回溯时间积分格式的有效性研究

采月正压准地转模式作为动力核,用Rossby-Haurwitz波函数作为理想场,同时使用回溯时间积分格式和普通中央差格式进行数值试验.结果表明,在短时积分的情况下,回溯格式能减小数值解误差1～2个量级,而且它对时间步长的增大不敏感.因此使用回溯格式可以减少积分计算量,延长积分时效.     

铁路沿线灾害性天气监测、预测、预警系统

针对铁路三防（防风，防沙，防洪）的需要，结合大风监测系统建设的实际，对恶劣天气气候条件下，如何保障列车运行安全进行了探讨，并提出铁路沿线灾害性天气监测，预测，预警系统。     

Comparative study of electron density from incoherent scatter measurements at Arecibo with the IRI-95 model during solar maximum

Arecibo (18.4 N, 66.7 W) incoherent scatter (IS) observations of electron density N(h) are compared with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-95) during midday (10/14 h), for summer, winter and equinox, at solar maximum (1981). The N(h) profiles below the F2 peak, are normalized to the peak density NmF2 of the F region and are then compared with the IRI-95 model using both the standard B0 (old option) and the Gulyaeva-B0 thickness (new option). The thickness parameter B0 is obtained from the observed electron density profiles and compared with those obtained from the IRI-95 using both the options. Our studies indicate that during summer and equinox, in general, the values of electron densities at all the heights given by the IRI model (new option), are generally larger than those obtained from IS measurements. However, during winter, the agreement between the IRI and the observed values is reasonably good in the bottom part of the F2 layer but IRI underestimates electron density at F1 layer heights. The IRI profiles obtained with the old option gives much better results than those generated with the new option. Compared to the observations, the IRI profiles are found to be much thicker using Gulyaeva-B0 option than using standard B0.     

Seasonal Forecasting for Climate Hazards: Prospects and Responses

One of the most promising developments for early warning of climate hazards is seasonal climate forecasting. Already forecasts are operational in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly for droughts and floods associated with ENSO events. Prospects for further development of seasonal forecasting for a range of climatichazards are reviewed, illustrated with case studies in Africa, Australia, the U.S.A. and Europe. A critical evaluation of the utility of seasonal forecasts centres on vulnerability, communicationchannels, and effective responses. In contrast to short-term prediction, seasonal forecasts raise new issues of preparedness and the use of information.     

铜陵市区的烟幕分析及其预测

作者应用气象资料分析烟幕的发生规律，并应用灰色理论对烟幕进行预测。     

海安暴雨洪涝灾害预报探讨

暴雨洪涝预报是目前气象和水利，水文学科正在致力攻克的预报难题。作者通过调查海安洪涝发生与暴雨的关系，利用水文，地形资料找出径流量和主河道水位升降的相关，结合暴雨预报，推导暴雨洪涝发生的可能以及大致区域和洪涝程度。     

水文预报及信息显示系统开发研究

介绍了SMAR(Soil Moisture Accounding and Routing)模型及其改进--分布式任意时段长模型。简要讨论了参数优化,河道汇流演算方法、实时预报及校正理论等。介绍了水文预报及信息显示系统的组成、功能、特点和环境要求及该系统在长江三峡区间洪水预报中的应用。     

中国及邻近地区冬到夏的季节变化

南亚地区在冬到夏的转变过程中有显著的热力学与环境变化特征，是北半球季节变化的敏感区，对我国长期变化有十分重要的意义。根据这一特点，设计计算了南支西风指数，并将副高面积指数分南北区统计，更地地反映了季节变化特征。统计结果表明，这个指数组对梅雨与华北雨季有天气气候学意义。同时还找到了这个指数组对我国一些地区旱涝的前期指标。     

一种夏季大范围降水趋势分布的预报方法

综合考虑了影响夏季降水异常的大气、海洋因子和降水变化规律，提出了一种大范围降水异常分布的统计预报方法。用１９９１－１９９４年的独立资料检验，取得了满意效果。     

文峪金矿元素地球化学统计分析及深部预测研究

文峪金矿是著名的小秦岭金矿成矿带中的重要矿床，位于河南省与陕西省交界处，本文通过系统的地球化学元素样品分析，采用数学地质统计分析方法，确定了成矿元素间的亲缘关系的组合规律，建立了该矿床成矿元素分带序列模型，指出文峪金矿深部具有良好的找矿远景。