亚洲新兴经济体服务贸易竞争力比较研究——基于亚洲“四小龙”服务贸易数据分析

本文采用服务贸易国际竞争力常用评价指标体系,对亚洲新兴经济体一亚洲“四小龙”的服务贸易国际竞争力进行了比较分析。研究表明：中国香港的服务贸易国际竞争力最强,优势部门为运输和金融;新加坡服务贸易发展最为迅速;中国台湾和韩国服务贸易处于较低水平,但韩国的政府服务遥遥领先,建筑业已处于世界先进水平。在此基础上,提出应加强亚洲“四小龙”的服务贸易合作,形成优势互补,提高国际竞争力。     

中国地级及以上城市“四化”协调发展效率的时空分异测度

以中国343个地级及以上行政单元为研究对象,运用数据包络分析和探索性空间数据分析,研究了2001年和2011年 “四化”协调发展及其效率的空间差异变化,借助地理加权回归模型揭示“四化”协调发展效率的影响因素及其空间差异。结果显示,中国地级单元2001年和2011年的“四化”协调发展及其效率均存在显著的空间分异,综合指数、耦合度和协调度空间差异呈现以西北-东南走向的“反胡焕庸线”为分界的态势。“四化”协调发展效率整体较低,效率值较高的地区集中在中部地区,达到“有效”状态的城市极少。10 a间平均效率值总体降低 ,高值区逐渐向东部沿海地区转移。城乡人均固定资产投资差异、人均GDP和人均社会消费品零售总额是影响“四化”协调发展效率的重要因素。     

Problems of reservoir sedimentation in China

As there are many heavily sediment-laden rivers in China, with high sediment concentration and a large quantity of sediment load, the sedimentation problems of the reservoirs built on those rivers are so serious that the amount of sediment deposited in the reservoirs is great and the rate of sedimentation is accelerated. According to the statistics, up to the end of 1981, a total amount of 11.5×10⁹m³ of sediment were accumulated in those reservoirs, i.e. 14.2% of the total designed capacity were lost. The average annual loss in storage capacity reached 2.3 percent, being the highest in the world. Silting of impounding lakes not only has an effect on the benefits of the reservoirs and seriously threatens the life of reservoirs, but also results in many environmental problems which were not fully estimated in the planning of the reservoirs. In this paper, the situation of reservoir deposition in China are described from the following aspects: 1) the characteristics of hydrology and sediment of the rivers; 2) the seriousness of reservoir sedimentation in China; 3) problems caused by reservoir deposition; 4) the methods of minimizing sediment deposition, etc.     

Eco-environment range in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers

Based on geographical and hydrological extents delimited, four principles are identified, as the bases for delineating the ranges of the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers in the paper. According to the comprehensive analysis of topographical characteristics, climate conditions, vegetation distribution and hydrological features, the source region ranges for eco-environmental study are defined. The eastern boundary point is Dari hydrological station in the upper reach of the Yellow River. The watershed above Dari hydrological station is the source region of the Yellow River which drains an area of 4.49×104 km2. Natural environment is characterized by the major topographical types of plateau lakes and marshland, gentle landforms, alpine cold semi-arid climate, and steppe and meadow vegetation in the source region of the Yellow River. The eastern boundary point is the convergent site of the Nieqiaqu and the Tongtian River in the upstream of the Yangtze River. The watershed above the convergent site is the source region of the Yangtze River, with a watershed area of 12.24×104 km2. Hills and alpine plain topography, gentle terrain, alpine cold arid and semi-arid climate, and alpine cold grassland and meadow are natural conditions in the source region of the Yangtze River.     

中国主要江河径流变化成因定量分析

变化环境下中国主要江河实测径流量发生了较为明显的变化，科学理清径流变化原因是流域水资源评价和管理的重要基础工作。基于中国七大江河代表性水文站1956—2018年的实测径流量资料，诊断了变化环境下水文序列的变异性特征；采用水文模拟途径，定量评估了不同驱动要素对径流变化的影响。结果表明：①淮河、长江和珠江实测径流量变异性特征不明显，相比而言，北方主要江河实测年径流量系列存在较为明显的突变性，但最显著的变异点发生时间存在差异，变异前后降水径流关系发生较大变化。② RCCC-WBM模型能够较好模拟中国南方湿润区和北方干旱区江河天然径流量过程，该模型可以用来还原人类活动影响期间的天然径流量。③总体来看，人类活动对中国北方江河径流量的影响大于气候变化的影响，气候变化是中国淮河及其以南江河径流变化的主要原因。     

Tree‐ring records unveil long‐term influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on snowpack dynamics in the Stikine River basin,northern British Columbia

Long hydroclimate records are essential elements for the assessment and management of changing freshwater resources. These records are especially important in transboundary watersheds where international cooperation is required in the joint planning and management process of shared basins. Dendrochronological techniques were used to develop a multicentury record of April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) for the Stikine River basin in northern British Columbia, Canada, from moisture‐sensitive white spruce (Picea glauca) tree rings. Explaining 43% of the instrumental SWE variability, to our knowledge, this research represents the first attempt to develop long‐term snowpack reconstructions in northern British Columbia. The results indicated that 15 extreme low April 1 SWE events occurred from 1789 to the beginning of the instrumental record in 1974. The reconstruction record also shows that the occurrence of hydrological extremes in the Stikine River basin is characterized by persistent below‐average periods in SWE consistent with phase shifts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Spectral analyses indicate a very distinct in‐phase (positive) relationship between the multidecadal frequencies of variability (~40 years) extracted from the SWE tree‐ring reconstruction and other reconstructed winter and spring PDO indices. Comparison of the reconstructed SWE record with other tree‐ring‐derived PDO proxy records shows coherence at multidecadal frequencies of variability. The research has significant implications for regional watershed management by highlighting the hydrological response of the Stikine River basin to prior climate changes.     

Understanding the effect of catchment characteristics on suspended sediment dynamics during flood events

Hysteresis in the relationship between suspended sediment concentration and flow during run-off events is commonly used to inform on sediment sources and hydrological pathways. Less attention, however, has been paid to comparing the water and sediment hydrographs, which provide a more direct appreciation of in-event sediment dynamics and their relationship with the upstream catchment characteristics. The aim of this study is to better understand the catchment and hydrological controls on the phasing of water and sediment discharges during events and, in particular, to explore what controls sediment concentrations late on event recessions. Continuous records of flow and turbidity data (calibrated to suspended sediment concentration) were collected from 17 catchments across New Zealand for this purpose. Relationships between event sediment yield and peak flow showed, as anticipated, higher event sediment loads were generated in pasture compared with forested catchments and were also higher from catchments in more erodible terrain. One novel result was that these differences were greater during smaller, more frequent events, whereas the loads from larger flood events tended to converge between pasture and forest catchments. Another novel result was that event sediment load tends to be evenly split between rising and falling stages of the hydrograph in pasture catchments, but forested catchments yield more of their event loads on flood recessions, probably because of delayed erosion or more sediment sources remote from the channel network. Land cover, distance of the sediment sources from the monitoring site, and size of the catchments control sediment concentrations late on event recession. Pasture-dominated and more erodible catchments show longer sediment recessions and therefore stay dirtier for longer time periods. In addition, the size of previous flood events appeared to control the extent of sediment exhaustion after the flood peaks in some catchments.     

Unravelling the conundrum of river response to rising sea‐level from laboratory to field. Part II. The Fly–Strickland River system,Papua New Guinea

The most recent deglaciation resulted in a global sea‐level rise of some 120 m over ca 12 000 years. A moving boundary numerical model is developed to predict the response of rivers to this rise. The model was motivated by experiments at small scale, which have identified two modes describing the transgression of a river mouth: (i) autoretreat without abandonment of the river delta (no sediment starvation at the topset–foreset break); and (ii) sediment‐starved autoretreat with abandonment of the delta. In the latter case, transgression is far more rapid, and its effects are felt much further upstream of the river mouth. A moving boundary numerical model that captures these features in experimental deltas is adapted to describe the response of the Fly–Strickland River system, Papua New Guinea. In the absence of better information, the model is applied to the case of sea‐level rise without local climate change in New Guinea. The model suggests that: (i) sea‐level rise has forced the river mouth to transgress over 700 km since the last glacial maximum; (ii) sediment‐starved autoretreat has forced enough bed aggradation to block a tributary with a low sediment load and create the present‐day Lake Murray; (iii) the resulting aggradation was sufficient to move the gravel–sand transition on the Strickland River upstream; (iv) the present‐day Fly Estuary may be, in part, a relict river valley drowned by sea‐level rise and partially filled by tidal effects; and (v) the Fly River is presently reforming its bankfull geometry and prograding into the Fly Estuary. A parametric study with the model indicates that sediment concentration during floods plays a key role in determining whether or not, and to what extent, transgression is expressed in terms of sediment‐starved autoretreat. A sufficiently high sediment concentration can prevent sediment‐starved autoretreat during the entire sea‐level cycle. This observation may explain why some present‐day river mouths are expressed in terms of deltas protruding into the sea, and others are wholly contained within embayments or estuaries in which water has invaded landward.     

Uplift along the western margin of the Deccan Basalt Province: Is there any geomorphometric evidence?

In line with the passive margin landscape evolutionary model in vogue, sustained erosion and long-distance retreat of the Western Ghat escarpment are widely considered to be the results of erosionally-driven isostatic uplift since Tertiary by many workers. Others have postulated or adduced evidence for strong neotectonic activity in the Ghat region. An obvious question in this regard is whether there is any geomorphometric evidence in support of this widespread view? In order to test the hypothesis of ongoing post-rift fexural uplift or neotectonic activity in the western Deccan Basalt Province (DBP), geomorphometric analysis was carried out and commonly used geomorphic indices of active tectonics (GAT) were derived for 30 selected river basins on both sides of the Western Ghat. SRTM-DEM data and ArcGIS were used to derive the indices. Tectonic geomorphic analysis based on five proxy indicators suggests that the differences in GAT indices, both along strike and across the Western Ghat, are statistically insignificant. The index values are nowhere close to the GAT values typically associated with drainage basins affected by active tectonics and deformation. Mapping of the indices reveals lack of discernable trends. The adduced results indicate that the western DBP belongs to the class of relatively low tectonic activity.     

基于MATLAB工具箱的BP神经网络年径流量预测模型研究——以塔城地区乌拉斯台河为例

塔城地区独特的地形为西来水汽的输送提供了条件,从而形成了众多中小河流,而中低山带季节性积雪的消融又使河流呈现出春汛汛的特点,使得径流年内分配不均,对塔城地区水资源配置极为不利,开展径流量的预测研究,将为水资源的优化配置提供科学的理论基础.文章以塔城地区乌拉斯台河为例,根据其年径流量(1966-1995年)序列的长期变化特征,利用MATLAB的神经网络工具箱提供的许多有关神经网络设计、训练以及仿真的函数,实现BP网络对年径流量的预测研究.从模型的检验来看,所建模型具有较好的适应性和预报精度,并且拟合效果较好,说明这种预测方法有一定的实用性.