Controls on suspended‐sediment transfer at a high‐arctic glacier,determined from statistical modelling

Simple linear regression models have been widely employed in the analysis of suspended‐sediment concentration (SSC) time series from glacierized catchments, although they have many limitations. This paper builds regression models which address these shortcomings and permit inferences concerning the controls on suspended‐sediment transfer from a glacier at 78°N in the Svalvard archipelago. A bivariate regression model, deterministically predicting SSC from discharge alone, explained less than 15 per cent of the variance in SSC. A multivariate model, incorporating additional potentially explanatory variables, offered little improvement. Diurnal hysteresis in the data gives rise to quasi‐autocorrelation in the residual series from regression models. This was effectively removed by incorporating dummy diurnal variables into the multivariate model. The presence of a first‐order autoregressive, stochastic process gives rise to true autocorrelation in the residual series from regression models. This was accommodated by incorporating an ARIMA (1,0,0) term into a multivariate autoregression model. The model‐building process yielded a systematic progression in the explanation of variance in SSC, stripping away pattern in the autocorrelation function of the residual series; mean model error was reduced from 54 per cent to 6 per cent. The dependence of SSC on the magnitude of discharge is weak and highly variable, whereas the dependence of current SSC on recent values of SSC, revealed through the stochastic term, is an order of magnitude greater and relatively constant during the melt season. The dominant control on SSC throughout the melt season is therefore short‐term sediment availability. The simple and largely unchanging stochastic process generally responsible for generating the observed SSC series implies a simple and unchanging glacier drainage system. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predictive optimal control for seismic analysis of non-linear and hysteretic structures

In this paper, an effective active predictive control algorithm is developed for the vibration control of non-linear hysteretic structural systems subjected to earthquake excitation. The non-linear characteristics of the structural behaviour and the effects of time delay in both the measurements and control action are included throughout the entire analysis (design and validation). This is very important since, in current design practice, structures are assumed to behave non-linearly, and time delays induced by sensors and actuator devices are not avoidable. The proposed algorithm focuses on the instantaneous optimal control approach for the development of a control methodology where the non-linearities are brought into the analysis through a non-linear state vector and a non-linear open-loop term. An autoregressive (AR) model is used to predict the earthquake excitation to be considered in the prediction of the structural response. A performance index that is quadratic in the control force and in the predicted non-linear states, with two additional energy related terms, and that is subjected to a non-linear constraint equation, is minimized at every time step. The effectiveness of the proposed closed-open loop non-linear instantaneous optimal prediction control (CONIOPC) strategy is presented by the results of numerical simulations. Since non-linearity and time-delay effects are incorporated in the mathematical model throughout the derivation of the control methodology, good performance and stability of the controlled structural system are guaranteed. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

线性关联滞后广义大系统的变结构控制

研究了一类线性关联滞后广义大系统的变结构控制综合问题.首先根据系统的结构和控制输入的特定形式,引入了1种新的受限系统等价分解形式,把每个子系统分解成2个低维的动态子系统：1个是不带控制项的线性关联微分差分系统,另1个是带有控制项的线性关联差分系统.然后设计了带有积分动态补偿器的切换函数, 给出了滑动模渐近稳定的充分条件.最后设计了可以保证系统的解的轨迹到达切换流形的多层分散变结构控制.这种控制对物理上分散等类型的线性关联滞后广义系统是合理的有效的.     

关于干旱监测评估指标的一种新探讨

从有效降水过程观点入手,针对降水过程次数、降水过程总量,尤其是降水过程的时间分布结构和效能,提出了一种新的干旱指数式。该结果在干旱研究分析、监测评估业务和决策服务中都有实用意义。     

East Asia winter monsoon variations on a millennial time‐scale before the last glacial–interglacial cycle

Grain size and magnetic susceptibility measurements on samples from a typical loess–palaeosol sequence on the central Chinese Loess Plateau are used to reconstruct the Pleistocene East Asian monsoon climate. The coarse‐grained fraction, i.e. the weight percentage > 30 μm of the bulk grain‐size distribution, is used as a sensitive proxy index of the East Asia winter monsoon strength. On the basis of an absolute time‐scale, time‐series variations of this proxy show that winter monsoon strengths varied on millennial time‐scales during the periods 145–165, 240–280, 320–350, 390–440, 600–640, 860–890, 900–930 and 1330–1400 kyr BP. The wavelength of these climatic oscillations varied between 1.89 and 4.0 kyr, as is shown by spectral analysis using the multitaper method. Although numerical simulation experiments show that high frequencies also can arise from measurement errors in the grain‐size analysis, the frequencies prove to be sufficiently stable when the spectral analysis is repeated with a different number of tapers. For the time being, we do not correlate these climatic oscillations with palaeoclimatic records in the North Atlantic deep‐sea sediments because both time‐scales need to be further improved. Our data, however, certainly demonstrate that millennial‐scale East Asian winter monsoon variations in the last 1.4 million years can be detected from terrestrial loess records. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

粉质黏土填料在K30试验加载进程中的变形时间效应状态分析

变形稳定标准和分级加载制度是影响K30试验效率和准确性的关键因素,与加载进程中填土的变形时间效应状态密切相关。开展了3组最优含水率下压实系数K分别为0.90、0.95和1.00填土模型的小型平板载荷试验,获得了不同荷载作用下填土变形时程曲线和弹塑性变形数据,讨论了在K30试验加载进程中填土变形状态的变化及其对加载稳定时间的影响。试验表明：良好压实的粉质黏土填料,在K30试验进程中的变形以弹性为主,处于缓慢收敛状态,随着加载级数增加,塑性变形比例逐渐增大,变形时间效应呈现出由微弱进入明显状态的演化趋势,变形1.25 mm对应于缓慢收敛中的微弱时间效应亚状态;“变形速率不超过0.01 mm/min”变形稳定标准分级加载时间随时间效应指数呈加速增长规律,能在保证试验精度的基础上提高试验效率;以最大荷载下填土变形时间效应不应超过显著状态、变形量不小于1.25 mm为约束条件,针对5级加载、0.04 MPa荷载增量的加载制度,可得K30试验的适宜范围为60～160 MPa/m。     

硫酸盐渍土含水率单次递减条件下的盐胀特性

为探究硫酸盐渍土在含水率递减下的盐胀特性,通过自主设计的试验装置,在室内开展了11组含水率单次递减下的盐胀试验,共历时2 868 h。结果表明：在含水率单次递减下硫酸盐渍土的起胀含盐量约为1.2%。含盐量<1.2%时,土体干缩,干缩量与含盐量近似呈下凸的二次抛物线规律,且干缩峰值含盐量约为0.5%;含盐量≥1.2%时,土体膨胀,且盐胀率与含盐量近似呈线性增大规律。盐胀敏感含水率区间受含盐量影响很小,含盐量从1.5%增至4.0%,盐胀敏感含水率区间基本稳定。此外,含水率递减速率与含盐量呈负相关规律,同一含盐量的硫酸盐渍土,其含水率的递减速率随含水率的降低亦减慢。基于以上试验结果,进一步开展了4组单次降温下的盐胀对比试验,结果表明：含盐量升高时,起胀温度区间逐渐升高,盐胀敏感温度区间的区间范围逐渐扩大。单次降温下的盐胀率均高于含水率单次递减下的盐胀率,且随着含盐量的升高两试验条件下的盐胀率差值趋于一常数。研究结果对西北地区高含盐量的残余型硫酸盐渍土地基的盐胀性评价具有重要指导意义。     

考虑间歇充填和浓度效应的充填体长期强度试验研究

为探究不同充填间隔时间(FTS)和料浆浓度对胶结充填体长期强度影响机制,配制70%、72%、75%三个浓度、充填间隔时间为12、24、36、48 h的两分层胶结充填体试件,开展单轴抗压强度(UCS)试验并探究其力学特性及其破坏形式。试验结果表明,（1）胶结充填体峰值抗压强度随充填间隔时间增大而呈递减趋势,充填间隔时间一定时胶结充填体抗压强度随料浆浓度增大而增大,且峰值抗压强度与充填间隔时间呈多项式函数规律;（2）胶结充填体试件加载过程中表现为压密阶段、线弹性阶段、裂纹扩展阶段和破坏发展4个阶段,随充填间隔时间延长,胶结充填体的破坏形式可能表现为张拉破坏–拉剪破坏过渡–拉剪混合破坏的损伤模式。研究结论能够为后期充填体强度设计和稳定性控制提供有益参考。     

东非鲁武马盆地始新统超深水重力流砂岩储层特征及成因

鲁武马盆地古近系-新近系发育多套超深水、超大型、富含天然气藏的重力流沉积砂体。以始新统砂体为解剖对象,分析区内重力流砂岩储层特征及成因。结果表明砂体以巨厚层状产出于深海泥岩内部,并与周围泥岩截然接触,测井曲线表现出宏观均一性;岩心揭示此类巨厚砂体是由多期单砂体叠置而成,单砂体是由底部高密度颗粒流和顶部低密度浊流两部分组成,且经历过强底流改造。鲁武马河流三角洲强大物源供给决定了区内砂体分布面积和体积规模;深海滑塌、块体搬运等重力流沉积过程控制了沉积体粒序构造和内部结构;海底区域性强底流持续冲刷并携带走单砂体顶部细粒沉积物,残留了底部“干净”的中粗粒砂岩;多期沉积事件和频繁水道迁移决定了砂体纵、横向叠加展布,并最终形成了区内厚度巨大、岩性宏观均一且连通性极好的超大型深水重力流沉积砂岩储层。     

长江三角洲地区TZK3孔碎屑锆石U-Pb年龄及其物源意义

以TZK3孔的磁性地层学为基础,结合沉积物的岩性、结构构造及锆石年龄谱系特征,探讨沉积物的物质来源及长江贯通的时限。古地磁结果表明:96.7 m、263.3 m、603.75 m分别对应B/M界线、M/G界线、晚上新世/早上新世的界线（3.58 Ma）。锆石年龄谱系数据显示,TZK3孔的U-Pb锆石年龄主要分为5组:100~300 Ma,400~500 Ma,700~850 Ma,1800~2000 Ma,2400~2600 Ma。其中3.7 Ma的锆石年龄谱相对简单,以白垩纪（100~150 Ma）为主,物质主要来自于长江中下游的火山盆地,为近源沉积。TZK3孔3.04 Ma以来,锆石年龄谱变得复杂且主峰相对较多,表明物源区更广且加入了远源的成分。3.04 Ma的锆石年龄谱中开始出现峨眉山玄武岩年龄段（251~260 Ma）的锆石,表明在此时期长江上游的物质就已到达了长江三角洲地区,即长江贯通的时限为3.04~3.7 Ma。