中国沿海地区灾害发生的环境和社会经济背景*

本文研究了中国沿海地区灾害发生的自然环境背景,特别讨论了地质构造因素、气候因素和地貌因素对灾害的影响.制定了孕灾环境区划,全区按地貌类型划分为北部平原和南部低山丘陵孕灾区以及10个易灾亚区.分析了灾害发生的社会经济背景,区域承灾能力和人类活动对灾害的影响.最后根据地球系统各圈层相互作用及外部强迫因子对灾害发生的影响,讨论了一般灾害的发生和发展规律.     

复杂地形下地面观测资料同化II. 模式地形与观测站地形高度差异代表性误差

第I部分研究结果(徐枝芳等,2007)表明模式与实际观测站地形高度差异对地面观测资料同化效果有较大影响。此文在MM5_3DVAR同化系统中利用近地层相似理论将地面观测资料进行直接三维变分同化分析,考虑模式与实际观测站地形高度差异对同化效果的影响,提出在地面观测误差中增加地形代表性误差来解决这个问题。研究结果表明:地面资料同化分析时,在其观测误差中加入一项新的误差——地形代表性误差,能较好地解决地面资料同化分析中模式与观测站地形高度差异问题;地面资料参与同化分析,在观测误差中加入与模式和实际观测站地形高度差异大小相关的地形代表性误差时,地面观测值对分析值的影响随着地形高度差异代表性误差的加入而减小,同时又部分地将地面观测信息通过变分分析融进分析场,使得低层分析更接近真实场,且地面资料利用率更高,24小时降水数值预报(模拟)的效果较好。     

菲律宾以西海域的高温暖水与南海夏季风爆发

为了揭示高温暖水在中国南海（文中简称南海）夏季风爆发中所起的作用,依据欧洲中期天气预报中心发布的第5代全球大气海洋再分析资料,发现气候平均意义下印度洋—太平洋暖池中30℃以上高温暖水会在5月出现移位：5月上旬高温暖水出现在孟加拉湾中部,而到下旬消退并移位到南海南部。通过分析局地天气尺度的海洋-大气相互作用过程,揭示了上述高温暖水月内移位的物理机制：在孟加拉湾夏季风爆发后,逐渐增强的潜热释放和减少的短波辐射会导致孟加拉湾高温暖水的面积逐渐缩小;与此同时,在副热带高压影响下,南海菲律宾岛西南高温暖水出现,并因其面积逐渐增大,并与泰国湾的高温暖水共同构成了南海南部的高温暖水。研究发现南海季风爆发几乎都出现在上述高温暖水移位之后,因此孟加拉湾中部和南海南部海表温度的差由正转负可以作为南海季风爆发的先兆。

     

基于变动范围法(RVA)的信江水文改变及生态流量研究

选择信江下游梅港站1950~2010年日径流量,根据流域大型水库界牌枢纽运行时间将梅港站径流序列分为建库前(1953~2001)和建库后(2002~2010)两个时段。采用变动范围法(Range of Variability Approach,简称:RVA)分析水库运行对下游梅港站流域生态水文指标改变度,并分析了信江下游生态流量。研究表明:33个水文指标有22个发生中高度改变,11个指标发生低度改变,其水文综合改变度为0.51,属于中度改变;梅港站生态流量值均在RVA阈值内,基本能够保持河流稳定流量,但2月、7~9月及12月河道生态流量大于RVA下限。可适量增大水库下泄水量,降低对下游河段生态系统的威胁。     

数值模拟法在张掖市东郊水源地保护区划分中的应用

根据张掖东盆地水文地质条件和水源地地下水开发利用现状,采用Visual Modflow4.1软件分别建立地下水水流和水质模型,通过计算污染物污染负荷值确定运移污染质及其初始浓度,在水流模型预测水源地未来开采形成的稳定流畅环境下运行水质模型,模拟计算该污染质在规定时间内到达水源地捕获带的位置,运移100天的范围划定为水源...     

新疆地区地震目录最小完整性震级和台网科学布局研究

地震目录的最小完整性震级M.是地震学中最基础、最重要的研究内容之一,也是地震观测台网效能评估的关键.本文对构造活动剧烈、地震活动水平高、台站地理分布复杂的新疆地区开展M研究,试图为该地区的地震危险性评估和台站科学布局等研究提供参考资料.基于新疆地震台网发展的5个阶段划分,采用基于G-R关系的交互式分析方法,研究了M.的...     

Influence of Rhodolith-Forming Species and Growth-Form on Associated Fauna of Rhodolith Beds in the Central-West Gulf of California, México

Abstract.  Rhodoliths provide a stable and three-dimensional habitat to which other seaweeds and invertebrates can attach. Although ecological factors affecting rhodolith beds have been studied, little is known about the effect of rhodolith species and growth-form on associated fauna. Experiments were conducted at three rhodolith beds in the central-west Gulf of California. Faunal abundance differed significantly in relation to rhodolith-forming species, but no significant differences were observed between different growth-forms. Rhodolith structure differs between the species Lithophyllum margaritae and Neogoniolithon trichotomum , and the combination of structure differences and rhodolith abundances may be responsible of the significant differences in faunal abundance and richness. Crustaceans, polychaetes and molluscs were the most important taxa in all three rhodolith beds. The amphipod species Pontogeneia nasa and the cnidarian Aiptasia sp. were dominant in both rhodolith beds, El Requesón and Isla Coyote, in Bahía Concepción. The Isla Coronados rhodolith bed was dominated by an unidentified harpacticoid copepod (Copepoda sp.1). Rhodolith species is more important than growth-form in determining abundance and richness of the associated fauna. Nevertheless, factors such as wave motion, depth, bioturbation and others should be considered when studying organisms associated with rhodolith beds.     

长山列岛邻近海域鱼类群落功能多样性的季节和空间变化

为查明黄、渤海生态交错带长山列岛邻近海域鱼类功能多样性的时空变化,根据2016−2017年在长山列岛邻近海域开展的鱼类生物资源和环境因子的调查数据,结合食性、营养级、洄游类型、适温性、恢复力和鱼卵类型等13种功能性状,应用群落特征加权平均数指数、功能多样性指数和Spearman秩相关分析等方法,研究了该海域鱼类功能多样性的季节变化、空间格局及其与环境因子的关系。结果表明,春、冬季的优势类群为端位或上位口、生长系数较低、脆弱性较高、恢复力较低、定居或短距离洄游的平扁形、暖温性底层鱼类,夏、秋季表现出更多的功能性状,例如长距离洄游、栖息位置处于中上层、体型为侧扁形和纺锤形等;夏、秋季的功能丰富度指数显著高于春、冬季,功能均匀度指数在春季最高,功能离散度指数在秋季最低且显著低于其他季节;春季功能均匀度指数和春、秋季功能离散度指数均表现出西高东低的分布趋势,夏、冬季的功能丰富度指数和秋季的功能均匀度指数均表现出东高西低的分布趋势;功能多样性指数与环境因子具有一定的相关性。长山列岛邻近海域作为黄、渤海生态交错带,鱼类洄游引起优势功能性状和功能多样性呈现出一定的季节变化,环境因子的变化使得功能多样性的空间格局表现出复杂性、异质性的特点。     

Mechanisms of the southward translation of meddies

Meddies are warm and saline anticyclonic eddies found at the mid-depth of the Mediterranean Outflow in the Eastern North Atlantic. They are observed to move almost southward at average speeds as high as 1.3±0.2 cm s⁻¹. This paper examines a mechanism which accelerates this curious translation to a reasonable speed when combined with nonlinearity and a suitable vertical eddy structure. This mechanism is thepseudo-topographic β effect due to the westward decrease in the thickness of the mid-layer induced by the surface southward mean current. The linear dispersion relation including this effect is shown to account for a quarter of the surface southward mean current or a fifth of the observed southward translation of meddies. Three-layer quasi-geostrophic experiments reveal that the surface southward mean current certainly enhances the southward translation velocity of meddies to a speed in agreement with observation, if the meddy has a current structure of plausible intensity and vertical coherence. In the light of the current-induced pseudo-topographic β effect, previous hypotheses are also re-examined through dynamic arguments together with numerical experiments; they are suggested to have some difficulty either in dynamics or in correspondence with observation. Thus the nonlinear effect due to secondary eddies combined with thecurrent-induced pseudo-topographic β effect is the most likely mechanism responsible for the rapid southward translation of meddies among those examined in the paper.