2014年12月至2015年2月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

文章对2014年12月至2015年2月T639、ECMWF（文中简称EC）及日本数值模式的中期预报产品进行了对比分析和检验。结果表明：三个模式对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变及850 hPa温度转折性变化具有较好的中期预报性能,但都存在随时效增长的系统性偏差;对北方地区温度的预报, EC模式表现为预报较零场偏高,而T639模式表现为预报较零场偏低;对于海平面气压场,EC模式对冷空气前锋的预报与零场更加一致。     

综合地质超前预报在齐岳山隧道施工中的应用

在长大隧道施工过程中,由于工程地质条件的复杂性和不确定性,常会出现如塌方、涌水等地质灾害,为了规避这些地质灾害的发生,在施工过程中实施综合地质超前预报就显得十分有必要。本文以宜(昌)—万(州)铁路齐岳山隧道PDK366+020~PDK365+984段为实例,详细介绍地质分析-TSP地震勘探-超前水平钻探相结合的综合地质超前预报方法,结果证明,该方法具有较高的精度和准确度。     

非线性Hoek-Brown强度折减技术

为精确执行非线性Hoek-Brown(HB)强度折减,首先在p-q空间分析了HB曲线任意点切线与Mohr-Coulomb(MC)准则的对应关系,推求了HB屈服函数材料折减系数和强度折减系数的关系,提出了潜入强度折减系数的HB弹塑性分析模型,介绍了在Flac3D平台上二次开发实现非线性HB强度折减的基本思路。对一边坡算例用本文方法和简化Bishop法进行了对比分析,计算结果表明,潜入强度折减系数的HB弹塑性模型计算获得的边坡潜在滑动面形态、位置和相应的安全系数,与简化Bishop法计算结果很接近。     

A hybrid forecasting model for depth-averaged current velocities of underwater gliders

In this paper, we propose a hybrid forecasting model to improve the forecasting accuracy for depth-averaged current velocities (DACVs) of underwater gliders. The hybrid model is based on a discrete wavelet transform (DWT), a deep belief network (DBN), and a least squares support vector machine (LSSVM). The original DACV series are first decomposed into several high- and one low-frequency subseries by DWT. Then, DBN is used for high-frequency component forecasting, and the LSSVM model is adopted for low-frequency subseries. The effectiveness of the proposed model is verified by two groups of DACV data from sea trials in the South China Sea. Based on four general error criteria, the forecast performance of the proposed model is demonstrated. The comparison models include some well-recognized single models and some related hybrid models. The performance of the proposed model outperformed those of the other methods indicated above.     

基于GIS的淄博市地质灾害预警预报系统建设

淄博市地质灾害预警预报系统基于MapGIS K9平台进行二次开发,以数据库和地理底图为基础,集成数据、图像于一体搭建起一个高度信息化、专业化、智能化的地质灾害预警预报及管理平台。此系统的建设能够显著提高淄博市地质灾害气象预警预报的精细化水平,熟练掌握和运用该系统是进行预警分析、提前预报和及时防范地质灾害发生的有效手段。     

佛山市龙卷风活动的特征及环流背景分析

利用常规气象观测资料和NCEP再分析资料,分析了多年来佛山龙卷风的活动特点及其产生的环流背景和环境条件。结果表明:佛山龙卷风集中出现在4—8月;发生时间主要集中在08:00—14:00;发生地域以南海区最多,其次是三水区;16次龙卷风过程可归纳为4种诱生形势:台风外围型、锋面暖区型、地面辐合线型和热带扰动型。分析还发现:佛山龙卷风发生于偏南暖湿气流中,中低层通常有西南或偏南急流叠加配置,并存在强的垂直风切变和中干冷、下暖湿的强不稳定层结及较低的抬升凝结高度。另外,佛山龙卷风的发生还与地形因素关系密切。     

基于EEMD的黄河中上游夏季降水预报方法的研究

传统的统计方法难以很好的对气候系统这一集非线性、非平稳性为一身的多层次系统进行处理。因此集层次化处理和平稳化处理的集合正交经验模态分解技术(EEMD)的提出,为解决上述问题提供了有效的途径。本文选取黄河中上游24个气象观测站的逐月降水资料,结合组合预报和集合预报思路,基于EEMD建立了统计预报模型。其中对降水序列中的高频部分进行了二次平稳化处理,实现对2008—2013年6—8月的降水预报,并用预报评分检测预报效果。结果表明:EEMD模型对黄河中上游夏季降水有着较强的预报能力,在该区域与气候模式和传统的统计方法相比具有更高的精度和更好的应用前景。     

江淮入梅前后气象因子变化特征及预报着眼点探析

针对2010年江淮地区入梅日预报偏差情况,利用2010年6—7月高低空实况资料和NCEP再分析资料,分析了入梅前后湿度、经向风、地转西风急流的变化特征,并结合1985—2005年21 a历史平均状况和近几年的变化特征,分析了江淮地区入梅前后气象因子变化的规律性、普遍性,丰富了江淮地区入梅预报着眼点。研究发现:有些年份地转西风急流从30°N以南北跳到30~37.5°N区域,对江淮地区进入梅雨期有很好的预示作用,且其稳定维持,有利于江淮梅雨期降水的持续。70%湿度区北跳到30°N的时间及持续时间对江淮地区入梅日的预报和梅雨期长度有着较好的指示作用。在30~35°N区域内v850 hPa-v200 hPa风速差值的突然增大和江淮地区入梅有着较好对应关系。这为梅雨的预报提供了新的思路和方法。     

Warmer-Get-Wetter or Wet-Get-Wetter? A Criterion to Classify Oceanic Precipitation

In this study, the temporal and spatial variations of observed global oceanic precipitation during 1979–2010 are investigated. It is found that the global trend in precipitation during this period varies at a rate of 1.5%/K of surface warming while the rate is 6.6%/K during 2006–2010. The precipitation is highly correlated with Sea Surface Temperature(SST) in both the temporal and the spatial patterns since the strong 1997–98 El Nino event. Considering the distributions of precipitation and SST, seven oceanic regions are classified and presented using the observed Global Precipitation Climatology Project(GPCP) data and Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperatures, version 3(ERSST.v3) data. Further examining the mechanisms of the classified oceanic precipitation regions is conducted using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) satellite, GFDL-ESM-2G model precipitation and SST data and Hadley Center sea ice and SST version 1(Had ISST1) data. More than 85% of global oceanic precipitations are controlled by either one or both of the warmer-get-wetter mechanism and wet-get-wetter mechanism. It is estimated that a 0.5 SST signal-to-noise ratio, representing the trend of SST time series to the standard deviation, is a criterion to distinguish the mechanism of a region. When the SST ratio is larger than 0.5, the precipitation of this region is controlled by the warmer-get-wetter mechanism. SST, rather than the humidity, is the pivotal factor. On the other hand, when the SST ratio is less than 0.5, the precipitation is controlled by the wet-get-wetter mechanism. The SST variability is a significant factor contributing to the precipitation variation.     

Experimental research on the mechanical properties of methane hydrate-bearing sediments during hydrate dissociation

This paper describes studies of the effect of hydrate dissociation on the safety and stability of methane hydrate-bearing sediments. Methane hydrates within the sediments were dissociating under the conditions of a confining pressure of 0.5 MPa, 1 MPa, 2 MPa and a temperature of −5 °C. After 6 h, 24 h, or 48 h, a series of triaxial compression tests on methane hydrate-bearing sediments were performed. The tests of ice-clay and sediments without hydrate dissociation were performed for comparison. Focusing on the mechanical properties of the sediments, the experimental results indicated that the shear strength of the ice-clay mixtures was lower than that of the methane hydrate-bearing sediments. The strength of the sediments was reduced by hydrate dissociation, and the strength tended to decrease further at the lower confining pressures. The secant modulus E_S of the sediments dropped by 42.6% in the case of the dissociation time of the hydrate of 48 h at the confining pressure of 1 MPa; however, the decline of the initial yield modulus E₀ was only 9.34%. The slower hydrate dissociation rate contributed to reducing the failure strength at a declining pace. Based on the Mohr–Coulomb strength theory, it was concluded that the decrease in strength was mainly affected by the cohesive reduction. Moreover, the mathematical expression of the M–C criterion related to the hydrate dissociation time was proposed. This research could be valuable for the safety and stability of hydrate deposits in a permafrost region.