中国华北地区冬季降水异常特征及其与大气环流和海温的关系

利用1951—2012年中国冬季160站降水资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及NOAA海温资料,分析了中国华北地区冬季降水的异常变化特征及其与大气环流和海温的关系。结果表明:华北地区冬季降水主要呈现为全区一致变化的特征,且年际变率较大,具有2~4 a的年际变化周期。降水异常偏多(少)年,西伯利亚高压偏弱(强),阿留申低压偏弱(强),850 h Pa上华北地区盛行的西北风较弱(强),控制该地区的东亚冬季风偏弱(强),该地区有偏南(北)风距平,500 h Pa上东亚槽脊系统偏弱(强)。影响华北地区冬季降水的异常水汽主要来源于南海及其以东的西太平洋。前期夏季日本以东的西风漂流区、同期冬季近海的黄渤海区域的海温均与中国华北地区冬季降水存在显著的正相关关系。     

Episodic fluid flow as a trigger for Miocene‐Pliocene slope instability on the Utgard High,Norwegian Sea

Mass wasting is triggered on many continental slopes by a number of mechanisms, including seismic shaking, high sedimentation rates, the presence of weak geological units and gas hydrate dissociation. In this study, the morphology of a Late Miocene–Early Pliocene mass‐transport complex (MTC) on the Utgard High is unravelled and discussed in relation to possible trigger mechanisms. The approach used here includes 3D seismic interpretation and the analysis of variance attribute maps. The interpreted MTC is located on the crest and flanks of the Utgard High and is composed of three mass‐transport deposits with seismic characters varying from transparent and chaotic seismic facies at the base to slightly deformed layers composed of mounds and rafted blocks in the middle and chaotic to transparent reflections at the top. Lithologically, the MTC consists predominantly of claystone with high gamma ray and low density and resistivity values, demonstrating that the associated mounds represent remobilized ooze sediments. A vertical stack of six magmatic sills emplaced from 55.6 to 56.3 Ma into the Upper Cretaceous shales is interpreted at depths of 3,000–5,500 ms two‐way travel time (TWTT). In association with these magmatic sills are several hydrothermal vent complexes that interacted with the top MTC horizon, signifying that episodic and secondary fluid‐venting events might be the principal mechanism facilitating mass wasting in the study area. In addition, the remobilization of ooze sediments into mounds is hypothesized to be dependent on fluids and clayey layers. As a corollary of this work, the importance of relict and recurrent episodes of fluid flow in the Vøring Basin and their influence on the geotechnical integrity of the overburden and later mass wasting is established.     

An Abrupt Change in Tropospheric Temperature Gradient and Moisture Transport Over East Asia in the Late 1990s

ABSTRACT

Previous studies have shown that the recent summer climate (precipitation in particular) over East Asia is varying significantly. Here we extend the study to April, May, and June (AMJ) or the seasonal transition period associated with the onset of the summer monsoon. It is found that the average 1000–400?hPa AMJ tropospheric temperature (TT) experienced a sudden change at the end of the twentieth century. The change has a dipolar modal structure, with one pole over countries in Central Asia (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.) and the other over the Tibetan Plateau. The difference in the TT between the centres of the two poles (?TT), which characterizes the zonal gradient of the TT over Asia, has seen a significant reduction since 1999. The causal relations of ?TT with the local circulation, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), surface shortwave flux (SSWF), precipitation, etc. have been investigated using a newly developed rigorous causality analysis, which unambiguously reveals a one-way causality from ?TT to each of OLR, SSWF, and precipitation.     

“ 中欧班列”陆路运输腹地范围测算与枢纽识别

自“一带一路”战略实施以来,中国各地政府大力推进中欧国际班列运输,试图改变传统的对外贸易运输体系,强化提升新欧亚大陆桥运输作用。然而,设施联通、运输价格、货源及复杂的地缘政治环境等问题仍然是制约中欧班列发展的重要因素。为此,本文在分析“中欧班列”运营现状及存在问题基础上,提出实现其高频率常态运营的“轴-辐”运输组织模式。通过构建高、中、低三种运价方案,利用距离—经济成本分析法划分“中欧班列”主要出境口岸的经济腹地范围;并综合考虑各城市的铁路技术指标、集疏运能力和货源—成本等因素,从全国尺度识别出“中欧班列”组织的枢纽城市。     

新疆西部一次大暴雨过程水汽输送轨迹模拟

在分析2016年7月28日—8月2日新疆西部罕见大暴雨过程环流形势和影响系统的基础上,利用基于拉格朗日方法的轨迹模式HYSPLIT,应用GDAS资料,模拟计算了大暴雨期间不同区域不同高度的水汽输送轨迹、主要通道及不同源地的水汽贡献。结果表明:(1)200 h Pa高空偏西急流、700 h Pa和850 h Pa低空偏东急流及辐合线和500 h Pa稳定"两脊一槽"环流是大暴雨产生的天气背景;(2)大暴雨过程中阿克苏地区北部、伊犁河谷地区和博州地区东部1500、3000和5000 m水汽输送轨迹、主要通道及不同源地的水汽贡献存在差异,其中,阿克苏地区北部1500、3000、5000 m水汽分别主要来自中亚地区、中亚地区、地中海北部,水汽贡献分别占该高度水汽的38%、46%、48%;伊犁河谷地区1500、3000、5000 m水汽分别主要来自哈萨克斯坦、哈萨克斯坦、黑海南部,水汽贡献分别占该高度水汽的100%、50%、68%;博州地区东部1500、3000、5000 m水汽分别主要来自西西伯利亚、中亚地区、东欧,水汽贡献分别占该高度水汽的58%、54%、82%。水汽在输送过程中高度多变,以偏东和偏南路径为主输送到大暴雨区上空;(3)欧洲大陆、西西伯利亚、中亚地区等陆地及黑海、里海等海洋是此次大暴雨水汽主要来源。南疆低层偏东风和辐合线在水汽的聚集及向上输送中发挥了重要作用,高空急流产生的次级环流的下沉气流在将高空水汽向下输送中扮演了重要角色。     

中国交通CO2排放时空格局演变及其影响因素——基于2000~2012年30个省（市）面板数据的分析

通过构建交通CO₂排放模型对2000~2012年中国30个省（市）的交通CO₂排放时空演变特征进行了分析。并采取“由大到小”逐步回归的建模方式,在传统的固定效应模型（面板数据模型）基础上引入时间固定效应,构建了双向固定效应模型对中国交通CO₂排放的社会经济、城市形态、交通发展等方面的影响因素进行研究。结果表明：2000~2012年期间,中国交通CO₂排放总量和人均交通CO₂排放量分别以9.29%和8.69%的年均增速增长,前者的区域差异呈先增后减趋势,后者的区域差异则首先呈周期性波动,而后一直保持减少趋势。人均GDP和城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入对人均交通CO₂排放具有显著的正向效应,表明社会经济发展和居民收入水平提高是交通CO₂排放增长的主要驱动因素。城市人口密度对交通CO₂排放亦具有显著的正向效应,这意味着未来中国应加强对城市人口密度的规划控制,以避免因人口过度集聚而额外增加产生交通CO₂排放。公共交通发展水平对交通CO₂排放增长具有显著的负向效应,但小汽车拥有率对交通CO₂排放的影响并不显著。     

土壤水盐运移模型研究进展及展望

回顾了国内外土壤水盐运移模型的发展历程,根据土壤水盐运移模型构成的原理和发展趋势,将土壤水盐运移模型分为水盐平衡模型、物理模型和系统模型。借助国内外文献对已有模型的原理和应用进行了介绍,并对存在的问题进行了分析;展望了新形势下土壤水盐运移模型的未来发展趋势和研究重点,旨在为今后土壤水盐运移模型研究提供新的思路。     

A cost path and network analysis methodology to calculate distances along a complex river network in the Peruvian Amazon

Distance is a key variable in explicating environmental, social, and economic conditions and in defining spatial and temporal patterns. Prior research has primarily focused on using simple to complex algorithms for calculating distances along road networks. In contrast, few algorithms are available for distance calculations along fluvial networks which are often more erratic, divergent and transient than road networks. Fluvial transportation is relied upon worldwide, particularly in developing regions, where communities use river networks for transportation, access to natural resources and for trade and commerce. This paper presents a methodology developed for mapping complex fluvial networks for travel distance analysis. The methodology was applied in four major river basins in western Amazonia over some 35,000 km of river length and incorporating 919 communities as origins/destinations. A cost path and network analysis methodology was created using vector and raster datasets in a Geographic Information System (GIS) to assess interactions among communities and the distances traveled by river to reach district capitals, major urban centres and marketplaces. An accuracy assessment using distance values calculated from a previous study using a different methodological approach in the region as well as Google Earth Pro, found a high degree of concordance for distance calculations. Our methodology creates a very flexible approach for complex river systems that can be use to calculate river distances in an adaptive and efficient manner and that can be use in other regions of the world where rural communities must rely on rivers for transportation.     

中国县域城镇化的道路交通影响因素识别及空间协同性解析

本文基于人口普查数据和路网数据,利用空间滞后回归模型和耦合协调度模型等,对中国县域城镇化率的道路交通影响及其空间耦合协同性进行分析,研究表明：①中国县域低城镇化水平的县(区)主要集中在传统农区、集中连片贫困山区、高寒经济欠发达区。经济发展水平与人力资源空间上的错位,致使经济欠发达地区的人口倒挂,异地城市化特征显著;②中国县(区)道路交通优势度宏观上呈现出东西部区域差异和交通枢纽与外围区域的差异,“点—轴”地域结构特征显著,县域道路交通优势度数值呈现偏正态分布;③道路交通是城镇间和城镇与区域间联系的核心纽带和产业转型升级发展的传输廊道,开放式的道路系统增强了农村生产要素非农化转型的市场可介入性,对县域城镇化发展有积极作用。高速公路出口、火车站的布局对城镇化影响和带动农村要素非农化作用较为明显;④中国县域交通优势度与城镇化率耦合协调度分级分布为偏正态分布,城镇化发展与交通优势度相互影响显著,呈一定的双向耦合性。     

长英质岩浆中不混溶流体的运移机理——兼论成矿作用发生的条件

与岩浆作用有关的热液矿床的形成,在一定程度上是岩浆体系内富含挥发分流体的组成、压力及性质演变的结果。长英质岩浆中无水硅酸盐矿物的结晶导致挥发性组分以气泡形式存在。气泡的体积随岩浆演化程度增强而不断增大,由于两不混溶流体之密度差而产生的力的作用使气泡相对硅酸盐熔体（＋晶体）超前向上迁移,最终到达岩浆房顶部。长英质岩浆中富含挥发分流体的迁移运动是通过气泡的上浮实现的。气泡能否上浮主要取决于气泡的体积大小和受力的强度。只有体积较大的气泡才可能迅速迁移并到达岩浆房顶部。修正后的Ｄａｒｃｙ定律对气泡（岩浆体系中的流体）的上述运动特征给予了物理学方法的描述。