我国东、西部夏季水汽输送特征及其差异

本文利用ERA-40再分析每日资料分析了我国东部季风区与西北干旱—半干旱区夏季1971～2000年气候平均的水汽输送特征及其差异, 分析结果表明我国东部季风区与西北干旱—半干旱区夏季气候平均的水汽输送特征有明显的差异。由于亚洲夏季风从孟加拉湾、 南海和热带西太平洋输送大量水汽到我国东部季风区, 故在东部季风区夏季经向水汽输送通量比纬向水汽输送通量大。而西北干旱—半干旱区受中纬度西风带的影响, 夏季纬向水汽输送通量比经向水汽输送通量大, 且此区域夏季无论纬向或者经向水汽输送通量均比东部季风区的水汽输送通量小一量级。并且, 分析结果还表明: 我国东部季风区由于湿度大, 故夏季水汽输送通量的散度不仅依赖于湿度平流, 而且依赖于风场的辐合、 辐散, 而西北干旱—半干旱区夏季水汽输送通量的散度主要依赖于湿度平流。此外, 分析结果还表明了我国东部季风区的水分平衡与西北干旱—半干旱区的水分平衡也有明显的不同。     

北京北郊冬季大风过程湍流通量演变特征的分析研究

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所325 m气象观测塔1993年12月～1994年1月大气边界层实验资料, 计算分析了大风过境过程中47 m和120 m高度湍流通量演变特征及其影响因子, 以及与风速、 稳定度等参数的关系。结果表明: 大风过程对近地面层的物质能量输送有着重要影响, 大风之前出现短时间动量上传和热量下传; 大风过程中的湍流通量数值明显高于过境后, 水平方向湍流通量数值和能量增加幅度大于垂直方向; 当风速大于临界值5 m/s时, 湍流通量与风速、 湍流动能的相关迅速增大; 湍流谱特征表现为湍流能量的低频部分增加、 湍流谱曲线变宽; 大风能强烈影响近地面层的能量收支。     

SEASONAL PERSISTENCE OF THE WEST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SURFACE HEAT FLUX ANOMALY

This paper investigates the interannual variation of the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) intensity based on the data compiled by the Chinese National Climate Center. Monthly reanalysis data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) are also used to study the lead-lag relationship between WPSH intensity and surface heat flux anomalies. The three major findings are as follows: First, WPSH intensity presents good seasonal persistence, especially from winter to the ensuing summer. Persistence is more significant after 1977, especially from spring to summer, and from summer to autumn; persistence of anticyclonic anomalies are significantly better than cyclonic anomalies. Second, surface heat flux tends to present opposite anomalous patterns between the strong and weak years of the WPSH intensity, which is especially valid at the latent heat flux over the ocean. Simultaneous correlations between surface heat flux and WPSH intensity in each of the seasons are marked by similar key areas. Finally, surface heat flux from the preceding winter of a strong summer WPSH is quite similar to strong spring WPSH, but the positive anomalies over the northwest Pacific and south of Japan are notably stronger. The situations in the weak years are similar except for those over the northwest Pacific: winter surface heat flux shows negative anomalies for a weak spring WPSH, but positive anomalies for a weak summer WPSH. It is suggested that surface heat flux in the previous winter plays an important role in maintaining the WPSH intensity in the ensuing spring and summer.     

近10年全球变暖停滞了吗?

综合分析了与近10年(1999—2008年)全球变暖停滞有关的几个问题。首先,虽然1999—2008年全球平均温度增量接近零,但是这10年仍是30年来平均温度最高的10年。其次,自然变化如火山活动、太阳辐射、ENSO及大洋热盐环流变化可能影响全球平均温度的年际及年代际变化,但是不大可能改变全球变暖的长期趋势。最后,用全球及中国的观测资料证实1999—2008年中国平均温度增量为0.4～0.5℃/10a,即中国的气候变暖仍在继续。     

Model Projections of East Asian Summer Climate under the ‘Free Arctic’ Scenario

This paper addresses the ‘ice-free Arctic’ issue under the future global warming scenario. Four coupled climate models used in the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were selected to project summer climate conditions over East Asia once the Arctic becomes ice-free. The models project that an ice-free Arctic summer will begin in the 2060s under the SRESA1B (according to IPCC Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios) simulations. Our results show that the East Asian summer monsoons will tend to be stronger and that the water vapor transport to central northern China will be strengthened, leading to increased summer precipitation in central northern China. The models also project an intensified Antarctic Oscillation, a condition which favors increased precipitation in South China’s Yangtze River Valley. The overall precipitation in Northwest China is projected to increase under ice-free Arctic summer conditions.     

Parameterization of Sheared Convective Entrainment in the First-Order Jump Model: Evaluation Through Large-Eddy Simulation

In this note, two different approaches are used to estimate the entrainment-flux to surface-flux ratio for a sheared convective boundary layer (CBL); both are derived under the framework of the first-order jump model (FOM). That suggested by Sun and Wang (SW approach) has the advantage that there is no empirical constant included, though the dynamics are described in an implicit manner. The second, which was proposed by Kim et al. and Pino et al. (KP approach), explicitly characterizes the dynamics of the sheared entrainment, but uncertainties are induced through the empirical constants. Their performances in parameterizing the CBL growth rate are compared and discussed, and a new value of the parameter A ₃ in the KP approach is suggested. Large-eddy simulation (LES) data are employed to test both approaches: simulations are conducted for the CBL growing under varying conditions of surface roughness, free-atmospheric stratification, and wind shear, and data used when the turbulence is in steady state. The predicted entrainment rates in each case are tested against the LES data. The results show that the SW approach describes the evolution of the sheared CBL quite well, and the KP approach also reproduces the growth of the CBL reasonably, so long as the value of A ₃ is modified to 0.6.     

A Re-examination of Density Effects in Eddy Covariance Measurements of CO2 Fluxes

Corrections of density effects resulting from air-parcel expansion/compression are important in interpreting eddy covariance fluxes of water vapor and CO2 when open-path systems are used. To account for these effects, mean vertical velocity and perturbation of the density of dry air are two critical parameters in treating those physical processes responsible for density variations. Based on various underlying assumptions, different studies have obtained different formulas for the mean vertical velocity and perturbation of the density of dry air, leading to a number of approaches to correct density effects. In this study, we re-examine physical processes related to different assumptions that are made to formulate the density effects. Specifically, we re-examine the assumptions of a zero dry air flux and a zero moist air flux in the surface layer, used for treating density variations, and their implications for correcting density effects. It is found that physical processes in relation to the assumption of a zero dry air flux account for the influence of dry air expansion/compression on density variations. Meanwhile, physical processes in relation to the assumption of a zero moist air flux account for the influence of moist air expansion/compression on density variations. In this study, we also re-examine mixing ratio issues. Our results indicate that the assumption of a zero dry air flux favors the use of the mixing ratio relative to dry air, while the assumption of a zero moist air flux favors the use of the mixing ratio relative to the total moist air. Additionally, we compare different formula for the mean vertical velocity, generated by air-parcel expansion/compression, and for density effect corrections using eddy covariance data measured over three boreal ecosystems.     

AMIP模式对大气经向质量输送的模拟评估

从描述南、北半球间大气经向质量传输的角度人手,考察IPCC第4次评估报告提供的8个AMIP大气环流模式对越赤道质量通量输送的模拟性能。结果表明:NCAR、MPI和UKMO模式模拟出的越赤道整层大气质量通量与观测大体相一致;MIROC3模拟的整层大气质量通量年循环与观测结果相去甚远,尤其在夏季模拟出较强的虚假向北大气质量输送;IAP模拟的整层大气质量通量年循环方向与观测结果在7个月份中相反;把垂直大气分为4层.各模式对700 hPa以下(I_1)和300-70 hPa(I_3)两层质量通量的模拟能力普遍较好;对700-300 hPa层(I_2)质量通量模拟结果偏差较大;除MIROC3外,其余模式基本能够模拟出70-10 hPa(I_4)大气质量通量的季节变化.显然,不仅南、北半球间大气存在质量交换,越过其他纬度同样存在着经向大气质量输送,无论冬季、夏季还是年平均,各模式对越过其他纬度(60°S-60°N)经向大气质量输送的模拟结果与观测差异明显。整体权衡,UKMO_HADGEMl在模拟越赤道大气质量通量方面表现突出,MPI_ECHAM5模式优势较明显;NCAR、GISS和GFDL 3个模式在某些压力层内具有较好的模拟水平;MIROC模式对整层、700-300 hPa层的模拟能力较低,而对700 hPa以下层和300-70 hPa层的模拟水平较高;IAP_FGOALS和CNRM模式在模拟越赤道大气质量通量方面存在一定的不足.     

T213L31全球模式云和对流参数化方案改进试验

针对中国业务中期数值预报模式T213对中雨量级以上的降水预报空报比较明显的问题,文中对此模式预报的降水进行了诊断分析。发现T213模式预报的总降水分布主要是由可分辨尺度降水决定的,且在降水偏多最明显的地区,可分辨尺度的降水即超过或达到了观测的总降水,表明降水空报的主要原因在于可分辨尺度降水偏多。可分辨尺度降水偏多的可能原因有：土壤湿度初始化、云变量的初始化和直接产生降水的云与对流参数化方案存在一定的缺陷。鉴于前两者是目前国际上的难点,文中针对第3个方面的可能原因进行了分析和相应的改进。包括在对流方案之前增加一次云方案的调用;对流参数化方案的闭合由“动力型”改为对流有效位能调整闭合;更复杂的对流触发机制;改进冰沉降和降水通量计算。改进的主要目的是使对流参数化方案更活跃,从而减少格点尺度对流的发生。采用改进的方案,进行了敏感性试验和2005年夏季的连续滚动同化预报试验,并与中国区域400个标准站的降水观测和GPCP的全球降水观测进行了比较。结果表明,改进的方案无论是对中国区域还是全球夏季平均的降水分布预报都好于业务,但四川省和赤道东太平洋降水偏多的问题依然存在。中国区域的降水统计检验还表明,除小雨外,其他量级在大部分时效上降水的TS评分增加,预报偏差降低。     

辐射和积云对流过程对大气辐射通量的影响

基于中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室发展的全球大气环流谱模式(SAMIL-R42L26),研究了澳大利亚气象局研究中心(BMRC)新辐射方案和新Zhang-McFaflane积云对流方案对大气辐射通量模拟的影响.新辐射方案相比原辐射方案在辐射计算光谱分辨率、气体吸收和计算效率等方面作了很多改进,其对大气辐射通量的模拟能力相应提高.在晴空条件下,大气顶出射长波、大气吸收短波和地表入射短波等与观测的偏差较原辐射方案明显减小,尤其是在对流活跃区域.在云天条件下大气辐射通量与观测的偏差也较原辐射方案减小,但其偏差依然较大,这与模式中积云对流参数化方案模拟能力不足引起的辐射通量偏差有关.为此,换用了新Zhang-McFarlane积云对流方案,其结果表明,对流活跃区水汽含量显著增加,原对流方案中偏强的"双赤道辐合带"现象明显减弱,赤道辐合带地区的大气辐射通量偏差有明显减小,在海洋地区晴空大气顶出射长波和地表入射短波的量值及空间分布均接近观测结果,同时大气顶全球平均能量收支的年变化和观测结果趋于一致,其中模拟的伞球年平均大气顶能量收支和观测的偏差不到0.6 W/m2.试验结果同时表明,在未来研究中引入气溶胶分布、调整相关的云物理和陆面过程等物理参数化方案是进一步提高SAMIL-R42L26辐射通最模拟性能的关键.