Representing and communicating deep uncertainty in climate-change assessments

IPCC reports provide a synthesis of the state of the science in order to inform the international policy process. This task is made difficult by the presence of deep uncertainty in the climate problem that results from long time scales and complexity. This paper focuses on how deep uncertainty can be effectively communicated. We argue that existing schemes do an inadequate job of communicating deep uncertainty and propose a simple approach that distinguishes between various levels of subjective understanding in a systematic manner. We illustrate our approach with two examples. To cite this article: M. Kandlikar et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

葛洲坝至胭脂坝长江干流段江豚活动规律

长江江豚是我国一级保护野生动物,也是长江生态系统的指示性物种,其种群数量恢复情况及活动规律一直备受关注。本文选择长江宜昌段江豚活动频繁的葛洲坝下游至胭脂坝江段为研究区域,于2021年6月-2022年5月采用定点目测、水上流动监测与无人机监测相结合的方法分区监测长江江豚的游泳行为,分析长江江豚的活动规律,构建了长江江豚出水头次的零膨胀泊松回归模型,识别影响长江江豚出水头次的关键因素,建立长江江豚出水头次与各因素间的相关关系。结果表明:(1)葛洲坝至胭脂坝长江干流段监测到最大江豚出水头次为19头次,长江江豚集群规模以2~3头最为常见,占比达58.1%;长江江豚主要表现出4种行为特征,各行为占比从大到小依次为:玩耍＞休息＞摄食＞抚幼。(2)长江江豚在葛洲坝下游近坝区(A区,葛洲坝至至喜长江大桥)出水头次最多,且在秋冬季节累计出水头次多于春夏季节,冬季累计出水头次最高,达252头次。(3)长江江豚出水头次与电站下泄流量呈显著负相关;浊度增大,长江江豚出水的概率减小。本文研究结果对长江江豚生态保护策略及长江十年禁渔效果评估具有重要参考价值。     

Cloning and characterization of glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase encoding gene inGracilaria/Gracilariopsis lemaneiformis

Glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase （GAPDH） plays important roles in various cellular processes. A cytosolic GAPDH encoding gene （gpd） of Gracilaria/Gracilariopsis lemaneiformis was cloned and characterized. Deduced amino acid sequence of the enzyme of G. lemaneiformis had high homology with those of seven red algae. The 5＇-untranslated regions of the GAPDHs encoding genes of these red algae varied greatly. GAPDHs of these red algae shared the highly conserved glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate dehydrogenase active site ASCTTNCL. However, such active site of Cyanidium caldarium was different from those of the other six algae at the last two residues （CL to LF）, thus the spatial structure of its GAPDH active center may be different from those of the other six. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that GAPDH of G. lemaneiformis might have undergone an evolution similar to those of Porphyra yezoensis, Chondrus crispus, and Gracilaria verrucosa. C. caldarium had a closer evolutionary relationship with Cyanidioschyzon merolae than with Cyanidium sp. Virtual Northern blot analysis revealed that gpd of G. lemaneiformis expressed constitutively, which suggested that it might be house-keeping and could be adapted as an inner control in gene expression analysis of G. lemaneiformis.     

基于GIS的北京山区优势林分生态位分析

应用生态位理论,以北京山区森林资源为研究对象,分析优势林分的空间分布及其资源利用和环境适应能力的差异。基于GIS方法,建立优势林分空间分布数据库以及资源梯度信息数据库,分别采用Levins公式和Smith公式,在水分、热量、光照和土壤质量4维环境因子梯度上测定了研究区8个优势林分的生态位宽度,采用Pianka公式测定生态位重叠。结果表明:Smith公式考虑资源可利用性,得到的生态位宽度更能客观地反映优势林分资源空间利用程度;研究区各优势林分重叠度普遍较大,反映了对环境要求的相似性及资源共享的趋势性。     

Composition of plagioclases in volcanic rocks of King George Island, Antarctica with reference to the petrogenetic significance

Plagioclases occur mainly as phenocrysts in volcanic rocks of King George Island, South Shetland Islands, West Antarctica. In basaltic andesites and andesites of Keller Peninsula and Ullman Spur (Admiralty Bay), they are high structure state labradorite-andesines; and in high-A1 basalts and basaltic andesites of Barton and Weaver peninsulas (Maxwell Bay), they are high structure state bytownite-anorthites.∑REE, La/Yb ratios and δEu values of plagioclases from Admiralty Bay are higher than those from Maxwell Bay. All plagioclases have rather identical chondritenormalized transitional element distribution patterns, probably reflecting that crystal structure rather than composition of plagioclase controls their diversity. Compositions of plagioclases depend chiefly on those of their host rocks, compositional differences of plagioclases reveal that basaltic magmas in the Admiralty Bay area are more evolved than in the Maxwell Bay area.     

广西红土型金矿基本类型及找矿前景分析

广西红土型金矿是90年代初发现的一种新型金矿.文章通过对广西红色风化壳及红土型金矿分布的研究,依据含金红土类型及金矿源体矿化特征将全区红土型金矿划分为7 种基本类型;并结合其成矿环境和控矿条件的剖析,认为广西红土型金矿具有较好的找矿前景,提出碳酸盐岩类、火山岩类及蚀变构造岩类红土型金矿是广西红土型金矿的主攻类型,主攻地区为桂西百色-平果、桂中横县-贵港、桂西南凭祥-崇左等地.     

我国地震预报的战略建议与思考

讨论了我国地震预报面对的问题和困难。认为只有加强以形变为主的前兆观测 ,才能作出地震的短临预报。目前前兆观测的主要问题在于可信度差 ,应把重点放在仪器探头上 ,只有探头提供的信息“源”可靠了 ,后续的采集、传输、预报的“流”才会有坚实的基础。我国现在建立以形变为主的前兆台网的技术条件已经成熟 ,建议建立全国高精度的高、中、低频衔接的前兆物理信息观测网络。     

江西省白血病与地形地貌类型的关系

通过对地形地貌资料4502个数据,白血病死亡调查资料2239例,研究了白血病死亡率与人群生存区的地形地貌类型（山区、丘陵、岗地、平原）的相关性。结果表明,山区、岗地、平原与白血病死亡率有明显的相关性,等级相关系数分别为-0．1963（P＜0．05）,0．2925（P＜0．0025）,0．3122（P＜0．0025）。     

闽西北铅锌矿成矿特征及控矿条件浅析

闽北地区属华南褶皱系的一部分,其中铅、锌为区内优势矿种,广泛分布于前震旦纪变质岩系中,尤其以前震旦纪龙北溪组的黑云斜长变粒岩、云母片岩、石英片岩中最为多见。其成矿特征可分为热液型铅锌矿床、充填交代型铅锌矿床及沉积变质热液叠加型铅锌矿床。其形成受地层、岩浆、构造（以断裂构造为主）控制较为明显,前震旦系变质岩系中的绿片岩、压扭性断裂及前震旦系变质岩系与岩体的接触带及其附近应是本区铅锌矿床找矿的主要方向。     

长岭凹陷潜在地热初步探讨

根据长岭凹陷石油井地温测量和物探资料,从地热形成的4要素——储、盖、通、源以及地热具备的地质特征入手,分析了长岭凹陷潜在着地热资源。目前长岭盆地基本具备了储和盖,需要进一步寻找的是通和源。