统星座中的紫微垣五帝内座和太微垣五帝座,都是古人为天上最高统治者天帝,在一年不同的五时处于不同方位处理政务而设的坐位。将五帝座作黄帝和四方之帝的坐位是“纬书”类的附会,与星座命名的本义相悖,由此造成不必要的混乱,一直延续至今,因此就有必要进行考证,给予澄清。     

The Quaternary history of the Wash fluvial network, UK

This paper appraises and compares the Middle-Upper Pleistocene sedimentary sequences preserved in the fluvial systems draining into the Fenland Basin and the Wash estuary. Of the main Fenland rivers the longest records, which extend back to the initial Anglian (glacial) formation of the basin, are found in the Great Ouse and its tributaries, particularly the Cam and the Nar. These sequences preserve sediments representing all four post-Anglian interglacials. The Nene also has an extensive post-Anglian history, with evidence for a Hoxnian estuary that is presumed to have been the precursor of the Wash. North of the Nene, however, the Welland and Witham (proto-Trent) have relatively short sequences, which are thought to commence with a later (post-Anglian-pre-Devensian) glaciation that affected Lincolnshire and fed the previously-recognized Tottenhill outwash delta south of Kings Lynn. Prior to Devensian deglaciation the Witham valley was occupied by the Trent, which was the trunk river of the late Middle Pleistocene Wash system. During periods of low sea level the river would have extended north-eastwards across what is now the floor of the North Sea, possibly via the Inner Silver Pit. Several of the central Fenland sequences show evidence of infrequent terrace formation during the late Quaternary, although this might in part be due to poor vertical separation between terraces, so that differentiating them has been difficult; this has been exacerbated by mixed biostratigraphical signals due to the preservation of sediments representing more than one interglacial beneath a single terrace surface. In several of the systems there is evidence for valley rejuvenation to the lowest terrace or valley-floor level during the MIS 4-3 transition. The observed differences within what, during the predominant periods of lower sea level, would have been a single Wash river system are difficult to explain.     

基于微分对策理论的多沙河流水库调度

水库的排沙问题一直是多沙河流水库调度研究的重点之一。由于大部分多沙河流的来水来沙主要集中于汛期,因此水库汛期的蓄水兴利与泄水排沙的矛盾十分突出,具有典型的博弈关系,该关系可以利用博弈的相关理论进行描述。基于微分对策理论,将多沙河流水库汛期的供水兴利与泄水排沙看作博弈的双方,建立起以排沙和供水的综合效益作为性能指标函数的多沙河流水库汛期调度模型,研究了多沙河流水库汛期的调度问题,并通过陕西黑河某水库的实测资料对该模型进行了验证计算。计算结果表明,建立的调度模型能够较好地反映多沙河流水库汛期调度中的主要矛盾,实现对供水与排沙综合效益的优化。