Preliminary sensitivity study of eruption source parameters for operational volcanic ash cloud transport and dispersion models — A case study of the August 1992 eruption of the Crater Peak vent, Mount Spurr, Alaska

Ash clouds are one of the major hazards that result from volcanic eruptions. Once an eruption is reported, volcanic ash transport and dispersion (VATD) models are used to forecast the location of the ash cloud. These models require source parameters to describe the ash column for initialization. These parameters include: eruption cloud height and vertical distribution, particle size distribution, and start and end time of the eruption. Further, if downwind concentrations are needed, the eruption mass rate and/or volume of ash need to be known. Upon notification of an eruption, few constraints are typically available on many of these source parameters. Recently, scientists have defined classes of eruption types, each with a set of pre-defined eruption source parameters (ESP). We analyze the August 18, 1992 eruption of the Crater Peak vent at Mount Spurr, Alaska, which is the example case for the Medium Silicic eruption type. We have evaluated the sensitivity of two of the ESP – the grain size distribution (GSD) and the vertical distribution of ash – on the modeled ash cloud. HYSPLIT and Puff VATD models are used to simulate the ash clouds from the different sets of source parameters. We use satellite data, processed through the reverse absorption method, as reference for computing statistics that describe the modeled-to-observed comparison. With the grain size distribution, the three options chosen, (1) an estimated distribution based on past eruption studies, (2) a distribution with finer particles and (3) the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration HYSPLIT GSD, have little effect on the modeled ash cloud. For the initial vertical distribution, both linear (uniform concentration throughout the vertical column) and umbrella shapes were chosen. For HYSPLIT, the defined umbrella distribution (no ash below the umbrella), apparently underestimates the lower altitude portions of the ash cloud and as a result has a worse agreement with the satellite detected ash cloud compared to that with the linear vertical distribution for this particular eruption. The Puff model, with a Poisson function to represent the umbrella cloud, gave similar results as for a linear distribution, both having reasonable agreement with the satellite detected cloud. Further sensitivity studies of this eruption, as well as studies using the other source parameters, are needed.     

Sedimentological constraints on hydrometeor-enhanced particle deposition: 1992 Eruptions of Crater Peak, Alaska

Water is a dominant component of volcanic clouds and has fundamental control on very fine particle deposition. Particle size characteristics of distal tephra-fall (100s km from source volcano) have a higher proportion of very fine particles compared to predictions based on single particle settling rates. In this study, sedimentological analyses of fallout from for the 18 August and 16–17 September 1992 eruptions of Crater Peak, Alaska, are combined with satellite observations, and cloud trajectory and microphysics modeling to investigate meteorological influences on particle sedimentation. Total grain size distributions of tephra fallout were reconstructed for both Crater Peak eruptions and indicate a predominance of fine particles < 125 μm. Polymodal analysis of the deposits has identified a particle subpopulation with mode ~ 15–18 μm involved in particle aggregation. Accounting for the magmatic water source only, calculated ice water content of the 3.7 hour old September 1992 Spurr cloud was ~ 4.5 × 10^− 2 g m^− 3 (based on an estimated cloud thickness of ~ 1000 m from trajectory modeling). Hydrometeor formation on particles in the volcanic cloud and subsequent sublimation may induce a cloud base instability that leads to rapid bulk (en masse) sedimentation of very fine particles through a mammatus-like mechanism.     

分数阶傅里叶变换联合支持向量机的建筑物变形预测

提出一种分数阶傅里叶变换(fractional Fourier transformation, FrFT)与支持向量机(support vector machine, SVM)相结合的建筑物变形组合预测模型。首先利用FrFT对变形时间序列进行多尺度分析,将复杂时间序列分解为一系列结构较为简单的子序列;然后利用SVM对每个子序列分别建立预测模型,通过将各个子序列的预测结果进行综合叠加,得到最终预测结果;同时考虑到SVM模型参数选择的难题,提出一种改进果蝇优化算法(improved fruit fly optimization algorithm, IFOA)对其进行全局寻优,提升预测性能。以西南地区某混凝土坝变形实测数据为例开展验证实验,结果表明,本文组合预测模型能够充分挖掘数据中隐含的趋势性和规律性信息,获得较高的预测精度。     

复杂背景下的仿蝇视觉遥感异常检测

本文针对遥感影像复杂背景下,背景地物光谱特征与目标光谱特征之间存在较强相关性的问题,提出一种基于仿蝇视觉的复杂背景下遥感异常检测算法。首先构建并行多孔径背景模型,实现对复杂背景特征的自适应描述;然后基于异常目标的光谱特征相对异常性,采用相对马氏距离区分异常区域、不确定区域与无目标区域,消除背景与目标光谱相关性对检测结果干扰的同时,弥补了传统假设检验无法区分无目标和不确定问题的不足;最后融合多个背景模型的检测结果,实现异常目标检测。仿真实验将围绕多种背景地物并存复杂区域的异常检测验证本文算法的有效性。     

橡胶颗粒改良粉煤灰土的动力特性试验研究

对橡胶颗粒改良粉煤灰土的动强度、动模量、黏聚力和内摩擦角进行了动三轴试验研究,并将试验结果与粉煤灰土的动力特性加以对比,分析表明：粉煤灰土及橡胶颗粒改良粉煤灰土在同一围压下动强度均随破坏周数的增加而减小;在同一破坏周数下动强度随着围压的增加而增加;粉煤灰土的黏聚力为203.73 kPa,内摩擦角为11°;橡胶颗粒改良粉煤灰土的黏聚力为227.26 kPa,内摩擦角为17°,橡胶颗粒改良粉煤灰土的黏聚力增大了23.53 kPa,提高了11.55%;粉煤灰土的初始切线模量及平均动模量高于橡胶颗粒改良粉煤灰土的初始切线模量及平均动模量。研究表明,橡胶颗粒改良后的粉煤灰土具有动强度高、黏聚力和内摩擦角大的特点,从而说明橡胶颗粒改良后的粉煤灰土可以作为季冻区路基冷阻层材料     

涠洲岛火山活动空降碎屑的数值模拟

本文应用美国国家气象局提供的1958—1997年全球大气精确的轨道参数和涠洲岛地区风速和风向等数据资料,模拟了火山喷发时空降碎屑的分布情况。结果表明,涠洲岛地区火山喷发形成的空降碎屑分布与喷发时的风速与风向有关,NNW方向的风可使空降碎屑影响到海南省北部地区,SSW方向风可使空降碎屑影响广西东南部和广东西南部的广大地区,1月和7月份喷发时主要影响涠洲岛及周边海域。     

Na2O对高铝粉煤灰合成莫来石的影响

本文研究了Na2O添加量和烧结温度对粉煤灰合成莫来石材料性能、晶体结构和显微形貌的影响。结果表明,Na2O可较大辐度降低粉煤灰合成莫来石的温度。在1300℃,Na2O添加至2%时,生成的莫来石细小,含量较高,但试样强度不高;Na2O添至4%时,莫来石发育为长柱状,长径比约8～12,并且相互交错成网状,材料的机械强度较高,抗折强度为97.71MPa,莫来石相对含量为76.1%;Na2O添加至8%时,莫来石含量明显减少,晶形变为不规则状。在一定范围内,材料的体积密度、烧成线收缩率和抗折强度均随温度的升高而增大,莫来石含量也相应增多。     

粉煤灰水泥土变形特性实验研究

水泥土中掺入粉煤灰能在一定程度改善其性能,而变形特性是实际工程应用的重要指标。因此,研究粉煤灰和龄期对水泥土变形特性的影响对实际工程具有较大的参考价值。通过粉煤灰掺量为0和8%的水泥土无侧限抗压强度实验,研究发现养护龄期的增长与粉煤灰的掺加有利于水泥土变形模量的增长,尤其是粉煤灰的掺加有利于后期变形模量的增长。进一步对比分析两种粉煤灰掺量时的无侧限抗压强度和平均变形模量,发现它们之间基本上呈线性关系,随后通过拟合得出了它们之间的换算公式。最后,考虑应力-应变曲线模型特征以及对试验数据回归分析,推导出了一定条件下的水泥土应力-应变上升段表达式,为实际工程设计提供参考。     

粉煤灰与生石灰加固软土的室内试验研究

粉煤灰是一种工业废弃物,与生石灰一样均可用来加固软土地基。笔者进行了粉煤灰与生石灰加固土的室内配方试验,分别将水泥或生石灰与粉煤灰按照不同的比例干拌均匀后,再与不同含水量的软土人工拌和均匀,测定了不同龄期的无侧限抗压强度;分析了石灰加固土强度与生石灰掺入比和龄期的关系及其压缩系数、压缩模量等的变化。并进一步分析了粉煤灰的加固机理,旨在为其进一步的研究和工程应用提供参考。