The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature in South Korea using dynamic linear models

The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature from 00 h out to 45 h in South Korea(38 stations) is performed using the DLM (dynamic linear model) in order to eliminate the systematic error of numerical model forecasts. Numerical model forecasts and observations are used as input values of the DLM. According to the comparison of the DLM forecasts to the KFM (Kalman filter model) forecasts with RMSE and bias, the DLM is useful to improve the accuracy of prediction.     

基于抗震性态的设防标准研究

以基于性态的抗震设计为出发点,并以我国为例,针对目前国内外抗震设防标准的若干问题和不足,提出了基于性态抗震设计的三环节抗震设防方法．将现有的设防内容改为确定结构的抗震设计类别、确定设计烈度或设计地震动参数、确定建筑的重要性等级３个方面,并分别在每一方面进行具体深入的研究,从而形成了一套完整的基于性态的抗震设防标准确定的原则、方法和框架,可以直接用来编制规范供抗震设计使用．      

Meteorological monitoring of an active volcano: Implications for eruption prediction

Rainfall data collected on and around the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat between 1998 and 2003 were analysed to assess the impact on primary volcanic activity, defined here as pyroclastic flows, dome collapses, and explosions. Fifteen such rainfall-triggered events were identified. If greater than 20 mm of rain fell on a particular day, the probability of a dome collapse occurring on that day increased by a factor of 6.3% to 9.2%, compared to a randomly chosen day. Similarly, the probability of observing pyroclastic flows and explosions on a day with > 20 mm of rainfall increased by factors of 2.6 and 5.4, respectively. These statistically significant links increased as the rainfall threshold was increased. Seventy percent of these rainfall-induced dome collapse episodes occurred on the same calendar day (most within a few hours) as the onset of intense rainfall, but an extra 3 occurred one or two calendar days later. The state of the volcano was important, with the rainfall–volcanic activity link being strongest during periods of unstable dome growth and weakest during periods of no dome growth or after a recent major collapse.Over 50% of the heavy rain days were associated with large-scale weather systems that can potentially be forecast up to a few days ahead. However, the remaining heavy rain days were associated with small-scale, essentially unpredictable weather systems. There was significant variability in the amount of rainfall recorded by different rain gauges, reflecting topographic variations around the volcano but also the inherent small-scale variability within an individual weather system. Hence, any monitoring/warning program is recommended to use a network, rather than just a single gauge. The seasonal cycle in rainfall was pronounced, with nearly all the heavy rain days occurring in the May–December wet season. Hence, the dome was at its most vulnerable at the beginning of the wet season after a period of uninterrupted growth. Interannual variability in rainfall was related to tropical Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies, and holds out the prospect of some limited skill in volcanic hazard forecasts at even longer lead times.     

潞西盆地浅层地下水脆弱性预测分析

运用DRASTIC方法，评价潞西盆地浅层地下水脆弱性，结合区内人类工程活动因子。对潞西盆地远期地下水脆弱性进行预测分析，成果可为区内土地规划、备用水源地的选择、垃圾填埋场的选址及实现水资源可持续利用提供合理依据。     

基于改进的Elman神经网络的中长期径流预报

径流中长期预报长期以来一直都是人们关注的热点研究问题。现行的径流预报方法很多,传统的有时间序列法,多元回归分析法等,这些方法虽然简单易用,但是如果预报对象提供的样本容量偏小或者因子选择不够合理,都会造成预报精度偏差过大,难于有效的指导工程应用。鉴于此,本文提出一种改进的采用局部回归的Elman神经网络方法。并应用到凤滩水库优化调度的径流预报中。结果表明,与回归分析法、BP网络相比较,该方法不仅提高了算法的效率,而且提高了预报的精度,在径流预报中具有有效性和优越性。     

洪水预报信息利用问题研究与讨论

分析了洪水预报研究现状,讨论了实时洪水预报系统研究中信息利用方面存在的问题,提出了值得进一步研究的关键性问题、研究思路和研究技术路线。     

GIS公路地质环境评价研究

地质环境评价是公路环境评价中一项重要的内容,但公路地质环境定量化的影响评价至今报道甚少。该文根据高速公路通过区地质环境特点,提出了一套用于地质环境评价的指标体系,叙述了公路地质环境评价的基本技术流程,以地质环境评价空间图形信息和属性信息为基础建立系统数据库,利用GIS系统的空间分析能力,评价道路地质环境影响的研究思路。     

APPLICATION OF BDA SCHEME IN TYPHOON TRACK PREDICTION

The MM5, which is the PSU/NCAR mesoscale nonhydrostatic limited-area model, and its adjoining modeling system are used in this paper. Taking T106 analysis data as background field the authors generate an optimal initial condition of a typhoon by using two bogus data assimilation schemes, and conduct some numerical simulating experiments. The results of No.9608 typhoon (Gloria) show that the optimal initial field have some dramatic improvements, such as inaccurate position of typhoon center, weaker typhoon circulation and incomplete inner structure of the typhoon, which are caused by shortage of data over the sea. Some improvements have been made in the track forecast. Through several comparing experiments, the initialization optimized by BDA scheme is found to be more reasonable than GFDL scheme and its typhoon track forecast is better.     

西华岭隧道岩爆判据与预报研究

岩爆是地下工程掘进过程中所遇到的一种动力地质灾害,极大地威胁着施工人员和设备的安全。论述了岩爆的定义、特征及作用机理。结合国内外相关岩爆判据判定和理论分析,通过有限元数值模拟,对西华岭隧道开挖中是否会产生岩爆等施工地质灾害做出了最终的判定。     

修正的莫尔-库仑理论的解析和验证

根据主应力可分解为静水应力和偏应力,以及它们在应力莫尔圆和变形方面的相关性,推导出修正的莫尔-库仑理论的数学表达式。从理论上解决了库仑理论和莫尔理论存在的许多缺陷,特别是中间主应力对材料抗剪强度的影响。它的四参数准则的计算结果与一些混凝土的试验数据相当吻合。