城镇化背景下中国长期低碳转型路径研究

在中国经济步入新常态之际,为了研究城镇化背景下的长期碳排放趋势,构建了人口变动与能源系统互动的综合分析框架与社会经济-能源系统模型。结果显示,从2014年至2050年,预计有3亿人口从农村流向城市,并呈现从中小型城市逐步向大型和特大型城市汇集的趋势。人口流动趋势与人民生活质量改善结合,推动中国基础设施建设、工业产品生产和能源服务需求增长。基准情景下,2050年中国一次能源消费总量达到84亿tce,能源相关CO₂排放达到176亿t,比2013年增长83%;而在低碳转型情景下,通过技术创新,2050年中国一次能源消费需求可以控制在61亿tce左右,CO₂排放在2020—2025年间达峰,2050年比基准情景降低78%。低碳转型过程中,非化石能源电力和能效技术的减排潜力最大,工业和电力部门率先在2020年达峰,建筑和交通 ^①（①按照国际通行的能源系统部门划分标准和能耗概念,工业、建筑、交通均属于终端能源消费部门,其中建筑部门能耗指建筑运行能耗,而非建筑建造过程中的能耗;交通部门能耗指所有交通活动能耗,既包括交通运输业营运类运输工具的交通能耗,也包括私人、公务非营运类运输工具的交通能耗 ^[1]。）将在2030年左右达峰。实现低碳转型所需新增固定投资占GDP的1.5%,不会给国民经济带来重大负担。中国实施新型城镇化战略具有技术和经济可行性。     

因子的持续和转折对我国盛夏降水预测效果的影响

由于影响我国盛夏（7—8月）降水异常的主要因子前期（或从冬季到夏季）不同的月际演变特征对其后降水异常的影响不同,所以针对影响因子的月际“持续异常”和“转折变化”对盛夏降水异常的预测方法也应该是不同的。本文以国家气候中心整理的78项月环流特征量指数和CPC/NOAA的30项指数为因子,设计了能够反映影响因子的月指数特征量“持续异常”和“转折变化”的两套影响因子库,用“滑动相关—逐步回归—集合分析”方法分别建立预测模型,改进预测方案,这样建立的统计预测模型重点考虑了前期影响因子不同的变化特征。用距平符号一致率（PSS）与空间距平相关系数（ACC）为指标,对比分析不同因子处理方案对我国160站盛夏（7—8月）降水预测效果的影响,结果显示：两种因子选择方案均具有一定的预测能力;相比之下,“转折变化”因子选取方案的预测效果更好;用单站交叉建模序列与实测序列的相关系数为指标,挑选其中相关系数更高的因子选取方案结果作为集合方案预测结果,集合方案的预测效果有进一步提高的潜力。     

Shaping climate policy in the housing sector in northern Chinese cities

What are relevant urban development investment strategies for improving building energy efficiency (BEE) and decarbonizing the urban district heating supply in rapidly urbanizing China? Different trajectories of BEE and energy supply technologies are compared in the urban context in a northern Chinese city. Vigorous improvement of BEE will significantly enhance the prospective financial capacity to facilitate deployment of backstop technologies (e.g. carbon capture and storage) in order to decarbonize the energy supply and achieve the long-term targets of low-carbon buildings. Carbon finance instruments should be used to facilitate public policy to accompany the necessary transition in the urban development process. The government-run efficiency procurement scheme will overcome the problem of insufficient incentive and high transaction costs associated with individual Clean Development Mechanism projects. Appropriate investment strategies (allocation of financial resources over the time frame) will allow local governments to harness the large potentials of carbon emissions mitigation while minimizing the risk of long-term technical lock-in in the built environment in Chinese cities.     

被动型氢钟波谱信号观测装置的设计

简单介绍了被动型氢钟的量子系统,阐述了波谱信号观测装置的设计。该装置采用标准10MHz晶振产生被动型氢钟的微波激射信号(1.420406GHz),然后将该信号输入氢钟的脉泽振荡器中。脉泽振荡器输出的信号经过低噪声放大、两次混频及滤波后所得的谱线包含了量子系统的信息,通过分析最终的谱线即可得知量子系统的优劣。该装置已用于对两台被动型氢钟的测试,并根据测试结果对量子系统进行了改进。     

Near Infrared Spectra of two Asteroids with low Tisserand Invariant

We present near infrared reflectance spectra from 0.8 to 2.5 μm of two asteroids with low Tisserand invariant, 1373 Cincinnati and 2906 Caltech. We compare our spectra with cometary nuclei and other asteroids in their class. Asteroids Cincinnati and Caltech have Tisserand invariant values of 2.72 and 2.97, respectively, values less than 3 are considered suggestive of cometary origin. The observed spectral slopes in the near-infrared are consistent with both the spectra of cometary nuclei and of primitive asteroids. However, both asteroids have features in the near-infrared that are not seen in cometary nuclei, but are present in other X-type asteroids. 1373 Cincinnati has a sharp slope change between 0.75 and 1.0 μm and 2906 Caltech has a broad and shallow absorption between 1.35 and 2.2 μm. Our attempts to model the visible and near-infrared spectrum of these two objects, with the components successfully used by Emery and Brown (2004, Icarus 164, 104–121) to fit Trojan asteroids, did not yield acceptable fits.Visiting Astronomer at the Infrared Telescope Facility, which is operated by the University of Hawaii under contract to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.     

Material exchange as heat engine for the corona-chromosphere transition region

We think that a steady material exchange in the upper solar atmosphere can act as a heat engine that cools the corona and heats the corona-chromosphere transition region. We have considered heat conduction from the corona and radiation loss in the transition region and have calculated the temperature, density and velocity distributions in the transition region. Also discussed is the relation between the material flux, the velocity boundary value and the thickness of the transition region.     

星际分子正—NH3和He的超精细跃迁碰撞截面和速率系数的理论计算

本文采用Ｒ矩阵传播方法，通过求解ＣＳ近似下的耦合方程，计算了星际分子云条件下正－ＮＨ３分子和Ｈｅ碰撞的超精细跃迁碰撞截面和速率系数，为研究天体的信息提供需用的基础数据。     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Marine Resources of Kuwait: Their Role in the Development of Non-oil Resources . Fatimah H. Y. al -Abdul -Razzak Recollections of a Revolution: Geography as Spatial Science . Mark Billinge , Derek Gregory and Ron Martin Entre l'Eden et l'Utopie . Luc Bureau Developments in Political Geography . M. A. Busteed The Elements of Graphing Data . William S. Cleveland Rural Resource Management . Paul J. Cloke and Chris C. Park Third World Atlas . Ben Crow and Alan Thomas Exploitation, Conservation, Preservation: A Geographic Perspective on Natural Resource Use . Susan L. Cutter , Hilary Lambert Renwick, and William H. Renwick . Wine Regions of the Southern Hemisphere . Harm Jan de Blij Regional Development: Problems and Policies in Eastern and Western Europe . George Demko The Geographer at Work . Peter R. Gould Change in the Amazon Basin . John Hemming Geography Since the Second World War . R. J. Johnston and P. Claval Urbanization in China: Town and Countryside in a Developing Economy 1949–2000 A.D. , R. J. R. Kirkby Transport and Communications for Pacific Microstates: Issues in Organisation and Management . Christopher C. Kissling Fluvial Forms and Processes . David Knighton The Urban Millennium . Josef W. Konvitz Technological Transition in Cartography . Mark Stephen Monmonier Field Guide to Soils and the Environment: Applications of Soil Surveys . Gerald W. Olson Northern Australia: The Arenas of Life and Ecosystems on Half a Continent . Don Parkes A Killing Rain: The Global Threat of Acid Rain . Thomas Pawlick From the Family Farm to Agribusiness: The Irrigation Crusade in California and the West, 1850–1931 . Donald J. Pisani Hybrid Maize Diffusion in Kenya . Franz -Michael Rundquist Warning and Response to the Mount St. Helens Eruption . Thomas F. Saarinen and James L. Sell Coastal Geomorphology in Australia . B. G. Thom Tropical Rain Forests of the Far East , 2nd ed . T. C. Whitmore The Dark Side of the Earth . Robert Muir Wood Categorical Data Analysis for Geographers and Environmental Scientists , Neil Wrigley     

Geological, mineralogical and geochemical characteristics of the Radzimowice Au–As–Cu deposit from the Kaczawa Mountains (Western Sudetes, Poland): an example of the transition of porphyry and epithermal style

The sheeted quartz–sulfide veins of the Radzimowice Au–As–Cu deposit in the Kaczawa Mountains are related to Upper Carboniferous post-collisional potassic magmatism of the composite Zelezniak porphyry intrusion. Multiple intrusive activity ranges from early calc-alkaline to sub-alkaline and alkaline rocks and is followed by multiple hydrothermal events. Early crustally derived dacitic magma has low mg# (<63) and very low concentrations of mantle-compatible trace elements, high large-ion lithophile elements (LILE), moderate light rare-earth elements (LREE), and low high-field-strength elements (HFSE). Later phases of more alkaline rocks have higher mg# (60–70), and LILE, LREE, and HFSE characteristics that indicate mafic magma contributions in a felsic magma chamber. The last episode of the magmatic evolution is represented by lamprophyre dikes which pre-date ore mineralization and are spatially related to quartz–sulfide–carbonate veins. The dikes consist of kersantite and spessartite of calc-alkaline affinity with K₂O/Na₂O ratios of 1.1–1.9, mg# of 77–79, and high abundances of mantle-compatible trace elements such as Cr, Ni, and V. They have high LILE, low LREE, and low HFSE contents suggesting a subduction-related post-collisional arc-setting. The mineralization started with arsenopyrite that was strongly brecciated and overprinted by multiple quartz–carbonate phases associated with base-metal sulfides and Au–Ag–Bi–Te–Pb±S minerals. The sulfur isotope composition of sulfides ranges from –1.1 to 2.8 ³⁴S and suggests a magmatic source. At least two generations of gold deposition are recognized: (1) early refractory, and (2) subsequent non-refractory gold mineralization of epithermal style. Co-rich arsenopyrite with refractory gold and pyrite are the most abundant minerals of the early stage of sulfide precipitation. Early arsenopyrite formed at 535–345°C along the arsenopyrite–pyrrhotite–loellingite buffer and late arsenopyrite crystallized below 370°C along the arsenopyrite–pyrite buffer. Non-refractory gold associated with base-metal sulfides and with Bi–Te–Ag–Pb–S mineral assemblages has an average fineness of about 685, and is represented by electrum of two generations, and minor maldonite (Au₂Bi). Fluid inclusions from various quartz generations co-genetic with base-metal sulfides and associated with carbonates, tellurides and non-refractory gold indicate fluids with moderate salinity (9–15 wt% NaCl equiv.) and a temperature and pressure drop from 350 to 190°C and 1.2 to 0.8 kbar, respectively. According to the result of the sulfur isotope fractionation geothermometer the temperature of base-metal crystallization was in the range from 322 to 289°C. Preliminary results of oxygen isotope studies of quartz from veins indicate a gradual increase in the proportion of meteoric water in the epithermal stage. The gold to silver ratio in ore samples with >3 ppm Au is about 1:5 (geometric mean). Hydrothermal alteration started with sericitization, pyritization, and kaolinitization in vein selvages followed by alkaline hydrothermal alteration of propylitic character (illitization and chloritization), albitization and carbonatization. The mineralization of the Radzimowice deposit is considered as related to alkaline magmatism and is characterized by the superposition of low-sulfidation epithermal mineralization on higher-temperature and deeper-seated mesothermal/porphyry style.Editorial handling: B. Lehmann     

Ab initio study of the high-pressure behavior of CaSiO3 perovskite

Using density functional simulations, within the generalized gradient approximation and projector-augmented wave method, we study structures and energetics of CaSiO₃ perovskite in the pressure range of the Earths lower mantle (0–150 GPa). At zero Kelvin temperature the cubic CaSiO₃ perovskite structure is unstable in the whole pressure range, at low pressures the orthorhombic (Pnam) structure is preferred. At 14.2 GPa there is a phase transition to the tetragonal (I4/mcm) phase. The CaIrO₃-type structure is not stable for CaSiO₃. Our results also rule out the possibility of decomposition into oxides.