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长江中下游夏季高温灾害机理及预测 总被引:16,自引:1,他引:16
利用我国1961-2003年夏季(6—8月)高温资料,建立长江中下游地区主要城市强高温及高温过程较完整的时间序列,探讨了该地区主要城市高温气候特征。分析该地区南京、杭州、南昌等城市夏季高温灾害机理,东亚副热带高压是造成长江中下游地区城市夏季高温的主要影响系统。在此基础上用均生函数-最佳子回归集构造预测模型,预测夏季月高温出现日数,通过42a高温资料预报检验,有较好的预测效果,值得在业务中应用。 相似文献
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针对参数回归技术制作概率预报存在拟合好、但预报结果不稳定的现象, 提出了用K近邻非参数回归技术制作概率预报的新途径。K 近邻非参数回归技术包括历史样本数据库、近邻子集生成和优化以及预报量估计4 个主要部分。利用该技术进行了单要素概率预报(主要包括云量和降水)和多维联合概率预报(降水、总云量、风速和气温)试验, 并对试验结果进行了检验。实例研究结果表明:该文所给出的计算方案预报稳定性好, 准确率较高,具有良好的业务应用价值。 相似文献
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新疆西天山高硫化型京希-伊尔曼德金矿床的识别标志及其找矿意义 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
经过详细的野外地质勘查、热液蚀变及蚀变矿物学研究,流体包裹体和同位素研究,首次将西天山京希-伊尔曼德金矿床确定为高硫化型浅成低温热液金矿床。该矿床的主要识别标志为:发育以多孔状石英为特征的硅化蚀变带和高级泥化蚀变带;成矿流体性质为低盐度[W(NaCl)为0.3-4.2%]、低pH值(3-4)和高氧化态;氧同位素δ(^18O)为1.7 ‰-4.3‰,δ(D)为-60‰--80‰。金主要富集在高级泥化带和中心硅化蚀变带内。系统研究和总结了成矿地质-地球化学制约因素以及区域、靶区和勘探区尺度的找矿标志。 相似文献
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西藏甲马铜多金属矿床远景预测 总被引:4,自引:5,他引:4
近年研究表明,作为西藏境内少数几个大型矿床之一的甲马铜多金属矿床先后经历了燕山晚期海底喷流积积成矿作用和喜马拉雅期斑岩型成矿作用,相应形成矿区层状主矿休和斑岩型矿体。矿区地质特征、主成矿元素空间分布规律分析后认为:矿区东、西段各存在一个喷流中心,与之相关的层状矿体及深部脉状、网脉状矿体是今后找矿的重点靶区;喜马拉雅期斑岩成矿作用在区域及矿区内均有显示,具有不可忽视的成矿潜力。 相似文献
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It is often infeasible to carry out coupled analyses of multiply‐supported secondary systems for earthquake excitations. ‘Approximate’ decoupled analyses are then resorted to, unless the response errors due to those are significantly high. This study proposes a decoupling criterion to identify such cases where these errors are likely to be larger than an acceptable level. The proposed criterion is based on the errors in the primary system response due to decoupling and has been obtained by assuming (i) the input excitation to be an ideal white noise process, (ii) cross‐modal correlation to be negligible, and (iii) the combined system to be classically damped. It uses the modal properties of the undamped combined system, and therefore, a perturbation approach has been formulated to determine the combined system properties in case of light to moderately heavy secondary systems. A numerical study has been carried out to illustrate the accuracy achieved with the proposed perturbation formulation. The proposed decoupling criterion has been validated with the help of two example primary‐secondary systems and four example excitation processes. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
29.
How to obtain alert velocity thresholds for large rockslides 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A reliable forecast of the failure stage of large rockslides is difficult, because of non-linear time dependency of displacements and seasonal effects. Aim of this paper is to suggest a practical method to prepare alert thresholds for large rockslides, assessing critical values of velocity for carrying out civil protection actions using monitoring data. Adopted data concern the 20 Mm3 Ruinon rockslide (Valfurva, Central Alps, Italy), still evolving and suitable to originate a fast moving rock avalanche. Multitemporal analysis of aerial photos, LIDAR-ALTM laser topography, field survey and geomechanical analyses allowed to infer the rockslide kinematics and better understand data provided by a monitoring network including distometers, extensometers, GPS benchmarks and inclinometers. The analysis of displacement and rainfall data over five years (1997–2001) allowed to recognise three different evolutionary patterns of displacements, showing a continuously increasing rate since 1997. Data representing large-scale behaviour of the rock mass were fitted by power-law curves, according to the “accelerating creep” model by Voight, in order to evaluate a suitable failure time. This was hampered by the large seasonal deviations, which can significantly delay the occurrence of failure. Data were fitted using the Voight’s equation, expressed in terms of displacement, through non-linear estimation techniques, in order to find values of the controlling parameters (A, α and tf) suitable to represent the mechanical behaviour of the rock mass approaching the failure. This allowed to compute velocity–time theoretical curves and to define different velocity threshold values (pre-alert, alert and emergency) to be used for emergency management. 相似文献
30.
Nonlinear earthquake response analysis and energy calculation for seismic slit shear wall structures
Based on the concept of structural passive control, a new type of slit shear wall, with improved seismic performance when
compared to an ordinary solid shear wall, was proposed by the authors in 1996. The idea has been verified by a series of pseudo-static
and dynamic tests. In this paper a macro numerical model is developed for the wall element and the energy dissipation device.
Then, nonlinear time history analysis is carried out for a 10-story slit shear wall model tested on a shaking table. Furthermore,
the seismic input energy and the individual energy dissipated by the components are calculated by a method based on Newmark-β
assumptions for this shear wall model, and the advantages of this shear wall are further demonstrated by the calculation results
from the viewpoint of energy. Finally, according to the seismic damage criterion on the basis of plastic accumulative energy
and maximum response, the optimal analysis is carried out to select design parameters for the energy dissipation device. 相似文献